Should Adley Rutschman play in the majors in 2021?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, you were nicer about it than I was..but your point was the same as mine.  The other answers just don’t make sense, especially those who want to wait until next year.  I can’t fathom the thought process that says, well you are doing well and are easily the right age but hey, you stay in the minors until you are even older and wear down more.

They want some magic window of contention in which Adley's entire Oriole career is spent on a playoff team.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, you were nicer about it than I was..but your point was the same as mine.  The other answers just don’t make sense, especially those who want to wait until next year.  I can’t fathom the thought process that says, well you are doing well and are easily the right age but hey, you stay in the minors until you are even older and wear down more.

That argument has nothing to do with player development and everything to do with keeping Rutschman from accruing service time during a year in which the team won’t be competitive.    I don’t advocate that as being sufficient reason to hold the guy back if he’s ready.    

[Aristotelian]

I went with "if we are contending" realizing that is a longshot, at least per MLB oddsmakers giving us 0% chance. Realistically, I want the extra year of control so would go with the 2022 option. You could make an argument for bringing him up this year after he qualifies for the additional year, but (1) I just have a hard time doing that without any high minors experience to go on, and (2) I want to maximize his time during our competitive window and we are still in rebuild phase. Either the team has to show something or Rutschman has to show something. With nothing to go on, I don't see any reason to bring him up now. 

You can make an argument that the Alternate Site experience "counts" as high minors but we just have no idea how to make that evaluation. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That argument has nothing to do with player development and everything to do with keeping Rutschman from accruing service time during a year in which the team won’t be competitive.    I don’t advocate that as being sufficient reason to hold the guy back if he’s ready.    

"If he's ready".

Of course anything can count as not being ready.

I look at it differently.

Will being in the minors likely benefit the player?

I don't think it will for Adley.

I don't think there is a single thing he can learn in the minors that he can't learn in the majors. 

[Just Regular]

I voted for #2, the Week 2 Adley one.   I think 150 games of acclimating for 2022 is twice as good as 75, and hope he'll take all our $$$ in Arb.

If feelers are being put out about the Orioles buying/Rutschman selling his Age-30 season, curious if folks think $20M does it, or if they'd feel good about the team staking 1/$20M on that season?   Realmuto in 2021 commences the current record catcher contract at $23M.

As for having a player struggle in the majors, its almost all theater.   You know who else struggles in the majors...Chris Davis, Andrew Velasquez, Dwight Smith, Asher Wojciechowski, Wade LeBlanc and on and on and on.

[wildcard]

Rutschman is going to begin the season at AA.   He has not played above low A up till now.   People here are always talking about SSS.  So how long does Rutschman need to play at AA before you know he has mastered the level?   Does he have to see teams through two series and face the adjustment they will through at him?  He may need to be at a  level for three months.

Then their is another set of challenges at AAA.  Elias wants him ready when he comes up.  He wants him as prepared as possible so he does not have to go back to the minors again.   I think you do not rush him.   Take the time to make sure he is ready.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

Rutschman is going to begin the season at AA.   He has not played above low A up till now.   People here are always talking about SSS.  So how long does Rutschman need to play at AA before you know he has mastered the level?   Does he have to see teams through two series and face the adjustment they will through at him?  He may need to be at a  level for three months.

Then their is another set of challenges at AAA.  Elias wants him ready when he comes up.  He wants him as prepared as possible so he does not have to go back to the minors again.   I think you do not rush him.   Take the time to make sure he is ready.

Nonsense.

Please explain to me how he NEEDS to be there for three months.

What will he get out of three months at AA that will be integral to his development?

What, exactly, do you think he can learn at AA that he can't learn elsewhere?  How to hit AA pitching?  Where the best rest stops are?  How comfortable the mattresses are at a Motel 6?

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

"If he's ready".

Of course anything can count as not being ready.

I look at it differently.

Will being in the minors likely benefit the player?

I don't think it will for Adley.

I don't think there is a single thing he can learn in the minors that he can't learn in the majors. 

I expect him to show he’s ready.   And mostly what I mean by that is ready to hit credibly in the major leagues.   I’m about 95% sure his defense is already major league average or better, based on what be read.   I think he’ll quickly show he looks ready to hit decently, but I want him to show it. 

As to whether there is anything he can learn in the minors he can’t learn in the majors, I do think you sometimes can learn better by doing progressively more difficult steps rather than just starting with the most difficult level.    Just for example, over the last year I took up playing Sodoku.   It took me months to get to the point where I could complete an “easy” puzzle, and when I did, it typically took me 30-60 minutes.   I finally by trial and error learned a few tricks and strategies and once things clicked the easy puzzles quickly became too easy and I moved up to more difficult puzzles.    I always had the ability, just not the experience and know how.   But I don’t think I ever would have learned by starting at a harder level, or at least, it would have taken me even longer.    I think this analogy applies to many minor leaguers, even including many high draft picks out of college.    Whether it fits Rutschman’s case, I don’t know.  But he’ll show us.  


 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I expect him to show he’s ready.   And mostly what I mean by that is ready to hit credibly in the major leagues.   I’m about 95% sure his defense is already major league average or better, based on what be read.   I think he’ll quickly show he looks ready to hit decently, but I want him to show it. 

As to whether there is anything he can learn in the minors he can’t learn in the majors, I do think you sometimes can learn better by doing progressively more difficult steps rather than just starting with the most difficult level.    Just for example, over the last year I took up playing Sodoku.   It took me months to get to the point where I could complete an “easy” puzzle, and when I did, it typically took me 30-60 minutes.   I finally by trial and error learned a few tricks and strategies and once things clicked the easy puzzles quickly became too easy and I moved up to more difficult puzzles.    I always had the ability, just not the experience and know how.   But I don’t think I ever would have learned by starting at a harder level, or at least, it would have taken me even longer.    I think this analogy applies to many minor leaguers, even including many high draft picks out of college.    Whether it fits Rutschman’s case, I don’t know.  But he’ll show us.  


 

I'm guessing that if you had played similar puzzles for years your learning curve would have been different, especially if you were seen as a puzzle solving prodigy.  Like I would expect a highly ranked chess player to be faster at picking up Go than a novice.

[Sports Guy]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That argument has nothing to do with player development and everything to do with keeping Rutschman from accruing service time during a year in which the team won’t be competitive.    I don’t advocate that as being sufficient reason to hold the guy back if he’s ready.    

And that’s a poor argument to have.

Btw, to be clear, I get why YOU used those answers in the poll itself.  I think for the purposes of what y are trying to show here that the answers you chose are fair.  I just think choosing them is horrible.

[Ruzious]

36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, you were nicer about it than I was..but your point was the same as mine.  The other answers just don’t make sense, especially those who want to wait until next year.  I can’t fathom the thought process that says, well you are doing well and are easily the right age but hey, you stay in the minors until you are even older and wear down more.

Right, and at 23... a top 2 prospect in baseball in an organization that needs to show some sign of life to keep its declining fan base.  By all reports was a man among boys last year.  But no matter what organization really... who keeps a 23 year old in the minors when he's regarded as a top 2 prospect in all of baseball?    

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Rutschman is going to begin the season at AA.   He has not played above low A up till now.   People here are always talking about SSS.  So how long does Rutschman need to play at AA before you know he has mastered the level?   Does he have to see teams through two series and face the adjustment they will through at him?  He may need to be at a  level for three months.

Then their is another set of challenges at AAA.  Elias wants him ready when he comes up.  He wants him as prepared as possible so he does not have to go back to the minors again.   I think you do not rush him.   Take the time to make sure he is ready.

There is basically no such thing as rushing a prospect.  That is such a bs, made up term.

So, you think his entire career would be effected if he is brought up immediately?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Ruzious said:

Right, and at 23... a top 2 prospect in baseball in an organization that needs to show some sign of life to keep its declining fan base.  By all reports was a man among boys last year.  But no matter what organization really... who keeps a 23 year old in the minors when he's regarded as a top 2 prospect in all of baseball?    

Exactly right.  People are acting like we are talk about bringing up a HS kid one year removed from the draft.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Exactly right.  People are acting like we are talk about bringing up a HS kid one year removed from the draft.

It is if the three years in a major college program means nothing to them.

 

[Aglets]

Can I have a list of highly touted college bats that never played in a minor league game above low A and went on to have very impressive careers?

I'm not saying the list doesn't exist.  I'm just trying to gather some data here.  And let's say in the past 30-35 years.