John Means 2021

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

We have no guarantee that the team will even make an effort to be competitive in 2022.

Also increases in attendance lags behind improvement on the field.  You know as well as anyone that season ticket sales are the key.

No doubt...but the improvement of this team will have almost nothing to do with what Elias does.  It will be based around the young talent and how well they produce.

If things are trending in the right direction by the end of the year, you certainly could see an uptick in season ticket/preseason sales, which accounts for a huge majority of sold tickets.

But you could also see an uptick on day of game sales next year.  The team still averages about 3k per game in terms of walk ups sales (in a normal year). That had been a pretty steady number for at least 20 years.  A young, exciting team that is winning could increase that.

However, there are other “outside” factors that could hurt attendance and that is certainly an unknown right now.

[connja]

This is becoming a fascinating situation for the O's.   Means has dominated the early part of the season.  If he can keep it up for the next couple months, you could hope someone knocks their socks off with an offer at the deadline.  He will have an incredible amount of value with 3 more years of control after this.  While getting closer to competitiveness, they would have to consider trading him.   Maybe the Mariners hang in there and want to make a splash?  White Sox are always ready to deal.    What would be a strong package for a 28 year old all-star starter with 3 more years of control?

[BohKnowsBmore]

25 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

So you're saying Means will be better?  You are right, Buerhle threw softer than I remember and Means' velocity has ticked up. Still Means is not exactly Nolan Ryan. We are talking 92-93.

But Means really makes his money on the CH and the disparity between the FB and CH velo. It's not even that he has to have pinpoint command, rather, hitters are frozen by an identical-looking pitch that comes in ~11-14 MPH slower than the other.

[jabba72]

13 minutes ago, connja said:

This is becoming a fascinating situation for the O's.   Means has dominated the early part of the season.  If he can keep it up for the next couple months, you could hope someone knocks their socks off with an offer at the deadline.  He will have an incredible amount of value with 3 more years of control after this.  While getting closer to competitiveness, they would have to consider trading him.   Maybe the Mariners hang in there and want to make a splash?  White Sox are always ready to deal.    What would be a strong package for a 28 year old all-star starter with 3 more years of control?

Personally, I would want more than what the O's got for Bedard.

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Personally, I would want more than what the O's got for Bedard.

Yea, trading him at the deadline this year would be 1.5 more years of control remaining than when the O's sent Bedard to the Mariners, and I think he may have demonstrated higher highs already.

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

So you're saying Means will be better?  You are right, Buerhle threw softer than I remember and Means' velocity has ticked up. Still Means is not exactly Nolan Ryan. We are talking 92-93.

Buehle also had better command, worked faster (not that Means works particularly slowly), and threw 200+ IP 14 years in a row (and then 198.2 the year he retired.     Still, I don’t think it’s a bad comp.   

[LocoChris]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

So you're saying Means will be better?  You are right, Buerhle threw softer than I remember and Means' velocity has ticked up. Still Means is not exactly Nolan Ryan. We are talking 92-93.

He could end up being better, Buehrle was overrated. Means won’t be in the league as long though, and his innings count will be lower. 

[connja]

2 hours ago, jabba72 said:

Personally, I would want more than what the O's got for Bedard.

I do hope they go for quality over quantity though.  Different time in the rebuild.  

[Pickles]

4 hours ago, connja said:

This is becoming a fascinating situation for the O's.   Means has dominated the early part of the season.  If he can keep it up for the next couple months, you could hope someone knocks their socks off with an offer at the deadline.  He will have an incredible amount of value with 3 more years of control after this.  While getting closer to competitiveness, they would have to consider trading him.   Maybe the Mariners hang in there and want to make a splash?  White Sox are always ready to deal.    What would be a strong package for a 28 year old all-star starter with 3 more years of control?

If you don't have two top 50 global prospects, then the conversation doesn't even begin.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, LocoChris said:

He could end up being better, Buehrle was overrated. Means won’t be in the league as long though, and his innings count will be lower. 

Who overrated Buehrle?  117 ERA+ over 16 years, .572 winning percentage, threw 200 IP 14 straight years, 214 wins, 59.1 rWAR.  I’d call him highly underrated.   

[Sports Guy]

I do think you have to at least see what’s out there for Means if he keeps it up.

Not saying you have to trade him but you do need to see what the value is.

Who could deal for him?  Who will have the combo of the prospects and the money to acquire him?

For example, Tampa has the prospects but probably wouldn’t want to pay the escalating salaries he will see.

[interloper]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I do think you have to at least see what’s out there for Means if he keeps it up.

Not saying you have to trade him but you do need to see what the value is.

Who could deal for him?  Who will have the combo of the prospects and the money to acquire him?

For example, Tampa has the prospects but probably wouldn’t want to pay the escalating salaries he will see.

I would trade John Means for:

-a real deal, offensive and defensive SS or 3B
AND
-a near-ready pitching prospect who is virtually guaranteed to be a solid ML #2 starter

Basically, I want Jones and Tillman. Otherwise, Means is too valuable as a guy who can get us to a competitive window, and you never know how quickly the flip switches and suddenly the team is clicking and you're competing. 

[Frobby]

Just now, interloper said:

I would trade John Means for:

-a real deal, offensive and defensive SS or 3B
AND
-a near-ready pitching prospect who is virtually guaranteed to be a solid ML #2 starter

Basically, I want Jones and Tillman. Otherwise, Means is too valuable as a guy who can get us to a competitive window, and you never know how quickly the flip switches and suddenly the team is clicking and you're competing. 

Is Means virtually guaranteed to be a solid ML #2 starter?   I mean, he’s pitching like a no. 1 right now, but “virtually guaranteed” is a pretty stiff standard.   

[interloper]

Just now, Frobby said:

Is Means virtually guaranteed to be a solid ML #2 starter?   I mean, he’s pitching like a no. 1 right now, but “virtually guaranteed” is a pretty stiff standard.   

Yes, he is haha. That's why I don't really want to trade him. If someone wants to pry him from me, I'm asking for the moon. 

[Sports Guy]

I think the best player that you may have some chance to acquire is Royce Lewis.