Trade Central Station

[Sanfran327]

Luke Scott to the Royals for Kila Ka' aihue (1B) & Mark Teahen (3B/OF).

Scott is a big upgrade over Teahen, while bringing leadership to a young impressionable team in KC. Scott is also cheap.

Ka'aihue is a late blooming 1B'man that could be a solid ML'er at a position of need. Teahen would be a versatile bench upgrade.

Teahen is looking more and more available. I think if the Royals had a player the caliber of Luke Scott to replace him, we could get him. Hopefully Crowley could help him turn the corner and become the productive major-leaguer everyone thought he'd be. And having some depth at 1st would be a nice bonus.

[Stotle]

So, you're of the belief in buying high, because if you wait for him to have a couple more years like last season, his cost goes up. Meanwhile, he projects to most people at the Orioles Hangout to be exactly what you said before that you'd prefer - to be a steady but unspectacular starter. This is a guy who seems to be able to pitch a lot of decent innings for you - in the Garland mode, imo. And he'll be getting paid at about 1/20th or so of what Garland's going to make.

Bolded text added for accuracy.

[GeorgiaBird]

On Sonnanstine, again, it is amazing some of the assumptions made here. He is certainly not untouchable but you are not going to get him for a couple of spare parts.

The Rays are going into this offseason knowing they need to make room for Price. At least three members of the current rotation are going to be shopped, with different price tags of course, and the guy to be traded is going to be the one who they get the best relative value for. So not only would you have to outbid other teams for Sonnanstine, you also have to present a more attractive deal than what they can get for Edwin Jackson and Scott Kazmir.

Honestly it would not surprise me if two of the above are traded. Not for Niemann. He is going to be traded as well. But the Rays are very interested in Kenshin Kawakami and are going to really look at signing him. If so they have two slots they have to open, because Price will be in the rotation.

[Stotle]

On Sonnanstine, again, it is amazing some of the assumptions made here. He is certainly not untouchable but you are not going to get him for a couple of spare parts.

The Rays are going into this offseason knowing they need to make room for Price. At least three members of the current rotation are going to be shopped, with different price tags of course, and the guy to be traded is going to be the one who they get the best relative value for. So not only would you have to outbid other teams for Sonnanstine, you also have to present a more attractive deal than what they can get for Edwin Jackson and Scott Kazmir.

Honestly it would not surprise me if two of the above are traded. Not for Niemann. He is going to be traded as well. But the Rays are very interested in Kenshin Kawakami and are going to really look at signing him. If so they have two slots they have to open, because Price will be in the rotation.

To be clear, you think if a team is interested in Sonnanstine, they will have to give up a Kazmir-style package? And also to be clear, the Rays don't want to keep any depth at AAA in case of injury, they want to trade everyone for....?

[GeorgiaBird]

To be clear, you think if a team is interested in Sonnanstine, they will have to give up a Kazmir-style package? And also to be clear, the Rays don't want to keep any depth at AAA in case of injury, they want to trade everyone for....?

Not at all. Which is why I said "relative value." You shop all the guys, and figure out which one gets you the best deal for your club.

As for the depth, it is of course possible not everyone will be traded. But Niemann is out of options and is not part of the picture. And they do have names like Talbot, Hellickson and Davis in the minors that would still give them better depth than most teams.

As for their needs, they are looking to get a power-hitting OF without a lot of service time.

[Stotle]

Not at all. Which is why I said "relative value." You shop all the guys, and figure out which one gets you the best deal for your club.

As for the depth, it is of course possible not everyone will be traded. But Niemann is out of options and is not part of the picture. And they do have names like Talbot, Hellickson and Davis in the minors that would still give them better depth than most teams.

As for their needs, they are looking to get a power-hitting OF without a lot of service time.

If that's true then TAM absolutely wasted Niemann.

I don't see how anyone other than Kaz gets them a power-hitting OF with not much service time. That's a pretty valuable piece.

[GeorgiaBird]

I think it is fair to say that Niemann has been a bit of a train wreck. I think the Rays are hoping that he has put up good enough numbers in the MiL that someone will take a risk on him and give value in return, but the truth is he is out of options and has been passed on the depth chart by a lot of guys. If they really get nothing back there is a chance he will be on the team, but I don't think he has done a lot to make the major league coaching staff push for him.

[allstar1579]

So, you're of the belief in buying high, because if you wait for him to have a couple more years like last season, his cost goes up. Meanwhile, he projects to most people to be exactly what you said before that you'd prefer - to be a steady but unspectacular starter. This is a guy who seems to be able to pitch a lot of decent innings for you - in the Garland mode, imo. And he'll be getting paid at about 1/20th or so of what Garland's going to make.

No, I am of the belief that you don't pay high for unknown returns. You want to give up a package worth an established young pitcher, for a guy that has one decent year in the majors. I know we are all anxious to get better, and we all think the key to that is to steal young talent from other teams, but if you are going to give up that much, it's not stealing talent, it's overpaying for it. Maybe in a few years he is putting up Garland numbers over 3 full seasons, or maybe in 3 years he has an ERA in the high 4's and is relegated to long and spot duty.

[Stotle]

I think it is fair to say that Niemann has been a bit of a train wreck. I think the Rays are hoping that he has put up good enough numbers in the MiL that someone will take a risk on him and give value in return, but the truth is he is out of options and has been passed on the depth chart by a lot of guys. If they really get nothing back there is a chance he will be on the team, but I don't think he has done a lot to make the major league coaching staff push for him.

Wow, I certainly don't agree with that. Besides being solid from a production standpoint, you don't teach 6'9" / 260. He should have gotten a legit shot this year. If TAM trades him at a discount it's a waste, because Sonnanstine is a #4 at his very, very best, and Jackson is in the same boat. Bad decision making, in my opinion (but hey, what do I know, right?).

[Sports Guy]

No, I am of the belief that you don't pay high for unknown returns. You want to give up a package worth an established young pitcher, for a guy that has one decent year in the majors. I know we are all anxious to get better, and we all think the key to that is to steal young talent from other teams, but if you are going to give up that much, it's not stealing talent, it's overpaying for it. Maybe in a few years he is putting up Garland numbers over 3 full seasons, or maybe in 3 years he has an ERA in the high 4's and is relegated to long and spot duty.

Sonnanstine had solid MiL numbers as well....All the reason to think he can be a good pitcher.

There isn't any indiciation in his history that says he will not be a solid starter.

Of course injuries and things like that can happen.

However, he is every bit as good as Guthrie(if you look at the stats other than ERA) right now and has a better future outlook than JG does.

[Stotle]

Sonnanstine had solid MiL numbers as well....All the reason to think he can be a good pitcher.

There isn't any indiciation in his history that says he will not be a solid starter.

Of course injuries and things like that can happen.

However, he is every bit as good as Guthrie(if you look at the stats other than ERA) right now and has a better future outlook than JG does.

I know we're going around in circles, but this just isn't true. He isn't a good pitcher and he gets hit very, very hard. This year is likely his absolute ceiling. #4/5 starter. The odds of him repeating this are much worse than the odds of him regressing. If TAM can get someone to give up anything of value for him, they'd be wise to jump at it.

[GeorgiaBird]

Wow, I certainly don't agree with that. Besides being solid from a production standpoint, you don't teach 6'9" / 260. He should have gotten a legit shot this year. If TAM trades him at a discount it's a waste, because Sonnanstine is a #4 at his very, very best, and Jackson is in the same boat. Bad decision making, in my opinion (but hey, what do I know, right?).

When I said he has not done much to help his cause, I did not mean production. But I stand by what I said that on the field, guys like Talbot, Hellickson and Davis (not to mention Price, of course), have passed him on their depth chart. Tampa has organizational depth at SP, and of the guys they have Niemann (based on his lack of options and attitude) is the preferred one to find a new home for.

But that is besides the point. If other teams agree with your assessment of him, Tampa will not have to trade him for a discount. The fact that you are probably right and multiple teams will be interested, coupled with the fact that he is out of options, makes him likely trade bait.

I do think Tampa's opinion on Sonnanstine is much higher than your's.

[Stotle]

When I said he has not done much to help his cause, I did not mean production. But I stand by what I said that on the field, guys like Talbot, Hellickson and Davis (not to mention Price, of course), have passed him on their depth chart.

But that is besides the point. If other teams agree with your assessment of him, Tampa will not have to trade him for a discount. The fact that you are probably right and multiple teams will be interested, coupled with the fact that he is out of options, makes him likely trade bait.

I do think Tampa's opinion on Sonnanstine is much higher than your's.

I don't disagree that some of those guys have higher upside than Niemann, but other than Price none are as ML-ready as Niemann. Davis looked much better once he got to Durham, but his 20 or so starts in Montgomery were up-and-down, to say the least. I still love him, just saying he isn't "there" yet.

Hellickson needs more time at AA but looks very good.

I disagree that Talbot is better than Niemann. Niemann has much better stuff, in my opinion. Talbot looks like a back-ender while Niemann looks like a #3 that still has #2 upside even with his inconsistencies.

McGee was better, but we'll now have to wait and see what he comes back as.

[GeorgiaBird]

I don't disagree that some of those guys have higher upside than Niemann, but other than Price none are as ML-ready as Niemann.

But who cares about that? Your original point was to criticize the Rays for trading Niemann, saying that they don't care about organizational depth. Right here...

And also to be clear, the Rays don't want to keep any depth at AAA in case of injury, they want to trade everyone for....?

Talented guys who are not yet ready do pretty well as organizational depth.

What this comes down to is should they dump Sonny for Niemann in their rotation next year. You obviously believe they should. I think they would argue back that breaking in one rookie, no matter how good, is enough and Sonnanstine is a good inning-eater at the back of the rotation.

I think they would hope your assessment of Niemann is accurate. If so I think they would gladly take the value they can get for him, Jackson and perhaps Brignac and go into the season with a rotation of Garza/Shields/Kaz/Sonnanstine/Price.

[Stotle]

But who cares about that? Your original point was to criticize the Rays for trading Niemann, saying that they don't care about organizational depth. Right here...

Talented guys who are not yet ready do pretty well as organizational depth.

What this comes down to is should they dump Sonny for Niemann in their rotation next year. You obviously believe they should. I think they would argue back that breaking in one rookie, no matter how good, is enough and Sonnanstine is a good inning-eater at the back of the rotation.

I think they would hope your assessment of Niemann is accurate. If so I think they would gladly take the value they can get for him, Jackson and perhaps Brignac and go into the season with a rotation of Garza/Shields/Kaz/Sonnanstine/Price.

Not exactly. I'm talking about in-season depth. They should be going into 09 assuming they'll need 8-10 capable starters. Davis/Hellickson wouldn't qualify in my book, though they could probably produce at a back-end level if need be. My point remains that having Niemann be the guy that never gets a chance while you play Sonnanstine/Jackson (I'd agree if it were 2003)/Talbot is a poor decision. Niemann is a better prospect/package than any of those three, and regardless of how other teams value him TAM doesn't have any leverage if their choice is to expose him or trade him. Further, no matter what a team gives it won't be for #3 value considering they can say to TAM -- "If he's a #3 why are you promoting a bunch of back-enders in front of him?".

I don't think they need to part with a bunch of pitchers, the depth is good so keep it. I'd love to have Sonnanstine ready to step-in if there's an injury. I just don't want him ever throwing any meaningful innings for me. Just let Price/Niemann/Talbot/Jackson/Sonnanstine compete for the finals two rotation spots in the Spring. Niemann performed and still wasn't given a shot this year -- it's kind of silly. Oh well, TAM is much more in the know so they must see something big I'm missing.