Adley Rutschman 2021

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am concerned that Adley may tire out.  Running around the bases as much as he does has to take a lot out of him.

He's conserving his strength by not pulling the ball on his dongs.  Learned it from Gunnar.

[LookinUp]

On 6/10/2021 at 6:21 AM, Moose Milligan said:

If AR is what this guy says he is he gets to beat his chest. If AR is God and this guy is wrong? Who cares, whatever his take at that moment was will be buried under a deluge of other takes since posted. Hardly anyone will remember or care. 

Am I the only one on this board who questions AR's hit tool? 

Defense sounds great. Power is likely above a 50, probably a 60. Plate discipline looks great. But the hit tool?

So far to me he looks like a guy who will have a high OPS driven by walks, HR and a relatively low batting average (e.g., .250 - .265). Add great defense and you have a very valuable player, but not necessarily that once in a generation guy. There's nothing wrong with that profile. It's just not a perfect profile.

[glenn__davis]

16 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Am I the only one on this board who questions AR's hit tool? 

Not sure why you would think you're alone in that.  I think there have been plenty of comments questioning his hit tool.

[LookinUp]

Just now, glenn__davis said:

Not sure why you would think you're alone in that.  I think there have been plenty of comments questioning his hit tool.

I guess that's true. I just don't think we should be dismissive of people like that BP writer. 

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Am I the only one on this board who questions AR's hit tool? 

Defense sounds great. Power is likely above a 50, probably a 60. Plate discipline looks great. But the hit tool?

So far to me he looks like a guy who will have a high OPS driven by walks, HR and a relatively low batting average (e.g., .250 - .265). Add great defense and you have a very valuable player, but not necessarily that once in a generation guy. There's nothing wrong with that profile. It's just not a perfect profile.

Yea, I think it’s fair to say we shouldn’t expect him to hit 300 in the majors.

But a 260/380/550 type slash line is very possible imo.

[LookinUp]

And very valuable. That looks like a 50 hit tool with 60 power and 60-70 OBP to me. Add in great defense and it's very nice.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, I think it’s fair to say we shouldn’t expect him to hit 300 in the majors.

But a 260/380/550 type slash line is very possible imo.

Who hits 300 anymore?  Not many guys.

[LookinUp]

31 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Who hits 300 anymore?  Not many guys.

Right now? 13 people.

https://www.mlb.com/stats/batting-average

A .260 average would put him at 68th in MLB, so slightly worse than the 2nd average guy per team, on average. That's not a glowing batting average, which is what many expected from the #1 overall pick in the draft and #2 rated prospect. I'm ok with it. If his OPS ends up in the .900 range, that's closer to top 15-20 in the league. Paired with excellent D and that's very valuable.

 

[jabba72]

7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Right now? 13 people.

https://www.mlb.com/stats/batting-average

A .260 average would put him at 68th in MLB, so slightly worse than the 2nd average guy per team, on average. That's not a glowing batting average, which is what many expected from the #1 overall pick in the draft and #2 rated prospect. I'm ok with it. If his OPS ends up in the .900 range, that's closer to top 15-20 in the league. Paired with excellent D and that's very valuable.

 

We should be doing cartwheels if AR puts up a 900 OPS in the majors. Buster Posey's first 6 full years in the majors he had an .862 OPS. To me thats the absolute best case scenario. If AR topped that then he would prove to be a great pick. 

[LookinUp]

7 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

We should be doing cartwheels if AR puts up a 900 OPS in the majors. Buster Posey's first 6 full years in the majors he had an .862 OPS. To me thats the absolute best case scenario. If AR topped that then he would prove to be a great pick. 

Agree. SG posted a .930 number, but I agree that’s a quite rich.

[LTO's]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

I guess that's true. I just don't think we should be dismissive of people like that BP writer. 

I was specifically dismissive of the 50 grade on the power. In my opinion, it’s indefensible although I have not been able to read the article and am just going off what OD described.
 

He has your modern day uppercut swing. With it, he might not bat .300 but he’s going to absolutely demolish some baseballs. You don’t put a 50 on that. 

[ArtVanDelay]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, I think it’s fair to say we shouldn’t expect him to hit 300 in the majors.

But a 260/380/550 type slash line is very possible imo.

And he would be easily the best catcher in baseball with that slash line. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Right now? 13 people.

https://www.mlb.com/stats/batting-average

A .260 average would put him at 68th in MLB, so slightly worse than the 2nd average guy per team, on average. That's not a glowing batting average, which is what many expected from the #1 overall pick in the draft and #2 rated prospect. I'm ok with it. If his OPS ends up in the .900 range, that's closer to top 15-20 in the league. Paired with excellent D and that's very valuable.

 

Even at 1-1 if you got a guy with plus power, plus selectivity and plus defense at a premium position you are doing just fine.

[Pickles]

On 6/11/2021 at 3:53 PM, ArtVanDelay said:

And he would be easily the best catcher in baseball with that slash line. 

And if he did it for the best part of a decade, he'd be very close to the HOF.

I really think we need to temper expectations.  

That should be our best-case scenario.

It's likely to fall short of that.

[Yossarian]

I just have visions of Matt Weiters in my head.  Weiters with better defense.