2022 early look top prospects

[Sports Guy]

42 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

We don't disagree on theory. I'm just more willing to see which way they go and not assume they were:

1. Stupid

2. Cheap

3. Incompetent 

If they don't follow a "fan popular/consensus driven" approach. 

2019 Rutschman/Henderson/Stowers

2020 Kjerstad/Westburg/Mayo

2021 Cowser?

IMO, they hit home runs with the first two drafts.  2021 looks meh to this point.

2022 ?  

 

Well 2019, they basically went BPA with the first pick, so this strategy wasn’t really used.  Adley did sign for under slot but then again, so will any player we take #1 this year.

In 2020, while the draft looks good, you can also say that it could look better if they didn’t go Kjerstad 2..of course, it could also look worse.  We should be looking for the best possible outcomes possible with each pick. 

2021 is an early failure for sure.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I don't get why people say this.  Is this supposed to matter to anyone?  This is one of the dumbest things people say on here.  Why do you discuss anything if basically all you are going to do is bow down to what the Os do?

I remember being on this board and complaining about moves from Syd Thrift, Beattie, Flanny, et al and people saying those guys have the jobs, so obviously they know more.  

So are people not supposed to give their thoughts on a message board because Elias knows more?  

Oh and poo pooing historical data is comical.

I'm quite sure that Elias and company can make bad decisions. I'm sure that taking the BPA at #1 can be the right decision or the wrong decision. I'm sure we all have opinions, I just don't think they're necessarily valuable opinions.

And I don't poo poo historical data. I do recognize that they're working with much better data than a linear list of total WAR in the modern draft era. They understand what's available at the top of the draft and later in the draft. They know what's available later in the draft and what those players are asking for.

And they'll build a model that attempts to optimize the total value in the draft. And you don't.

I don't mean to shut down discussion, and I think your thoughts are usually thoughtful and interesting, but my bottom line is the same. I'll defer to a group that employs the most modern methodology ever.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm quite sure that Elias and company can make bad decisions. I'm sure that taking the BPA at #1 can be the right decision or the wrong decision. I'm sure we all have opinions, I just don't think they're necessarily valuable opinions.

And I don't poo poo historical data. I do recognize that they're working with much better data than a linear list of total WAR in the modern draft era. They understand what's available at the top of the draft and later in the draft. They know what's available later in the draft and what those players are asking for.

And they'll build a model that attempts to optimize the total value in the draft. And you don't.

I don't mean to shut down discussion, and I think your thoughts are usually thoughtful and interesting, but my bottom line is the same. I'll defer to a group that employs the most modern methodology ever.

Great..so why post about it?  If all you are going to do is kiss their ass and assume they are always right, why ever post an opinion?  
 

And I wonder if they understood what was available later in the draft in 2021 when they took Cowser to save money and did a poor job of using the savings later?

I wonder if they understood when teams Like Pitt took high end talent for 3 rounds in a row and the Orioles let it pass by?

But hey, we should go with whatever Elias does and not question anything because he has a great model.  It’s probably the same model that they use that keeps our players so healthy.

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Great..so why post about it?  If all you are going to do is kiss their ass and assume they are always right, why ever post an opinion?  
 

And I wonder if they understood what was available later in the draft in 2021 when they took Cowser to save money and did a poor job of using the savings later?

I wonder if they understood when teams Like Pitt took high end talent for 3 rounds in a row and the Orioles let it pass by?

But hey, we should go with whatever Elias does and not question anything because he has a great model.  It’s probably the same model that they use that keeps our players so healthy.

Pretty quick to pass a final judgment on the 2021 draft. Too early to tell what we have in Cowser/Rhodes/Willems.  I'll be the first to say that Lawlar looks better than all three combined but the book is not finished yet.

When you say they did a poor job of using the savings that is premature and somewhat ignorant. 

[LookinUp]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Great..so why post about it?  If all you are going to do is kiss their ass and assume they are always right, why ever post an opinion?  
 

And I wonder if they understood what was available later in the draft in 2021 when they took Cowser to save money and did a poor job of using the savings later?

I wonder if they understood when teams Like Pitt took high end talent for 3 rounds in a row and the Orioles let it pass by?

But hey, we should go with whatever Elias does and not question anything because he has a great model.  It’s probably the same model that they use that keeps our players so healthy.

My post pushing back against your posts are just as valid as anything you're posting. It's our opinions in both cases, you just don't like it when people point out that, in the absence of saving money, your opinion is quite literally you believing in your intuition more than the ability of the O's to scout and draft talent. I think that's silly with this group because they have had some success.

And I don't write off Norby, Trimble, Rhodes and Tavera yet. Willems has a big step to take, but even if he crashes and burns, it doesn't mean the rest of that draft is a failure.

But yeah, in hindsight, I'm sure we'll be able to chart out a scenario where any team could have done better using your methodology. That's the benefit of hindsight.

 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

No doubt but the concept is stupid.  

I tend to agree that Holliday is the most likely pick right now.  I think that is a very good pick but not the best pick.  

My other issue is that I don't buy the Orioles will do what Pitt did last year and grab 3 first round talents with their next 3 picks.  

How do you judge who was a first round talent?   The next 3 guys they picked got bonuses of $2.8 mm (Solometo), $1.5 mm (Lonnie White) and $3 mm (Bubba Chandler).  White’s bonus was overslot, but only equivalent to the 49th pick’s slot.  The other two got paid similar to 22-25 slot.   So I’d say they paid two guys after Davis first-round money, not three.

The Pirates had more money to play with from their 1st pick savings ($2.9 mm) than the O’s did when they picked Kjerstad ($2.5 mm) or Cowser ($1.2 mm).   

Looks like the Pirate guys have had a bit of the injury bug.  Solomoto has only pitched 13 innings and is on the 7 day IL now after not debuting until May 27, and White hasn’t played this year and is on the 60-day IL.  Chandler played a short stint in the FCL last year but is back at that level this year for some reason.  


 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

How do you judge who was a first round talent?   The next 3 guys they picked got bonuses of $2.8 mm (Solometo), $1.5 mm (Lonnie White) and $3 mm (Bubba Chandler).  White’s bonus was overslot, but only equivalent to the 49th pick’s slot.  The other two got paid similar to 22-25 slot.   So I’d say they paid two guys after Davis first-round money, not three.

The Pirates had more money to play with from their 1st pick savings ($2.9 mm) than the O’s did when they picked Kjerstad ($2.5 mm) or Cowser ($1.2 mm).   

Looks like the Pirate guys have had a bit of the injury bug.  Solomoto has only pitched 13 innings and is on the 7 day IL now after not debuting until May 27, and White hasn’t played this year and is on the 60-day IL.  Chandler played a short stint in the FCL last year but is back at that level this year for some reason.  


 

It's all a crapshoot anyway.

[Sports Guy]

51 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Pretty quick to pass a final judgment on the 2021 draft. Too early to tell what we have in Cowser/Rhodes/Willems.  I'll be the first to say that Lawlar looks better than all three combined but the book is not finished yet.

When you say they did a poor job of using the savings that is premature and somewhat ignorant. 

Well, I said it last year when they did it and so far I’m right.  And it’s not the players as much as the strategy. I’m just not excited about the strategy of not taking your BPA with that high pick and I feel they didn’t do that in 2021.  They may have in 2020.  

Its also premature to rate 2020 as a success considering none of them have done anything in the majors either but yet you are doing it. 
 

That said, I certainly agree that there is plenty of time to turn things around and I like Cowser and expect him to be starting in Baltimore by this time next year.

[Sports Guy]

27 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

My post pushing back against your posts are just as valid as anything you're posting. It's our opinions in both cases, you just don't like it when people point out that, in the absence of saving money, your opinion is quite literally you believing in your intuition more than the ability of the O's to scout and draft talent. I think that's silly with this group because they have had some success.

And I don't write off Norby, Trimble, Rhodes and Tavera yet. Willems has a big step to take, but even if he crashes and burns, it doesn't mean the rest of that draft is a failure.

But yeah, in hindsight, I'm sure we'll be able to chart out a scenario where any team could have done better using your methodology. That's the benefit of hindsight.

 

Kiley McDaniel is essentially verifying exactly what I’m saying and he has done it with several different tidbits, including the one where he says teams routinely overpay a player because they get stuck and have money and take a chance.  

My entire point in all of this is that I don’t want the Orioles to do just that and again, remembering that this point is being made on the back drop of the complete and utter failure of this organization putting together a respectable ML product for the previous 3 years.  If that’s is your goal (and yes, that was 100% their goal), you need to turn these drafts into home runs.  Not singles or doubles.

To take this to another sport, the Ravens are routinely one of the best drafting teams in the league(btw, Sid has been in their draft room before) .  Some of that is luck but a lot of is them being true to their board and taking BPA. 
 

They took a safety with their first pick this year..a position they don’t need but he was the best player on their board, so they took him.  That is the strategy I like and one that works.

[RZNJ]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I said it last year when they did it and so far I’m right.  And it’s not the players as much as the strategy. I’m just not excited about the strategy of not taking your BPA with that high pick and I feel they didn’t do that in 2021.  They may have in 2020.  

Its also premature to rate 2020 as a success considering none of them have done anything in the majors either but yet you are doing it. 
 

That said, I certainly agree that there is plenty of time to turn things around and I like Cowser and expect him to be starting in Baltimore by this time next year.

I said it looks like they hit a home run in both the 2019 and 2020 drafts, meaning up to this point in time. 

[RZNJ]

32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Kiley McDaniel is essentially verifying exactly what I’m saying and he has done it with several different tidbits, including the one where he says teams routinely overpay a player because they get stuck and have money and take a chance.  

My entire point in all of this is that I don’t want the Orioles to do just that and again, remembering that this point is being made on the back drop of the complete and utter failure of this organization putting together a respectable ML product for the previous 3 years.  If that’s is your goal (and yes, that was 100% their goal), you need to turn these drafts into home runs.  Not singles or doubles.

To take this to another sport, the Ravens are routinely one of the best drafting teams in the league(btw, Sid has been in their draft room before) .  Some of that is luck but a lot of is them being true to their board and taking BPA. 
 

They took a safety with their first pick this year..a position they don’t need but he was the best player on their board, so they took him.  That is the strategy I like and one that works.

Again, I agree with you in theory.  Just interesting that you point at that McDaniel agrees with you.  When Keith Law disagrees with you and says he'd take Johnson or Holliday if he could save 2M, you point out that he's not always right.

Do you believe that some teams have Holliday #1 on their board?

[Frobby]

To me, there’s no fixed answer to whether BPA vs. underslot is the best strategy.   It depends on how you weigh the various options for the high pick, how far apart their demands are, and what you think you can do with the savings.   It’s that simple (or complicated).   There’s a lot of information the team has and we don’t regarding all of that.  So, I refuse to drive myself crazy guessing what they’ll do, or second guessing it after the fact.   I will just root for the ultimate outcome to be a good one.   We don’t really know yet how any of the 2019-21 drafts will turn out.  

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I said it looks like they hit a home run in both the 2019 and 2020 drafts, meaning up to this point in time. 

Great and in 2019, they did the right thing.  They didn’t go below slot and get a lesser player to spend more later. 

 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Again, I agree with you in theory.  Just interesting that you point at that McDaniel agrees with you.  When Keith Law disagrees with you and says he'd take Johnson or Holliday if he could save 2M, you point out that he's not always right.

No one is always right but yes, I think McDaniel has a better feel for the strategy and thoughts on it than Law does.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To me, there’s no fixed answer to whether BPA vs. underslot is the best strategy.   It depends on how you weigh the various options for the high pick, how far apart their demands are, and what you think you can do with the savings.   It’s that simple (or complicated).   There’s a lot of information the team has and we don’t regarding all of that.  So, I refuse to drive myself crazy guessing what they’ll do, or second guessing it after the fact.   I will just root for the ultimate outcome to be a good one.   We don’t really know yet how any of the 2019-21 drafts will turn out.  

It depends on the draft.  Some drafts aren’t strong at the top but they are deeper (I think 2020 is an example of that).  

Some drafts aren’t deep but have high level talent at the top.  
 

But overall you should never ever pass on high level talent just to increase your chances on getting lesser talent later.