2022 early look top prospects

[RZNJ]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Great and in 2019, they did the right thing.  They didn’t go below slot and get a lesser player to spend more later. 

 

And in 2020 they passed on the consensus #1 player to take Kjerstad.  It doesn't matter that you didn't like Martin.  It matters that all publications had him #1 or #2 and the Orioles passed.  They went against the Baseball America board and ended up better for it.  

[btdart20]

My $0.02:  Go BPA early and often and just throw the money around at the table with the first 4-5 picks especially.  It wouldn't take much for us to drafting/signing 4 $2+m guys (i.e. 1st round types).  The #33 or #42 picks might be the only 'cost-sensitive' decision for me (probably based on rankings within tiers), so I could have enough dry powder for the #67 pick to get them to in the $2m ballpark (assuming the 5% overage is spent).  We could probably get the #81 pick into the $1.25-1.5m range as well.  That's a lot of money for an 18-20 y/o to walk away gambling a higher slot and delaying pay day. 

Only way to get a fifth draftee/the #81 pick over $2m is to short the 1.1 pick fairly significantly.  Which likely means, not Jones.  This is where the question about how deep the draft pool is.

Maybe it's a false hope and I'm buying beach-front property in AZ, but my reading of the tea leaves thinks that the pool of talent is fairly deep.  Especially HS arms (which yes, carry more risk of failure/injury).  Throw in a few guys publicly positioning for over-slot money (like Dutkanych) which would mean some teams would mean teams with tighter draft pools may avoid him.  Seems like a pretty big quant-crunch.

To stretch the pool to have 6 $2m signees (i.e. to go the 'Pirates' path), we'd need to find $3.73m somewhere (to get pick 42, 67, 81, and 107 up to $2m).  After the $850k allowed overage, that puts the gap at $2.88m.  What are the odds that any of the top few guys (Johnson?) sign for $6m?

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No one is always right but yes, I think McDaniel has a better feel for the strategy and thoughts on it than Law does.

Ok. McDaniel has Johnson a close #2 to Jones and would understand if the O's took Johnson and saved 2M.  Still think he has a good feel for it?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

And in 2020 they passed on the consensus #1 player to take Kjerstad.  It doesn't matter that you didn't like Martin.  It matters that all publications had him #1 or #2 and the Orioles passed.  They went against the Baseball America board and ended up better for it.  

Well we don’t know that they ended better for it.  Maybe Martin ends up being better than Kjerstad.  Maybe Baumler never stays healthy.  Maybe all you end up with is Westburg and Mayo, 2 players you could have had anyway.  
 

You are saying I’m judging 2021 too quickly yet you are fine with doing the same thing for 2021 and before you say that we have more data because it’s a year earlier, 2 of those players have barely played.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Ok. McDaniel has Johnson a close #2 to Jones and would understand if the O's took Johnson and saved 2M.  Still think he has a good feel for it?

I think he has a good feel for what I just said..the process and strategy.

I personally don’t like the idea of a short second baseman with questionable athleticism and perhaps not as high a hit tool with the first pick, especially with better options out there.

McDaniel also doesn’t see a spot for him until 6th if we don’t take him. 
 

I have said anywhere from 5-8 makes sense and would be happy to have him there if that’s where we were picking.

[Hank Scorpio]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Great and in 2019, they did the right thing.  They didn’t go below slot and get a lesser player to spend more later. 

 

Probably viewed Rutschman as being too good to pass up.

When you need talent, spreading it out isn't a terrible idea unless you've got a kid like that available. 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think he has a good feel for what I just said..the process and strategy.

I personally don’t like the idea of a short second baseman with questionable athleticism and perhaps not as high a hit tool with the first pick, especially with better options out there.

McDaniel also doesn’t see a spot for him until 6th if we don’t take him. 
 

I have said anywhere from 5-8 makes sense and would be happy to have him there if that’s where we were picking.

Where are you getting “perhaps not as high a hit tool?”   The only reason you take Johnson is if you believe with some degree of confidence that he has the best hit tool in the draft.   There’d be no other reason to take him.   

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Probably viewed Rutschman as being too good to pass up.

When you need talent, spreading it out isn't a terrible idea unless you've got a kid like that available. 

Well the Orioles are also past the “need talent stage”. They have the best farm system.  They need difference making talent.

Swing for the fences with the first pick.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Where are you getting “perhaps not as high a hit tool?”   The only reason you take Johnson is if you believe with some degree of confidence that he has the best hit tool in the draft.   There’d be no other reason to take him.   

Well Law said it and some of his stats in the other league(s) he has been against better completion haven’t been as good. 
 

Maybe Law is wrong and maybe he has been unlucky.  I don’t know.  But I don’t want him even if he has a true 70 hit tool.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well Law said it and some of his stats in the other league(s) he has been against better completion haven’t been as good. 
 

Maybe Law is wrong and maybe he has been unlucky.  I don’t know.  But I don’t want him even if he has a true 70 hit tool.

To be clear, I don’t know if I want Johnson or not, but I certainly would not want him unless Elias & co. believed he had the best hit tool in the draft by some margin.  If they don’t think he has that, there’s no amount of savings that would make it make sense to take him.  

[Hank Scorpio]

28 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well the Orioles are also past the “need talent stage”. They have the best farm system.  They need difference making talent.

Swing for the fences with the first pick.

Yessir, agree.... assuming they evaluate Jones as a no brainer.

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Yessir, agree.... assuming they evaluate Jones as a no brainer.

Or Holliday or whoever.  I feel that have passed on better talent (ie higher rated talent on their board) in the past, at least w/r/t Cowser, to save money to spend later.

That is what I think is dumb.  Taking a less talent to save money to then take even lesser talents later on.  The logic just isn’t there for me, especially when you can still afford that talent later anyway.

[geschinger]

48 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well Law said it and some of his stats in the other league(s) he has been against better completion haven’t been as good. 
 

Maybe Law is wrong and maybe he has been unlucky.  I don’t know.  But I don’t want him even if he has a true 70 hit tool.

Who knows how these guys are ultimately graded but everything I've read leans towards his hit tool being the best and in the Callis article he references there are some scouts who have put an 80 grade on his hit tool.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I think he has a good feel for what I just said..the process and strategy.

I personally don’t like the idea of a short second baseman with questionable athleticism and perhaps not as high a hit tool with the first pick, especially with better options out there.

McDaniel also doesn’t see a spot for him until 6th if we don’t take him. 
 

I have said anywhere from 5-8 makes sense and would be happy to have him there if that’s where we were picking.

You keep saying Termarr Johnson has questionable athleticism.  What does that mean to you?  I have not seen one draft writeup ANYWHERE that questions his athleticism.  

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Or Holliday or whoever.  I feel that have passed on better talent (ie higher rated talent on their board) in the past, at least w/r/t Cowser, to save money to spend later.

That is what I think is dumb.  Taking a less talent to save money to then take even lesser talents later on.  The logic just isn’t there for me, especially when you can still afford that talent later anyway.

Jordan Lawlar was rated by Baseball America as the #1 player last year yet 4 other teams besides the Orioles passed on him.  Makes you wonder just how highly he was rated by the actual teams.