Where are the undervalued guys from other organizations?

[Tony-OH]

When Elias took over, we were told Sig's analytics would be able to identify players in other organizations that would be undervalued and acquired. Apparently, the rest of the league are doing the same things so it's no longer an advantage and the guys they have found have generally failed.

If you want to know why the team has completely stunk while trying to rebuild, it's been the absolute failure of Elias/Sig to acquire players that can help at the major league level through undervalued players. While we still don't know about the talent received in trades or the drafting ability of Sig/Elias, what we do know is they get an F at acquiring major league ready talent that is under utilized by other organizations.

Rio Ruiz: Fail
Wojo: Fail
Severino; Backup catcher at best on a good team
Valiaka: Utility guy at best
Andrew Velazquez: fail
Martin: .581 OPS, now an injury prone AAA guy.
Eshelmen: Long guy/AAA guy
Fulmer: Gave him quick look, gave up on him, quickly picked up and now pitching in Red bullpen with a 4.19 FIP
Urias: Fail
Alberto: back up guy or lower division starter
Armstrong: Middle relief at best
Plutko: long guy innings eater used poorly by coaching staff
Lakins: Middle reliever
Sulser: middle reliever
Valdez: Did they find him because of analytics or got lucky, not sure?
Broxton: fail
Aaron Brooks: Fail

 

[Moose Milligan]

I don't disagree with the premise, however we've got two guys right now that were in our system (Means and Mullins) who were undervalued by us.  While I agree that it's fun to pick up guys from other organizations and have them become stars, it's also nice when guys you were sleeping on from your own system are surpassing expectations, too.

 

[Sports Guy]

A lot of the trades he has made has been for players like this..undervalued guys, like Bradish.

I think we need to see how they develop.

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't disagree with the premise, however we've got two guys right now that were in our system (Means and Mullins) who were undervalued by us.  While I agree that it's fun to pick up guys from other organizations and have them become stars, it's also nice when guys you were sleeping on from your own system are surpassing expectations, too.

 

What do you mean they were undervalued by "us?"

Means wen into the offseason and learned that changeup. He also increased his velocity by going to a performance place, not because of something the organization did for him. I know he's tangibly given some credit to Holt for the changeup, but I don't think the Orioles under Elias suddenly developed Means.

As for Mullins, he was always a prospect. it wasn't until he finally decided on his own to give up switch hitting did he become an everyday guy. When the organization tried to makes some changes with him two years ago you saw how awful he was.

Elias felt so good about him he sent him all the way to AA in 2019.

Over his last 109 PAs, Mullins is slashing .242/.330/.400/.730. Not terrible, but let's not start calling him a success story of the regime.

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

A lot of the trades he has made has been for players like this..undervalued guys, like Bradish.

I think we need to see how they develop.

Yeah, my post got prematurely posted while I was typing. This post is all about their ability to identify and acquire major league ready talent through their analytics. Minor league and amateur scouting will take years to determine how good they are at that.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

Yeah, my post got prematurely posted while I was typing. This post is all about their ability to identify and acquire major league ready talent through their analytics. Minor league and amateur scouting will take years to determine how good they are at that.

I think you have mentioned this before and to me, you just aren’t likely to hit on these guys.  Every once in a while, you get that Rodrigo Lopez but for the most part, these guys are not good players and are available for nothing for a reason.

 

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

What do you mean they were undervalued by "us?"

Means wen into the offseason and learned that changeup. He also increased his velocity by going to a performance place, not because of something the organization did for him. I know he's tangibly given some credit to Holt for the changeup, but I don't think the Orioles under Elias suddenly developed Means.

As for Mullins, he was always a prospect. it wasn't until he finally decided on his own to give up switch hitting did he become an everyday guy. When the organization tried to makes some changes with him two years ago you saw how awful he was.

Elias felt so good about him he sent him all the way to AA in 2019.

Over his last 109 PAs, Mullins is slashing .242/.330/.400/.730. Not terrible, but let's not start calling him a success story of the regime.

When Means came up, I'm pretty sure everyone thought he was a JAG.  

Means didn't make the OH top 30 prospect list in 2017:  http://www.orioleshangout.com/2017/11/12/2017-orioles-top-30-prospects/

He was 28th in 2018:  http://www.orioleshangout.com/2018/11/06/2018-top-30-prospects/

For some reason I can't find the 2019 rankings but MLB.com didn't have him in the top 30 list for 2019:  http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=bal

So yeah, I'd say Means was undervalued.  But if we're going to say that Means went outside of the organization to become better, that's fine, I'm not going to argue.  

Fair enough on Mullins, too. 

[DrungoHazewood]

Is there such thing as an undervalued guy when you can get spin rates and launch angles for guys in the Midwest League (or whatever they're calling the Midwest League this year)?  It's tremendously harder to find your Benny Ayalas in this era where everyone knows everything about everyone.  In 1978 Earl knew Ayala could hit lefties but the Mets probably didn't, so they went out and got him.

[Moose Milligan]

11 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Is there such thing as an undervalued guy when you can get spin rates and launch angles for guys in the Midwest League (or whatever they're calling the Midwest League this year)?  It's tremendously harder to find your Benny Ayalas in this era where everyone knows everything about everyone.  In 1978 Earl knew Ayala could hit lefties but the Mets probably didn't, so they went out and got him.

The Cardinals traded Ayala to us for a guy named Mike Dimmel.  

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

The Cardinals traded Ayala to us for a guy named Mike Dimmel.  

I wonder what info Earl had on Ayala.  Dimmel was a dud, .663 OPS in AAA.  But Ayala was 27 and also stuck in AAA and his overall numbers weren't impressive.  I want to know if he somehow got some splits, or scouting reports, or just got lucky.

[Aristotelian]

Since the players listed did not cost us anything, I wouldn't exactly call them failures. More like not-successes. 

I never got the sense that poaching players from other organizations would be core to the rebuild. Of course they talked up analytics but Elias is too smart to let everything ride on being able to outsmart other teams. They have also talked about international and of course developing their own players through the draft.

I would consider Sulser, Lakins, and Alberto to be small wins which is about all I would expect.

[bpilktree]

Lopez would fit that bill as undervalued and although his numbers don’t look great if we had other guys doing their job he could be a heck of a late inning guy IMO. 
 

[Moshagge3]

41 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Is there such thing as an undervalued guy when you can get spin rates and launch angles for guys in the Midwest League (or whatever they're calling the Midwest League this year)?  It's tremendously harder to find your Benny Ayalas in this era where everyone knows everything about everyone.  In 1978 Earl knew Ayala could hit lefties but the Mets probably didn't, so they went out and got him.

The Yankees somehow found Gio Urshela and Luke Voit and turned them into stars. Then again, I think they probably have a Houstonesque sign-stealing operation we don't fully know about yet. 

[SteveA]

16 minutes ago, Moshagge3 said:

The Yankees somehow found Gio Urshela and Luke Voit and turned them into stars. Then again, I think they probably have a Houstonesque sign-stealing operation we don't fully know about yet. 

Those two among many.   Didi's offense took a big step up when they got him.  Aaron HIcks' batting average went up 50 or so points.  

[Legend_Of_Joey]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

When Elias took over, we were told Sig's analytics would be able to identify players in other organizations that would be undervalued and acquired. Apparently, the rest of the league are doing the same things so it's no longer an advantage and the guys they have found have generally failed.

If you want to know why the team has completely stunk while trying to rebuild, it's been the absolute failure of Elias/Sig to acquire players that can help at the major league level through undervalued players. While we still don't know about the talent received in trades or the drafting ability of Sig/Elias, what we do know is they get an F at acquiring major league ready talent that is under utilized by other organizations.

Rio Ruiz: Fail
Wojo: Fail
Severino; Backup catcher at best on a good team
Valiaka: Utility guy at best
Andrew Velazquez: fail
Martin: .581 OPS, now an injury prone AAA guy.
Eshelmen: Long guy/AAA guy
Fulmer: Gave him quick look, gave up on him, quickly picked up and now pitching in Red bullpen with a 4.19 FIP
Urias: Fail
Alberto: back up guy or lower division starter
Armstrong: Middle relief at best
Plutko: long guy innings eater used poorly by coaching staff
Lakins: Middle reliever
Sulser: middle reliever
Valdez: Did they find him because of analytics or got lucky, not sure?
Broxton: fail
Aaron Brooks: Fail

 

Fry was a cast off from Seattle, gotten for only some International Money.