The Curious Case Of: Chance Sisco

[Philip]

37 minutes ago, CHIP said:

 

So, again, I am very interested in your logic?  Because if my wife hasn't reminded me enough... just because I have a strong opinion it doesn't mean that I am right.

The best way to be right according to your wife, is to agree with her.

Believe me, I know this…

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, CHIP said:

I am and have been a PRO Maverick fan since and during his time at Stanford.  With all the rain in New York, I was able to watch a lot of archived games of Bowie and Aberdeen.  I have also been able to watch a lot of Adley during his games at OSU.  I think Adley is a VERY good catcher while I think Maverick is a great catcher  So, when you look at overall impact of the player on the team based on the play at the position, I am very intrigued by your logic for Rutschman being ahead of Maverick defensively?  Again, this is a defensive question not an offensive question.

Comparing stats: 

In 2019, Adley caught 7 of 11 runners trying to steal.  63%.  He only caught 17 games or 142 innings.  He also had 4 errors.  Maverick in 2019 caught 19 of 30 runners trying to steal.  63%.  He caught 29 games for 249 innings.  He only had 2 errors. 

In 2021, Adley has caught 14 games/122 innings.  Caught 2 of 10 runners (20%) and has 1 error.  Maverick in 2021 has caught 13 games/108 innings. Caught 7 of 13 runners (54%) and also picked off 4 more runners.  No Errors.

Video/Body Language: 

In looking at the video this weekend of Adley catching and Maverick catching, it looks to be like Maverick 'steals' more strikes and calls for a lot of balls to be thrown into the dirt by his pitchers with 2 strikes.  He also seemed quicker behind the plate.  I was trying to find plays that Adley made that aren't expected to be made by your catcher.  I didn't see any.  Maverick has videos of him with defensive gems going back years both with Orioles and Cardinal.  Again, this is a defense discussion as there are offensively highlights galore of Adley.

I really feel like Adley gives the Orioles a Joe Mauer type player who will move to 1B to keep his bat high.  Maverick gives the Pudge/Molina type catcher who keeps the opposing teams Runs down but isn't a guaranteed out behind the dish.

So, again, I am very interested in your logic?  Because if my wife hasn't reminded me enough... just because I have a strong opinion it doesn't mean that I am right.

Well, I'll be honest and say I've seen more video of Rutschman catching than Maverick and I wasn't necessarily scouting them for their defense at the time. Rutschman comes with the scouting reports of being an outstanding defensive catcher and from what I've seen, his framing, and leadership with pitchers looks top notch. His throwing has not been great this year overall, but I don't see that being a problem. 

I like Maverick defensively but his game calling needs work. Maybe he's told ahead of time what to call or what to work on with his pitchers, but there have been several times I can recall watching games and being frustrated by his insistence to keep using the same pitch in the same glove location too often. Again, without know what they've told him to do, this has stood out to me.

I do think Handley does a good job of presenting strikes and seems to have a good relationship with his pitchers. He also throws very well, probably a hair better than Rutschman. 

Maybe they are 1A and 1B vs 1 vs 2, but they both are above average defensive catchers from what I've seen.

[DrungoHazewood]

On 5/28/2021 at 10:01 PM, BohKnowsBmore said:

Not sure I can agree with this. Given his relatively high draft status, minor league success, and prospect ranking, he would have made the majors on any of the 30 teams. This is not a case of a bad team elevating a non-prospect due to a need combined with a dearth of other options. He hasn’t turned into what we hoped, but he was certainly more than an org filler. 

There were three catchers taken in the second round of the 2013 draft.  Victor Caratini, Andrew Knapp, Chance Sisco.  Caratini had a .799 minor league OPS, a .692 MLB OPS, and had played 285 MLB games.  Knapp had a .769 minor league OPS, a .656 MLB OPS, and has played 280 MLB games.  Chance Sisco had the highest minor league OPS despite playing a lot of games in Harbor Park (.816), had a .658 MLB OPS, and has played the fewest MLB games (191).

Sisco got the opportunities he got because that's what prospects like him get from MLB organizations. Not because the Orioles are dumb or suck or whatever.

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, CHIP said:

I am and have been a PRO Maverick fan since and during his time at Stanford.  With all the rain in New York, I was able to watch a lot of archived games of Bowie and Aberdeen.  I have also been able to watch a lot of Adley during his games at OSU.  I think Adley is a VERY good catcher while I think Maverick is a great catcher  So, when you look at overall impact of the player on the team based on the play at the position, I am very intrigued by your logic for Rutschman being ahead of Maverick defensively?  Again, this is a defensive question not an offensive question.

Comparing stats: 

In 2019, Adley caught 7 of 11 runners trying to steal.  63%.  He only caught 17 games or 142 innings.  He also had 4 errors.  Maverick in 2019 caught 19 of 30 runners trying to steal.  63%.  He caught 29 games for 249 innings.  He only had 2 errors. 

In 2021, Adley has caught 14 games/122 innings.  Caught 2 of 10 runners (20%) and has 1 error.  Maverick in 2021 has caught 13 games/108 innings. Caught 7 of 13 runners (54%) and also picked off 4 more runners.  No Errors.

Video/Body Language: 

In looking at the video this weekend of Adley catching and Maverick catching, it looks to be like Maverick 'steals' more strikes and calls for a lot of balls to be thrown into the dirt by his pitchers with 2 strikes.  He also seemed quicker behind the plate.  I was trying to find plays that Adley made that aren't expected to be made by your catcher.  I didn't see any.  Maverick has videos of him with defensive gems going back years both with Orioles and Cardinal.  Again, this is a defense discussion as there are offensively highlights galore of Adley.

I really feel like Adley gives the Orioles a Joe Mauer type player who will move to 1B to keep his bat high.  Maverick gives the Pudge/Molina type catcher who keeps the opposing teams Runs down but isn't a guaranteed out behind the dish.

So, again, I am very interested in your logic?  Because if my wife hasn't reminded me enough... just because I have a strong opinion it doesn't mean that I am right.

 Nice info.   I do note that runners seem a bit more willing to test Maverick than Handley, based on attempts per innings caught.    But you do make a good case.   Obviously the game is a bit different in AA than in A+, so that has to be considered.  

[Matt Bennett]

In 2013, the O’s took 4 catchers in the first 10 rounds. Perhaps hoping one of them would take the reigns from Matt Wieters

Chance Sisco (2nd), Jonah Heim (4th), Alex Murphy (6th), Austin Wynns (10th). Only Murphy didn’t crack the big leagues as he was moved off of catcher, released, and is now in Independent ball. None of the 3 major leaguers have done much, just hovering around replacement level in their limited time. Perhaps Heim, who’s been traded a few times, has the best chance to succeed although Wynns should get a good bit of playing time if he can hit the ball a lick. 

[CHIP]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

 Nice info.   I do note that runners seem a bit more willing to test Maverick than Handley, based on attempts per innings caught.    But you do make a good case.   Obviously the game is a bit different in AA than in A+, so that has to be considered.  

I considered the attempts per innings caught.  There are several factors for certain that go into attempts.  The obvious one this year is the pick off rule in A+ which is not the same in AA.  In addition is LHP vs RHP.  There are a lot more LHP starters in Bowie the Aberdeen.  So less attempts.  The team mentality on running.  Hudson Valley and Wilmington are right up there with Aberdeen in attempts/stolen bases this year.  In AA, Bowie has not played a lot of close games where the reward for a stolen base is worth the risk.  The other one that I started to correlate is how often Maverick calls for the balls in the dirt.  On the ones he blocks and the runner goes, when he throws down, if the runner is safe it is a stolen base because he made the attempt.  If he didn't throw, it would be a wild pitch.  Adley doesn't call for as many balls in the dirt.  Which may be because of the pitchers preference... but this year thru end of May (so not counting yesterday), Bowie had 17 Wild Pitches while Aberdeen only had 9.  It is only a wild pitch when the runner advances.   The real data won't show until they are catching the same pitchers in the same league.  

[CHIP]

19 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Well, I'll be honest and say I've seen more video of Rutschman catching than Maverick and I wasn't necessarily scouting them for their defense at the time. Rutschman comes with the scouting reports of being an outstanding defensive catcher and from what I've seen, his framing, and leadership with pitchers looks top notch. His throwing has not been great this year overall, but I don't see that being a problem. 

I like Maverick defensively but his game calling needs work. Maybe he's told ahead of time what to call or what to work on with his pitchers, but there have been several times I can recall watching games and being frustrated by his insistence to keep using the same pitch in the same glove location too often. Again, without know what they've told him to do, this has stood out to me.

I do think Handley does a good job of presenting strikes and seems to have a good relationship with his pitchers. He also throws very well, probably a hair better than Rutschman. 

Maybe they are 1A and 1B vs 1 vs 2, but they both are above average defensive catchers from what I've seen.

Agreed, both are above average defensive catchers and spending $8,000,000+ vs $250,000 there is a lot more on the line for Adley to succeed to satisfy the fan base and so most people aren't looking for weaknesses or someone that may be better as it clouds the excitement.  It is going to be very interesting to see how the Orioles try to hand on to Maverick if he can continue his improvements offensively.  Like I said... I have been watching both of these guys because of the Pac-12 and ultimately if they both succeed the Orioles are going to benefit from that more than anyone that doesn't see it coming will expect.

'Normal' people don't watch catchers for their defense unless they are specifically looking at them for that.  Even then you have to look at the who is pitching, hitting, situation, etc.  It is hard.  New pitchers, new batters, etc in the minors with less data on them for the 'catching cards'.  I am absolutely not a normal person.  I also know there is an art to calling games.  That is why most college coaches don't allow players to call the games.  I remember reading an article/story on Maverick.  https://gostanford.com/feature/MavMoments  from that story, this is the part that may explain some of what leads to your frustration, "They talk after every inning. Eager tries to educate Handley on why calls were made or find out more about what Handley called. A lesson Handley is learning is that pitches aren’t simply meant to get a batter out. They sometimes have a greater purpose. For instance, Eager may call a pitch that he knows will be hit safely, usually early in a game, to set up a pitch at a more impactful moment later." 

Because of the 2018 CWS run and the drama of that championship series, Adley got a lot of attention which was well deserved.  You have to look for scouting reports on Maverick... D1 makes you pay for them. but some on BA don't have fees.  Baseball America did before the 2019 super regional.  https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-ncaa-super-regional-preview-starkville/  Really interesting how this coach specifically called out the difference between Adley and Maverick...

Scouting Report (anonymous coach breaks down the Cardinal)

“Just the physicality, the way those guys swing the bat, Kyle Stowers, Brandon Wulff, Andrew Dashbach. Maverick Handley for me gets a bad rap about not being totally offensive. That guy’s dangerous and he knows what he’s doing. I’d like to see guys catch as many innings as he does and hang in there. It takes a special guy like Adley Rutschman to hit like he does. But Maverick is catching every game and has caught every game for two years. 

“They’re going to make you earn it, you’re not going to get a lot of gifts there. The other part where the field shrinks is Maverick. He blocks and retrieves as well as anybody else in the country. His athleticism with his body structure is off the charts. The way he manages that staff, he shrinks bases because you’re not getting a lot of free bases with passed balls or wild pitches because he’s doing a great job of limiting those opportunities. And when you’ve got to get three this to score a run against that staff and that defense, that’s a tall task.

 

 

[Redskins Rick]

I do not believe Chance was drafted with the plan to keep him at the catcher position. I remember they had faith in his bat, and that they would move him out of catcher to take advantage of his stick.
 

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I do not believe Chance was drafted with the plan to keep him at the catcher position. I remember they had faith in his bat, and that they would move him out of catcher to take advantage of his stick.
 

The plan was always to make and keep him a catcher. They felt if they could make him a passable defensive catcher his bat would play well at the position. Unfortunately, the bat did not really play consistently above AA where his lack of bat speed became an issue. Once he decided to change his approach and try to hit for power, he lost his hit skill. Of course, once the scouting reports got around that you could beat him with good fastballs, he was pretty done either way.

It always reminds me of a former Orioles scout who told me back when he was in A-ball that he thought he was Steve Clevenger, not enough power or hit tool to overcome a well below average defensive game. 

Clevenger slashed .227/.284/.324/.608 in 522 PAs
Sisco has slashed  .199/.319/.339/.658 in 598 PAs

They both were well below average defensive catchers. 

In the end, looks like that scout was right. 

[Redskins Rick]

20 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The plan was always to make and keep him a catcher. They felt if they could make him a passable defensive catcher his bat would play well at the position. Unfortunately, the bat did not really play consistently above AA where his lack of bat speed became an issue. Once he decided to change his approach and try to hit for power, he lost his hit skill. Of course, once the scouting reports got around that you could beat him with good fastballs, he was pretty done either way.

It always reminds me of a former Orioles scout who told me back when he was in A-ball that he thought he was Steve Clevenger, not enough power or hit tool to overcome a well below average defensive game. 

Clevenger slashed .227/.284/.324/.608 in 522 PAs
Sisco has slashed  .199/.319/.339/.658 in 598 PAs

They both were well below average defensive catchers. 

In the end, looks like that scout was right. 

Thanks and I stand corrected.

I do remember Clevenger sucking at catching, until he was demoted and knew if he wanted to catch for Buck, he had to make serious improvements. Which I did remember, he coming back up and he wasn't plus by any means, but he didnt suck anymore.