Cedric Mullins as a CF

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

So tired of fans that want to trade every good players the O's have.  I guess I want to cheer for a winning team, not a last place team that trades any good player.  Some fans on the hangout want to have an endless rebuild.  I feel like the O's with the talent that they have in the minors plus the talent in the majors can start trying to win next year.  Its time to stop trading core players. 

I agree.

[Jagwar]

38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Was he a build around player prior to this season?

Did you think he was a build around player just last month when he slashed 255/336/306/732?

Would you build around a 26 y/o 730 OPS CFer with no prior ML history of being good?

 

The answer to your questions are no. The answer to the question "Is he a build around player now" is TBD. 

Maybe the correct question is "Will some team overpay for him at the trade deadline based on this season ala Gerardo Parra?"

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Was he a build around player prior to this season?

Did you think he was a build around player just last month when he slashed 255/336/306/732?

Would you build around a 26 y/o 730 OPS CFer with no prior ML history of being good?

 

I think it's a bit of hyperbole to say that nothing he's done in the first 2 or so months matters at all, considering it's over 1/3 of his major league stats to date.  They absolutely should change the narrative.  Should we expect him to continue performing well enough to be top 10 in batter WAR and wOBA?  probably not.  But his xwOBA is currently .344, which while lower than his actual wOBA, still indicates that at least some of his current production is real based on his exit velocity and launch angle profile.  It's also worth noting that fast players tend to beat out xwOBA because it doesn't capture value added by legging out infield hits, stretching singles to doubles, etc.  EV and launch angle starts stabilizing (r > 0.5) around 80 balls in play per this article:   https://theathletic.com/1014491/2019/06/07/sarris-understanding-exit-velocity-and-sample-sizes/

 

[Sports Guy]

36 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

The answer to your questions are no. The answer to the question "Is he a build around player now" is TBD. 

Maybe the correct question is "Will some team overpay for him at the trade deadline based on this season ala Gerardo Parra?"

Well I basically said it’s TBD.  But the oh so wise (I almost said that without laughing) Explosive diarrhea(or whatever his name is) said he already is a build around player.  Apparently a month plus one great series is all it takes??

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Hallas said:

I think it's a bit of hyperbole to say that nothing he's done in the first 2 or so months matters at all, considering it's over 1/3 of his major league stats to date.  They absolutely should change the narrative.  Should we expect him to continue performing well enough to be top 10 in batter WAR and wOBA?  probably not.  But his xwOBA is currently .344, which while lower than his actual wOBA, still indicates that at least some of his current production is real based on his exit velocity and launch angle profile.  It's also worth noting that fast players tend to beat out xwOBA because it doesn't capture value added by legging out infield hits, stretching singles to doubles, etc.  EV and launch angle starts stabilizing (r > 0.5) around 80 balls in play per this article:   https://theathletic.com/1014491/2019/06/07/sarris-understanding-exit-velocity-and-sample-sizes/

 

Did I say it’s worth nothing

All I said he is that he has not proven yet that he is a player that you build a team around. 
 

Do you really think he has proven that?

[glenn__davis]

When he is on one of his patented hot streaks I'm not sure there is a more entertaining player to watch.  Just sprays the ball all over the field.

[Hallas]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Did I say it’s worth nothing

All I said he is that he has not proven yet that he is a player that you build a team around. 
 

Do you really think he has proven that?

 

12 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Mullins hasn’t done anything to say he is a build around player yet but the changes he has made to his swing are paying off bug time.  We will see if he can keep this up but I would be surprised to see the Os deal him in July.

"hasn't done anything" == "done nothing" to me anyway.

 

Maybe you meant "hasn't done enough" but I'm going by what you wrote.

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Hallas said:

 

"hasn't done anything" == "done nothing" to me anyway.

 

Maybe you meant "hasn't done enough" but I'm going by what you wrote.

No, I meant what i said.  A really good April and a great series vs Cle is “hasn’t done anything to prove he is a BUILD YOUR TEAM AROUND player”

I made the comment that his swing adjustments have paid off big for him.  Obviously that means I’m saying he is improved.  But being improved doesn’t mean you want to build a team around him.

 

[GuidoSarducci]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Did I say it’s worth nothing

All I said he is that he has not proven yet that he is a player that you build a team around. 
 

Do you really think he has proven that?

WTF does "build around" mean for a baseball player?  This isn't like basketball or ice hockey where teammates have to gell on the court/ice in order to be productive.  Mullins would be starting CF on all but 4=5 MLB teams, given his current production level.   I don't know if he'll maintain that pace, but thats someone I would want on my team.   Even at average production for CF level he'd still useful, because you can't have a superstar at every position.   Keeping him would not be interfering with us improving the team in other ways. 

 

[Frobby]

I’m with SG here - too early to say Mullins is a guy you could build your team around.   He’s building his case, though.   Nobody is ever untradeable in my view, but I’d certainly need an awfully good return in order to do it.  

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Was he a build around player prior to this season?

Did you think he was a build around player just last month when he slashed 255/336/306/732?

Would you build around a 26 y/o 730 OPS CFer with no prior ML history of being good?

 

Would I say right now that he is a "build around" player based on what we've seen this year, yes. Based on everything we know of his past, I'm more inclined to see it through a season or two, but I'm not trading him yet unless I was blown away by the package (There is no one on this team I would not move for the right package).

We are really in uncharted territory here because we've never seen a guy ditch switch hitting then tear it up like Mullins is doing. Mullins is entering his prime next year, so there is a chance he's a guy that we can build around since right now he's very good at four tools out of five and he's become a guy who knows how to hit his cut off man quickly to offset a below average arm.

I'm not ready to to anoint him the guy we build around yet, but I'm going to dismiss it either. I never thought Mullins would be more than a 4th outfielder platoon guy because of his inability to hit right=handed effectively, and since we've never actually seen someone ditch one side as a switch hitter and become very effective hitting the same hand pitching as the side he uses, who know he could become what we've seen this year?

What we have seen is that Mullins at 26-years old is currently playing like one of the best players in baseball. We can only hope he continues to sustain it, but even if there is some regression, he has a long way to fall before he isn't an above average center fielder at the major league level.

[Hallas]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, I meant what i said.  A really good April and a great series vs Cle is “hasn’t done anything to prove he is a BUILD YOUR TEAM AROUND player”

I made the comment that his swing adjustments have paid off big for him.  Obviously that means I’m saying he is improved.  But being improved doesn’t mean you want to build a team around him.

 

This is a bit of semantics, but I think that the above matches the description of "haven't done enough" unless you feel that he is incapable of ever being a build-team-around player. (I think that is a semi reasonable argument given his age and lack of past success, even if it's one that I disagree with.)  I think that if you feel that he's on his way to proving it, then he couldn't have "done nothing."

[interloper]

A few more bombs and he's starting to look less like pre-concussion Brian Roberts and more like Mookie Betts without the arm. What we're seeing is nothing short of incredible. His ABs look so professional compared to much of the rest of the lineup. Everything is so under control, like watching an All-Star player that has been doing this for years. It's really remarkable. Like most everyone else, I had him pegged for 4th outfielder. It's like he just up and decided, screw this, I'm going to be great. 

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, Hallas said:

This is a bit of semantics, but I think that the above matches the description of "haven't done enough" unless you feel that he is incapable of ever being a build-team-around player. (I think that is a semi reasonable argument given his age and lack of past success, even if it's one that I disagree with.)  I think that if you feel that he's on his way to proving it, then he couldn't have "done nothing."

There is a difference between that he has shown to be a good to very good everyday player or a build your team around guy.

A guy you build your team around (I agree with the above post that this isn’t like other sports where you do build around someone but hey, this is the comment that was made and started this discussion, so I’m going with that) is a multi time AS, MVP level guy.  Not a guy who has had a few good weeks after practically being nothing in his career.

Like I said, he had a 730ish OPS in May.  No one is building around a player like that.  If he was coming off just a good series vs Cle, we wouldn’t be having this discussion.  But since he is coming off of one of the better 3 game stretches in franchise history, the comment was made.  
 

This comment/discussion isn’t being had 4 days ago and yet somehow I’m crazy for saying we need to see more?  That’s not logical. 
 

So yes, he hasn’t done anything for me to say you build around him because there hasn’t been nearly enough sample size to put him on that level of a player.  

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, interloper said:

A few more bombs and he's starting to look less like pre-concussion Brian Roberts and more like Mookie Betts without the arm. What we're seeing is nothing short of incredible. His ABs look so professional compared to much of the rest of the lineup. Everything is so under control, like watching an All-Star player that has been doing this for years. It's really remarkable. Like most everyone else, I had him pegged for 4th outfielder. It's like he just up and decided, screw this, I'm going to be great. 

His swing changes have meant a lot.  Gotta give him and the coaching staff credit for that.