Halfway through at rebuilding season

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

COVID.

I know right?  Last year only the O's minor leagues were impacted by Covid and this season we are the only team with guys getting hurt.

I'm starting to think we're cursed.

[7Mo]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I know right?  Last year only the O's minor leagues were impacted by Covid and this season we are the only team with guys getting hurt.

I'm starting to think we're cursed.

Or it's a conspiracy perpetrated by the yankees and red sox. Likely why they're on the Sunday Night game every week.

[LTO's]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I know right?  Last year only the O's minor leagues were impacted by Covid and this season we are the only team with guys getting hurt.

I'm starting to think we're cursed.

I mean some teams definitely deal with more costly injuries than others that directly effect the results on the field. It’s a big reason why the Giants are hanging with the Dodgers and Padres right now.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, LTO's said:

I mean some teams definitely deal with more costly injuries than others that directly effect the results on the field. It’s a big reason why the Giants are hanging with the Dodgers and Padres right now.

I don't think you can look at the O's and come to the determination that they have been hit particularly hard with injuries compared to other teams.

Look at the Mets.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think you can look at the O's and come to the determination that they have been hit particularly hard with injuries compared to other teams.

Look at the Mets.

Well, what you aren’t factoring in is that the Os have zero Margin for error.

Means being out is probably more detrimental to them than most teams losing their best pitcher.  

[LTO's]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think you can look at the O's and come to the determination that they have been hit particularly hard with injuries compared to other teams.

Look at the Mets.

Means is probably one of the 5 best players on the IL right now. He was on pace for a 7+ WAR season. When you go from that to Thomas Eshelman and the DD AAAA pitchers it’s a pretty big drop off. They are still a very bad team with him and Hays but those are two of your best players. Galvis is down now too.

[Can_of_corn]

23 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Means is probably one of the 5 best players on the IL right now. He was on pace for a 7+ WAR season. When you go from that to Thomas Eshelman and the DD AAAA pitchers it’s a pretty big drop off. They are still a very bad team with him and Hays but those are two of your best players. Galvis is down now too.

But when you figure Davis is on the IL it changes things.  Means at 7 WAR plus Davis at -3 WAR means you are really down 4 WAR for Means. 

[Yossarian]

How I see the season playing out and those projections from the original post:

I think Mancini (eventually) finds his way out of this slump and his numbers project out about as you have them.  I think the BA will swing back up and he will end up in the .280 range.

Mullins will cool off.  He might end up in the .280 range for batting average, too.  I love what he is doing and the player he has made himself into.  He will steal more bases in the second half - he seems to have figured that out.

Santander's numbers will improve, but not greatly.  I don't think he will ever get his ankle to 100% this year.

Mountcastle's power numbers will be better in the second half than the first.  He will end up with 30 homers, or so (may be the most on the team).  I think he is becoming a much more patient hitter.  This is where a strong hitting Mancini or Santander hitting behind Mountcastle is important.

I think Franco will have a stronger second half than first half.  Higher average and better power numbers.

Everyone else will continue on with their peaks and valleys in performance - about the same as they are right now.  

Overall record:  62 - 100

[Aristotelian]

I would say Tanner Scott and Paul Fry have been solid, although not without hiccups. Same could be said of Mountcastle. Galvis was solid and possible trade chip until getting injured at the worst possible time. Unfortunately I am struggling to come up with any positives for SP after Means. 

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

I would say Tanner Scott and Paul Fry have been solid, although not without hiccups. Same could be said of Mountcastle. Galvis was solid and possible trade chip until getting injured at the worst possible time. Unfortunately I am struggling to come up with any positives for SP after Means. 

Regarding the starting pitching, at the very least we are learning about them. I wonder hiw many of the guys who are starting a game for us this season will start a game for us next season, aside from Zimmerman.Means Is a possible off-season trade piece, And next year we will have gray-rod and Hall and Zimm, and who…?

[7Mo]

15 minutes ago, Philip said:

Regarding the starting pitching, at the very least we are learning about them. I wonder hiw many of the guys who are starting a game for us this season will start a game for us next season, aside from Zimmerman.Means Is a possible off-season trade piece, And next year we will have gray-rod and Hall and Zimm, and who…?

At the start of the season, possibles should be Means, Zimmerman, FA, Kremer, Bradish, Tyler Wells, Akin, Lowther, Alex Wells.

Later in the season, it's more likely some combo of Means, FA, Rodriguez, Hall, Bradish, Tyler Wells, Kevin Smith and Zimmerman.

[Yossarian]

9 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

At the start of the season, possibles should be Means, Zimmerman, FA, Kremer, Bradish, Tyler Wells, Akin, Lowther, Alex Wells.

Later in the season, it's more likely some combo of Means, FA, Rodriguez, Hall, Bradish, Tyler Wells, Kevin Smith and Zimmerman.

You think they are ready to start spending free agent money on starting pitching?  I would hope so, but I'm not holding my breath.

[HowAboutThat]

18 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

At the start of the season, possibles should be Means, Zimmerman, FA, Kremer, Bradish, Tyler Wells, Akin, Lowther, Alex Wells.

Later in the season, it's more likely some combo of Means, FA, Rodriguez, Hall, Bradish, Tyler Wells, Kevin Smith and Zimmerman.

I think over the course of the rest of this season, if Zimmerman comes back and does as well as he was doing before he left, he’ll have a spot, I’m not sure about Kremer, Akin or Lowther. They I haven’t done as well as I hoped, although I certainly hope they let them start the rest of the season and let Lowther 10-12 starts.

I do think Means will be traded, And the only reason we’re not gonna trade him now is because of his injury.

[7Mo]

19 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

You think they are ready to start spending free agent money on starting pitching?  I would hope so, but I'm not holding my breath.

They brought in Matt Harvey and King Felix. I didn't mean big money. Hopefully they'll shop at a little higher price point this winter but it's got to be tough to entice a better pitcher to sign with the O's for 2022.

That FA pitcher knows that not only are you going to face the AL East, but you're not going to win and the defense will be sub-par until minor league promotions which are more likely 2023 for Henderson, Westburg, Ortiz, Hernaiz, and others.

So, yes, 1-2-3 FA signs between starters and the pen. Hopefully at a higher level than previous signs. But not signs that would be 1-2 or even a third starter type quality.

[7Mo]

22 minutes ago, Philip said:

I think over the course of the rest of this season, if Zimmerman comes back and does as well as he was doing before he left, he’ll have a spot, I’m not sure about Kremer, Akin or Lowther. They I haven’t done as well as I hoped, although I certainly hope they let them start the rest of the season and let Lowther 10-12 starts.

I do think Means will be traded, And the only reason we’re not gonna trade him now is because of his injury.

I think what Elias and the O's are doing is trying to develop anyone and everyone and increase their value. That's pretty simple logic.

Using Kremer as an example, I'd guess they hoped for more from him to date. But you don't punt on the guy. You keep trying to develop him and increase his value, whether that ends up being with the O's or as a trade chip. Some pitchers take a while. It's not "an O's thing". It's everywhere in baseball. 

So, I think all of those guys will get chances because it's the right thing to do for the organization. Develop anyone and everyone you can, whether they stay with the O's or become a chip in a trade.

I tend to think Means will be traded as well. But as with everyone, it depends on who and when someone offers enough. Someone will in time. Just like with Mancini and Mullins and others.