Maybe the Angels Drafted Pitchers for Us

[baltfan]

In 2019 the Angels drafted 17 pitchers in the first 20 rounds.  They traded 3 of them, Stallings - 5, Peek - 6, and Brnovich -7, to us.  In the 2021 draft, they took all pitchers.  Maybe history will repeat itself.

[jamalshw]

While funny, I think there's some element of truth in this humor. Not necessarily we are going to trade with the Angels for more pitcher draft picks, but it's interesting to pair our apparent philosophy in the draft: hitters first, with our returns in some trades. 

It seems Elias and company are a bit gun shy on spending a high pick on a pitcher, maybe it's Aiken and Appel influence or just the statistics pointing to them being riskier. What I find interesting is how they seem to over compensate for lack of early pitchers with a lot of pitchers in deals and late in the draft. I think Elias and company think they have some sort of magic sauce that helps them identify undervalued pitching prospects/draftees that they think they can elevate to a higher level. Whether they are right with that or not is yet to be seen, but Bradish and Smith have looked good. Brnovich has shown some flashes. 

Overall, I'm still trying to get my head around the whole philosophy. 

[LookinUp]

25 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

It seems Elias and company are a bit gun shy on spending a high pick on a pitcher, maybe it's Aiken and Appel influence or just the statistics pointing to them being riskier... I think Elias and company think they have some sort of magic sauce ...

I think they're dealing with statistics, not people. I don't mean that negatively. I just think they're using probabilities to maximize future net returns. They'll figure out any misallocation of talent as they go.

For example. People love the shiny high school object with massive upside, but I'd bet Elias' data says that if you take 100 Cowsers and 100 Lawlers, you'll end up with more WAR from the 100 Cowsers than the 100 Lawlers. Or maybe the probabilities of ending up with 10+ WAR (e.g., getting more people to have success versus total overall WAR).

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think they're dealing with statistics, not people. I don't mean that negatively. I just think they're using probabilities to maximize future net returns. They'll figure out any misallocation of talent as they go.

For example. People love the shiny high school object with massive upside, but I'd bet Elias' data says that if you take 100 Cowsers and 100 Lawlers, you'll end up with more WAR from the 100 Cowsers than the 100 Lawlers. Or maybe the probabilities of ending up with 10+ WAR (e.g., getting more people to have success versus total overall WAR).

I believe this as well. It's not that I don't think they don't have some eyes on guys, but I think they are very connected to their analytcis that determines the best probability to gain WAR at the major league level.

[now]

54 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think they're dealing with statistics, not people. I don't mean that negatively. I just think they're using probabilities to maximize future net returns. They'll figure out any misallocation of talent as they go.

For example. People love the shiny high school object with massive upside, but I'd bet Elias' data says that if you take 100 Cowsers and 100 Lawlers, you'll end up with more WAR from the 100 Cowsers than the 100 Lawlers. Or maybe the probabilities of ending up with 10+ WAR (e.g., getting more people to have success versus total overall WAR).

This. It dovetails with some of the other insights on this board about risks and future reward. The approach seems to follow three hypotheses or observations of existing data:

1. Batters are more likely to stay healthy. And of these, athletic tools and contact skills play up.

2. College performers are more likely to have MLB success.

3. Quantity trumps quality (see Rays and the Morton decision), partly because again the health risk is spread out (not all value in a few golden eggs).

[baltfan]

Thinking about the number of pitchers that were traded and became successful on another team, that doesn't seem like the worst strategy.

In this year's All-Star game alone the following were all acquired via trade or release:

Cole

Eovaldi

Gibson

Lynn

Hendriks

Chapman

Pressly

Gausman

Wheeler

Walker

Hader

Melancon

 

Chapman, Lynn? and maybe Melancon were the only ones of the pitchers above that had been all-stars prior to being traded.  

 

 

 

[OriolesMagic83]

Maybe Elias is just stockpiling extra position prospect to trade with the Angels and Dodgers (?).  I know the Dodgers chose pitchers 19 of 20 picks last year.  I don't know that any major league team has had the strategy that Elias/O's seem to have.  I would have to guess Elias is looking to trade for AA to pre arbitration ML pitchers the next 2-3 years.  I just can't see the O's paying free agent rates for starting pitchers.  As much as the Nats are hindered by Corbin/Strasburg contracts, those contract would practically cripple the O's.  Will be interesting to see if Elias can make this strategy work.

[sylvester]

Elias has turned around one of the worst minor league systems over the past 20 years into a top system.   Maybe they view pitcher and TJ surgery as too high risk.   They even avoided pitching in the International signing period.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, sylvester said:

Elias has turned around one of the worst minor league systems over the past 20 years into a top system.   Maybe they view pitcher and TJ surgery as too high risk.   They even avoided pitching in the International signing period.  

Yep, and he did it with a big old bunch of really high draft picks and two stud pitchers picked, as High School students, by the prior regime.

Take Grayson and Hall out of the system and how does it look?

[RZNJ]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yep, and he did it with a big old bunch of really high draft picks and two stud pitchers picked, as High School students, by the prior regime.

Take Grayson and Hall out of the system and how does it look?

Pretty good, actually.  

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Pretty good, actually.  

Sure, pretty good, as you would expect given the draft picks he's had to work with.

But not top echelon.

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, pretty good, as you would expect given the draft picks he's had to work with.

But not top echelon.

Ok. Sure.   Without an existing international presence until recently.  Basallo was in his second signing class.  Shows that it takes awhile.

[LookinUp]

Also noted what San Diego has done, which is draft pitching high. They're a major target team for a trade for pitching this July, FWIW.

[emmett16]

47 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yep, and he did it with a big old bunch of really high draft picks and two stud pitchers picked, as High School students, by the prior regime.

Take Grayson and Hall out of the system and how does it look?

Fantastic?

[emmett16]

Grayson getting injured this year and Hall last year seems to validate the approach as well.