What constitutes a good draft? My study of 1998-2005

[Frobby]

Over in the Draft forum, 7Mo asked a few weeks ago what was the median value of a team draft.   I took a guess that it was in the 20-25 rWAR range, but the topic has been eating at me, so I decided to take a close look.

For my study, I used 1998 - 2005.  I used 1998 because that was the first year that the major leagues had 30 teams, and I stopped at 2005 because I figured as I got further beyond that, more and more players would still be active and accruing more WAR.   And so, I looked at every draft of every team for those 8 years, a total of 240 team drafts.   In summary, here is what I found.

1.  The mean average team draft produced 23.2 rWAR.   However, the median team draft produced only 14.5 rWAR.   That's because the good drafts can go way beyond 30 WAR but the bad ones can't really get much below 0 WAR.   

2.  The mean average total value over the 8 year period was 185.3 rWAR, whereas the median was 183.3.   Those two measures line up over a larger sample size.

3.  The frequency of various WAR ranges for a draft looks like this:

< 0: 10.8% (26/240)

0 - 4.9: 16.7 % (40/240)

5 - 9.9: 11.7% (28/240)

10 - 14.9: 11.3% (27/240)

15 - 19.9: 5.8% (14/240)

20 - 24.9: 6.7% (16/240)

25 - 29.9: 4.6% (11/240)

30 - 39.9: 8.8% (21/240)

40 - 49.9 10.0% (24/240)

50+: 13.8% (33/240)

So, bottom line, if your team wants to produce an above average pipeline, you'd better not have too many drafts that produce below 14.5 rWAR, you'll need to average better than 23.2 rWAR per draft, and you'll need to spring a 50+ rWAR draft once every 7-8 years or better.   

Here are a few qualifiers:

1.   This was a study of 1998-2005.   The draft rules have changed a number of times since then and that may have affected how rWAR is distributed.   However, I tend to doubt it has had significant affect.   

2.  Needless to say, draft order affects how well a team drafts, on average.

3.  The numbers I used were career WAR for players a team drafted and signed.   I did not factor in how much of that WAR was earned while the player was with the drafting team (which would have been incredibly time consuming to do), or while the player theoretically was under team control (ditto).   I didn't give teams credit for players they drafted but didn't sign.   I didn't factor in whether a team had lost or gained picks under the various rules about FA compensation, etc.   I can say that there were many good players drafted and signed who earned most or all of their WAR with teams other than the one that signed them.   

4.  Not all drafts are equal.   The best drafts I looked at (1998 and 2001) produced about 50% more total WAR than the worst ones (2000 and 2002).   So obviously, what constitutes a good draft for a team can vary according to the talent level available in that draft.

Anyway, I hope folks will find this a useful yardstick when we evaluate Orioles drafts past and future.   Of course, it takes a long time for all the results of a draft to come in.   

In my next post I will post a spreadsheet of all the team results over the 8 year period.   It goes without saying that it's not pretty for the Orioles during that time period.

[Frobby]

[CODE] 

TEAM	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	TOTAL
Angels	-0.7	41.7	33.5	9.6	45.4	5.5	52.1	5.7	187.1
Astros	29	4.6	4.8	1.5	-0.1	-0.1	78.3	1.4	118
Athletics	35.8	42.4	16.9	18.1	41.8	20.6	41.3	15.8	216.9
Blue Jays	14.1	44.6	1.9	6.5	2.1	42.2	23	10	134.4
Braves	10.1	4.5	74.8	-1.9	50.5	13.8	-0.9	39.2	190.1
Brewers	9.4	23.3	14.6	26	32.1	17.7	60.4	80.3	263.8
Cardinals	66.8	133.5	41.8	33.3	3.3	29	-2.2	29.2	334.7
Cubs	20.6	-1.9	16	49.1	21.4	9	9.4	-0.1	123.5
Devil Rays	29.8	70.6	41.9	1.6	32.1	13	23	11.6	223.6
Diamondbacks	12.5	23.6	31	33.4	5.4	13	22.3	38.5	179.7
Dodgers	9.2	32.4	1.5	8.6	63.5	47.4	10.7	0.3	173.6
Giants	2.5	2.5	-0.3	9.8	41.2	14	-0.1	9.8	79.4
Indians	64.9	1.9	14.5	12.5	20.7	13.7	7.2	1.7	137.1
Mariners	14.2	14.1	-0.1	2.2	0.3	34.7	4.9	0.3	70.6
Marlins	-0.1	39.9	62.4	0.2	29.3	-1.3	19.5	5.5	155.4
Mets	5.3	14.5	-1.4	49.7	27.2	5.3	4.3	9.6	114.5
Nats/Expos	11.5	26.2	96.2	-0.4	0.4	6.5	17.4	74.3	232.1
Orioles	-0.1	52.9	-0.4	12.4	-0.5	33.1	3.1	4.6	105.1
Padres	12.6	37	3.3	22	10.8	3.9	13.1	46.7	149.4
Phillies	53.7	40.4	66.6	30.4	57.6	40.5	21.5	-1.4	309.3
Pirates	10.2	8.7	69.5	29	10.9	17.4	18.8	55.1	219.6
Rangers	25.2	47.4	42.1	68.1	4.3	83.7	-0.8	1.6	271.6
Red Sox	16.1	8	19.3	40.7	47.8	36.1	54.3	64.8	287.1
Reds	46	4.7	-0.6	0	73.8	2.9	5.4	32.1	164.3
Rockies	68.7	15.8	22.4	2.5	11.5	5.7	45	45.6	217.2
Royals	0.9	39.9	22.1	-1.5	71.3	6.6	19.2	34.5	193
Tigers	41.6	21.9	3.2	9.1	52.9	-2.3	71.8	36	234.2
Twins	2.9	26.7	1.8	58.8	52.4	13.9	22.4	23.5	202.4
White Sox	89	10.4	1.4	14.8	12.4	6.7	31.5	4.8	171
Yankees	-1.5	-0.4	-0.9	0.5	3.2	19.5	14.1	65.2	99.7
	700.2	831.8	699.8	546.6	825	551.7	690	746.2	5558.4

[Moose Milligan]

Interesting that the Giants are worse than us.  That's a team that won 3 world series in the 2010s and made another one in the 2000s.

 

[Frobby]

I know there is a better way to embed that chart so you can scroll left to right, but I don't know what it is.  If anyone knows how, let me know.

[7Mo]

Very cool stuff. Thanks for all the research.

[Pickles]

Thanks for the work Frobby.  That must have take a lot of time.

This is some real good baseline stuff to talk about a drafts and expectations etc.

The problem- and of course this is not fault of your own- is that it takes so long to gather this information, you have virtual no way to evaluate the people making decisions before it's way too late- for better or worse.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Interesting that the Giants are worse than us.  That's a team that won 3 world series in the 2010s and made another one in the 2000s.

 

Yeah, the only player of note they picked up in that whole window was Matt Cain, drafted in 2002.   But after this window they picked up Lincecum (2006), Bumgarner (2007), Posey (2008), Crawford (2008) and Belt (2009).  Those 5 players alone have been worth about 155 rWAR in their careers.

[Aristotelian]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Interesting that the Giants are worse than us.  That's a team that won 3 world series in the 2010s and made another one in the 2000s.

 

I thought they were supposed to be better at player evaluation because Yaz. I'm so confused.

[Pickles]

Something I'd like to see, and it probably already exists, are probability charts for pick ranges.

So the average 5-10 pick is worth......WAR

The average 125-150 pick is worth......WAR

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Thanks for the work Frobby.  That must have take a lot of time.

This is some real good baseline stuff to talk about a drafts and expectations etc.

The problem- and of course this is not fault of your own- is that it takes so long to gather this information, you have virtual no way to evaluate the people making decisions before it's way too late- for better or worse.

Well, I think in a lot of cases you'll know that certain drafts were good within 5 years of the draft.  They won't have reached the numbers I cited, but you can sometimes tell they're gong to get there.    For example, we knew the 2010 draft (Manny) would turn out well very quickly.   But I think it is harder to confirm that a draft will turn out badly, because sometimes players take a while to develop, especially the ones drafted out of high school.    

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Well, I think in a lot of cases you'll know that certain drafts were good within 5 years of the draft.  They won't have reached the numbers I cited, but you can sometimes tell they're gong to get there.    For example, we knew the 2010 draft (Manny) would turn out well very quickly.   But I think it is harder to confirm that a draft will turn out badly, because sometimes players take a while to develop, especially the ones drafted out of high school.    

True.  But we're all going to be in here arguing in 3-4 years about Elias' drafting, and nobody is going to have a clue what they're talking about. 

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Pickles said:

True.  But we're all going to be in here arguing in 3-4 years about Elias' drafting, and nobody is going to have a clue what they're talking about. 

Same old, same old.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Same old, same old.

Zing!

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Zing!

I include myself in that group but I'm not as "loud" as some of the other know-it-alls.   lol

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

I include myself in that group but I'm not as "loud" as some of the other know-it-alls.   lol

A real meeting of the mind.