Connolly article on pitching

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Now, I know C_of_c and some other will say, “there’s no evidence the Angelos brothers will authorize that kind of spending.”   Well, I believe they will.   I think the whole point of the rebuild was to establish a good young homegrown core that could be built around by adding via free agency and trades at the right time.    But we’ll see.

I would like to believe that they will, too.  This offseason (lol, every offseason around here is always TeH MoSt ImPoRtAnT OfFseAsON EVAARRRR) will tell us a lot, IMO.  We'll have secured the #1 or #2 draft pick, AR will be ready to make his debut next summer, G-Rod will likely be ready, too.  

I wanted Taijuan Walker last offseason, that seemed like an obvious pick for us but of course we passed.  As you illustrated with your Toronto example, you can get decent guys out there.  I am hoping (but not confident) that Elias will bring in a guy or two like Walker or Matz.  If he sits on his thumbs and brings in a Harvey/King Felix type, you can rest assured that next year will probably be another 100 loss season or close to it.  

I really want to see Elias attack this offseason, be aggressive and bring in 2 or 3 good free agent pitchers.  I'm not saying he needs to bring in a guy like Greinke or Verlander, but I'd be stoked with Stroman (yes, SG, you're correct as usual, Stroman would be a good get), Danny Duffy, or Robbie Ray.  I'd even be somewhat SOMEWHAT happy with Jon Gray or Andrew Heaney.  Both of them aren't great but they'd probably be better than Akin/Kremer.  Even a guy like Teheran who's been hurt and is still only 30 years old would be fine.

I would love to see us pursue guys like that this offseason but I'm prepared for the worst.  

 

 

[Sports Guy]

48 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

And you think this organization adding David Price and Marcus Stroman next year is likely? You're criticizing him for not being realistic?

Where did I say it was realistic or that it was happening? 
 

I’ll wait for you to dig up that post.

[7Mo]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Where did I say it was realistic or that it was happening? 
 

I’ll wait for you to dig up that post.

So you're posting unrealistic stuff daily?

[SteveA]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think his plan is to parlay his work building the minors into a new job when this one rebuild ultimately fails.  I don't think the industry is going to hold him at fault.

The "industry" won't look askance at the way he has almost completely avoided using picks in the first 10 rounds on pitching?

[Sports Guy]

44 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I don't disagree. Most competitive teams bring in a veteran starter or two to put them over the top. Houston did.  I'm just not sure I buy that the O's pitching depth is a weakness compared to other organizations. 

The problem, imo, isn’t as much talent as it is how they are developing the talent.

I think if you have the pitchers we have to an organization like Tampa, they would get more out of them than we are.

Don’t  get me wrong, talent is part of it  but a guy like Ryan Yarborough is a pretty decent guy for them.  Is he more talented than say, Kevin Smith?  Probably not…but I would be surprised if Kevin Smith can emulate Yarborough but I wouldn’t be surprised if Tampa could get that out of him.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

So you're posting unrealistic stuff daily?

I’m posting discussion points but also can acknowledge that it’s not likely the Os will do the smart and non cheap thing as well.

[SteveA]

SG left out the most fun quote from the article:

The best way out of this mess is to grow those arms. And, right now, I see more fertilizer than crop in this organization when it comes to pitching. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, SteveA said:

SG left out the most fun quote from the article:

The best way out of this mess is to grow those arms. And, right now, I see more fertilizer than crop in this organization when it comes to pitching. 

I see a bunch of guys drafted to fill out minor league pitching staffs.

[interloper]

Ah, a thread dominated by SG and CoC. I'm good, thanks!

[GuidoSarducci]

2 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

Buy the arms.

This is mostly what the Nats did.  In 2019 of their top 4 starters, only Strasburg had been drafted by them.

They did use Fedde, Voth and Ross, who collectively acted as their 5th starter, along with Hellicksons brief disastorous sting.  Fedde and Voth were drafted by the Nats, Ross was acquired in a trade (same trade where they got Turner) 

The idea that we have to draft/grow 3 top regular starters in order to be competitive is just not true.   Means and one of Hall/Rodriguez would be enough if we can fill in the gaps smartly in FA.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

Ah, a thread dominated by SG and CoC. I'm good, thanks!

So you posted to say you won't post?

That's ever so helpful.

*Double Thumbs up*

[UMDTerrapins]

I think we should be ready to go after any good starter options if they present themselves by trade or free agency, but I'm looking at 2022 as designated year to fully audition what we have in-house. I think of our rotation in three parts:

1/2 - Grayson Rodriguez & John Means - 40% of our future rotation is locked down

3 - DL Hall, Mike Baumann, Kyle Bradish - I think it's a conservative bet that (at least) one of these guys will effectively settle in as a productive member of the rotation

4/5 - Tyler Wells, Bruce Zimmerman, Dean Kremer, Keegan Akin, Kevin Smith, Zac Lowther, Alex Wells, Blaine Knight, Drew Rom, Kyle Brnovich. Even assuming two of the guys I have in the #3 slot burn out or go to the bullpen, that leaves 10 possible guys we need to audition for the back end of the rotation. Yes, some of those guys regressed in 2021, but I think we're bundling them together as failures too quickly. As a block, they need way more ML innings, and some need more minor league experience still. 

 

We all like to think we have an enlightened view on who will succeed and who will not, but what we really need are innings for these guys. Time and patience. And some coaching changes. If we can find a guy outside the organization who slots in as a plus starter I'm obviously all for it. But I'm wary of blocking the back end of the rotation with an average starter at the expense of getting that 4/5 group opportunity. If we're not going from 110 losses this year to the playoffs next season, I want to use next season to effectively season and analyze the parts that we do have in-house. 

[HowAboutThat]

I’m not sure growing the arms is best. Remember that one of our most successful arms was a guy who was drafted as a short stop, I think, and then converted to pitcher.

I’m sure it’s not lost on Mike that the highest round pitcher he drafted has already been lost to TJ.

I suggested somewhere else that I think what he wants to do is assemble a deep farm And use his assets to acquire worthwhile arms That have less risk. Let other teams take the risk that their high picks will bust. That’s a very expensive strategy but it is a theory that does explain what Mike has been doing in not drafting arms.

And Mike can’t really be blamed that all of our prospects who have reached the mound this season have been lousy.

Edited August 20, 2021 by Philip
Typos

[Moose Milligan]

32 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

So you're posting unrealistic stuff daily?

He's posting unrealistic stuff daily, but he admits that he expects the Orioles won't do any of it.  That way, he gets to keep raging against the Orioles, can call them stupid, etc, because they didn't do things he views as smart.  And that's fine, everyone here does that to a degree.

14 minutes ago, Philip said:

I’m not sure growing the arms is best. Remember that one of our most successful arms was a guy who was drafted as a short stop, I think and then converted to pitcher.

I’m sure it’s not lost on Mike that the highest round pitcher he drafted has already been lost to TJ.

I suggested somewhere else that I think what he wants to do is assemble a deep farm And use his assets to trade worthwhile arms That have less risk. Let other teams take the risk that their high picks will bust. That’s a very expensive strategy but it is a theory that explain what Mike has been doing in not drafting arms.

And Mike can’t really be blamed that all of our prospects who have reached the mound this season have been lousy.

I think growing the arms is fine, if you can do it.  I sometimes cringe at the thought of spending a lot of money in free agency on pitching...though if you do that, you're hopefully in a situation where that arm or two can get you to a World Series.  

An expensive strategy would be signing a guy to a 8/260 million a year deal.  I'd much rather try to get 2 or 3 guys in the system like G-Rod.  But again, I don't think the Orioles can do it.

[UMDTerrapins]

12 minutes ago, Philip said:

I’m not sure growing the arms is best. Remember that one of our most successful arms was a guy who was drafted as a short stop, I think and then converted to pitcher.

I’m sure it’s not lost on Mike that the highest round pitcher he drafted has already been lost to TJ.

I suggested somewhere else that I think what he wants to do is assemble a deep farm And use his assets to trade worthwhile arms That have less risk. Let other teams take the risk that their high picks will bust. That’s a very expensive strategy but it is a theory that explain what Mike has been doing in not drafting arms.

And Mike can’t really be blamed that all of our prospects who have reached the mound this season have been lousy.

If I was building an organization from scratch, I'd invest more heavily in position players. And that's what Elias has done. I think we're at the point now that we can put more emphasis on drafting pitchers because there's enough depth on offense now, so I expect that we'll do that in the 2022 draft. From a macro perspective, I think Elias has done a fine job in the time he's been here. Building organizational depth was job #1, and that was in his wheelhouse. What remains to be seen is how he crafts a ML playoff roster, and a ML playoff coaching staff. To my memory, that was where Gillick was at his best. But until he proves he can do that, Elias is still a talent builder who is growing into his new job. I'd feel more comfortable if Elias had an assistant GM who had that experience on his resume.