Cedric Mullins - 30/30 ?

[Natty]

In the 49 games the O's have won this year Mullins is hitting .408 with 15 HR's, 31 RBI and has a 1.244 OPS season.

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Everything in Mullins' numbers this year scream this is NOT a fluke season. He doesn't have a weakness against fastball, breaking balls or offspeed and hit lefthanders as well as right handers. His EV, barrell%, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and all well above average.

Add in his top 10% OOA defensively and his 86th percentile sprint speed, and at 26 years old, I think we have ourselves a player to build around in center field.

On top of it, the way he'd bounce back this year when going into a mini slump or have a few hitless games in a row...just made it seem more real.  Just when you thought the mirage was fading away, he'd bust out with a few games of two or three hits and keep on trucking.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

On top of it, the way he'd bounce back this year when going into a mini slump or have a few hitless games in a row...just made it seem more real.  Just when you thought the mirage was fading away, he'd bust out with a few games of two or three hits and keep on trucking.

Mullins worst month of the year was in May with a .732 OPS and every other month his OPS has been .795 or higher. Before the season I think most of us would have been ok if Mullins had a .732 OPS for the season. He's far exceeded expectations and his season wasn't built on a hot couple months either.

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Mullins worst month of the year was in May with a .732 OPS and every other month his OPS has been .795 or higher. Before the season I think most of us would have been ok if Mullins had a .732 OPS for the season. He's far exceeded expectations and his season wasn't built on a hot couple months either.

Exactly.  The consistency has been remarkable.

Now that he's got 30-30 in the bag, it's going to be interesting to see if he can finish over .900.

@NattyI'm glad you didn't jinx it! 

[LA2]

On 9/25/2021 at 2:29 PM, Moose Milligan said:

Exactly.  The consistency has been remarkable.

Now that he's got 30-30 in the bag, it's going to be interesting to see if he can finish over .900.

@NattyI'm glad you didn't jinx it! 

It's inevitable: 30-squared is 900. He's also bound to hit .300 (or over) because 30 x 10 = 300! All very simple to predict.

[Just Regular]

Seeing Dunning today reminds me of Mullins-comp Adam Eaton, and the Giolito/Reynaldo/Dunning get from the 2016 Winter Meetings.

https://www.masnsports.com/byron-kerr/2020/04/revisiting-the-trade-that-brought-adam-eaton-to-the-nationals.html

For the White Sox, the Eaton trade value tree branched out to covering the cost of a very useful Lance Lynn rental.

After the 2016 season, Adam Eaton had 2300 PA of a 115 OPS+, 284/357/414, and had been a 5-win player for three full seasons.   He was 28 at the time of the trade, and had been a small school 19th round college outfielder.

During 2015 Spring Training, after the first of those three 5-win years, the White Sox extended him for 2015-2021 at 1/3/4/6/8/10/11.  Eaton opted to sell free agent years for ~3/30.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/white-sox-extend-adam-eaton.html

As the calendar fell, just about a year and a half (and two more great seasons) passed between extension and trade.  The Nationals gained one good year in four, but Flags Fly Forever.

I think Mullins next year could probably be 80% as good and still hold almost all his trade value by supplying Year 2 of proof of quality, so I think this offseason I'm more curious about extension than trade.   Like with Eaton, here's a guy whose baseball earnings haven't gotten to millions yet, so the marginal value of Millions 2/3/4/5, etc. still sky high.   If the CBA yields a 0-3 minimum boost from like 600K to $1M, I think for Mullins through 2022 that would represent a substantial percentage increase in career earnings (just 100K bonus his draft year, followed by several years of the minor league payscale).

With options exercised, Eaton in sum was about 7/43, so maybe say 7/50-ish with 2022 over 2015 inflation.   Would both parties be good in that ballpark?   Eaton's deal looks like it guaranteed about $20M for the then 1-year performer.

 

 

[Il BuonO]

On 9/24/2021 at 7:34 PM, Frobby said:

I remember saying at the start of the year that I thought his defense was good enough that he could be a starter if he could keep his OPS over .700.   Now the issue with 9 games remaining is if he’ll stay over .900.   Incredible.  

And a .300 BA, although, it’s less of a marker than in the past. 

His defense, especially with OAA looks good.  What does your eye tell you? 

I notice with that metric the above average play is all to his glove side. I really think he covers the gaps well, however, it makes sense that he’s better to his glove side. His deficiency is balls up against the wall. He’s looked less than stellar on balls there, but I admit he’s also made more than one play robbing a HR. 

Regardless, he’s more than solidified himself all around.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

And a .300 BA, although, it’s less of a marker than in the past. 

His defense, especially with OAA looks good.  What does your eye tell you? 

I feel he played better defense in the first 2-3 months than he has since.  May just be a function of getting nicked up a little over the long season and losing a half-step.  Still, not gonna complain.  

[LA2]

5 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

Seeing Dunning today reminds me of Mullins-comp Adam Eaton, and the Giolito/Reynaldo/Dunning get from the 2016 Winter Meetings.

https://www.masnsports.com/byron-kerr/2020/04/revisiting-the-trade-that-brought-adam-eaton-to-the-nationals.html

For the White Sox, the Eaton trade value tree branched out to covering the cost of a very useful Lance Lynn rental.

After the 2016 season, Adam Eaton had 2300 PA of a 115 OPS+, 284/357/414, and had been a 5-win player for three full seasons.   He was 28 at the time of the trade, and had been a small school 19th round college outfielder.

During 2015 Spring Training, after the first of those three 5-win years, the White Sox extended him for 2015-2021 at 1/3/4/6/8/10/11.  Eaton opted to sell free agent years for ~3/30.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/white-sox-extend-adam-eaton.html

As the calendar fell, just 18 months (and two more great seasons) passed between extension and trade.  The Nationals gained one good year in four, but Flags Fly Forever.

I think Mullins next year could probably be 80% as good and still hold almost all his trade value by supplying Year 2 of proof of quality, so I think this offseason I'm more curious about extension than trade.   Like with Eaton, here's a guy whose baseball earnings haven't gotten to millions yet, so the marginal value of Millions 2/3/4/5, etc. still sky high.   If the CBA yields a 0-3 minimum boost from like 600K to $1M, I think for Mullins through 2022 that would represent a substantial percentage increase in career earnings (just 100K bonus his draft year, followed by several years of the minor league payscale).

With options exercised, Eaton in sum was about 7/43, so maybe say 7/50-ish with 2022 over 2015 inflation.   Would both parties be good in that ballpark?   Eaton's deal looks like it guaranteed about $20M for the then 1-year performer.

 

 

Very interesting comparison. Thanks.

[Il BuonO]

42 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I feel he played better defense in the first 2-3 months than he has since.  May just be a function of getting nicked up a little over the long season and losing a half-step.  Still, not gonna complain.  

No reason for that. He’s surpassed what anyone could have expected. 

[SteveA]

I've been out of town and haven't watched or listened to any games.  Has there been a reason noted why Cedric was out of the lineup yesterday and today?  He pinch hit both days.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

I've been out of town and haven't watched or listened to any games.  Has there been a reason noted why Cedric was out of the lineup yesterday and today?  He pinch hit both days.

It's undercover tanking.  Rest the gold glove who just hit 30/30 a few days ago.  Play the injured guy who might fail to make a game changing play.  I understand resting Mullins for a day after hitting 30/30, but not sure why a 2nd day was needed. 

[Ruzious]

11 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

It's undercover tanking.  Rest the gold glove who just hit 30/30 a few days ago.  Play the injured guy who might fail to make a game changing play.  I understand resting Mullins for a day after hitting 30/30, but not sure why a 2nd day was needed. 

Or the O's aren't flat out lying when they reported that he's been rested because of a sore hamstring.  

[Just Regular]

I kind of imagine Mullins earned the privilege of deferring scheduled off days chasing a signature milestone, and he was taking advantage of the Rangers to catch up some.

Buck would certainly want him in there while BOS/TOR still have any stuff going on "for the good of baseball", but we'll see how that interacts with the decision science of load management this week.

If he stays good and the Orioles become good, not sure if I want 40 SB attempts/year to stick.

[Aristotelian]

11 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

It's undercover tanking.  Rest the gold glove who just hit 30/30 a few days ago.  Play the injured guy who might fail to make a game changing play.  I understand resting Mullins for a day after hitting 30/30, but not sure why a 2nd day was needed. 

They should not be doing anything to risk his health in meaningless games. Look what happened when they pushed Tyler Wells and everyone is jumping on Hyde. Rest Mullins and it is undercover tanking. Can't please everyone.