The Elias Astros drafts begin to come into focus

[Frobby]

When Mike Elias became our GM, there wasn’t enough information about most of the players he’d drafted to really judge how well he’d done.   But with three more years in the books, the picture is beginning to come into focus.   Here’s the players the Astros drafted while Elias was director of scouting  who have accrued at least 1.0 rWAR:

Correa, 34.1 rWAR, drafted 2012 debuted 2015

Bregman, 26.1 rWAR, 2015/2016

McCullers, 10.1 rWAR, 2012/2015

Laureano, 9.6 rWAR, 2014/2018

Tucker, 7.6 rWAR, 2015/2018

Phillips, 4.7 rWAR, 2012/2017

Straw, 4.0 rWAR, 2015/2018

Kemp, 3.5 rWAR, 2013/2018

Sandoval, 2.5 rWAR, 2015/2019

McCormick, 2.3 rWAR, 2017/.2021

Mengden, 2.0 rWAR, 2014/2016

JD Davis, 1.6 rWAR, 2014/17

Toro, 1.4 rWAR, 2016/2019

Meyers, 1.2 rWAR, 2017/2021

Thornton, 1.1 rWAR, 2015/2019

Together, these 15 players have accrued 111.8 rWAR so far in their careers.    That’s a very impressive 7 year total.   As some may recall from my study of every draft from 1998-2005, the mean team draft yielded 23.2 rWAR, and the median was 14.5.   Elias’ 7 drafts have averaged 16.0 rWAR already, and the players he drafted have years and years to pad their totals.   Many of the players listed above are just coming into their own (e.g. Kyle Tucker), and some haven’t even emerged from the minors yet.   

While this continues to bear watching, it’s becoming pretty clear that the Astros drafted very well under Elias’ watch.   
 

[glenn__davis]

Good research Frobby.  His drafts have certainly yielded good minor league results thus far.  Now it's time to see if that will translate to the majors.

As a totally random aside, seeing McCullers name reminds me of that ALCS-clinching game he had against Yankees a few years back. He came out of the pen and I'm pretty certain threw absolutely nothing but curveballs.  The Yankees knew what was coming and couldn't touch him.  That was just an awesome performance.

 

[Frobby]

By the way, in case you’re wondering, during that same period the O’s drafted 12 players who have reached at least 1.0 rWAR, totaling 73.0 rWAR as a group so far.   I don’t think that is too bad at all, especially considering the O’s had only one really high pick (Gausman, 16.8 rWAR) in that window.   I’d say when we look back in 15 years, there’s a good chance we will have exceeded the league average in the 2012-18 period.   

[interloper]

 

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

By the way, in case you’re wondering, during that same period the O’s drafted 12 players who have reached at least 1.0 rWAR, totaling 73.0 rWAR as a group so far.   I don’t think that is too bad at all, especially considering the O’s had only one really high pick (Gausman, 16.8 rWAR) in that window.   I’d say when we look back in 15 years, there’s a good chance we will have exceeded the league average in the 2012-18 period.   

I don't think it's a question at all that he will surpass this 73 rWAR total. Rutschman can hopefully match Machado, and that's the bulk of the work right there. The big difference so far is that with the pre-Elias O's, a lot of that WAR is coming from pitchers who didn't end up putting up that WAR for the O's. Elias hasn't drafted many pitchers, so he'll have to make that up with position player WAR, which is a much safer bet anyway. 

[Aristotelian]

I feel very confident in Elias's drafting ability. That said, I don't think comparing to "average" is apples to apples when he has been drafting for rebuilding teams with a lot of 1/1's and 1/2's. I would expect him to outperform the average.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I feel very confident in Elias's drafting ability. That said, I don't think comparing to "average" is apples to apples when he has been drafting for rebuilding teams with a lot of 1/1's and 1/2's. I would expect him to outperform the average.

I agree.   To be clear, he was drafting high from 2012-15.   From 2016-18 he was drafting low.   But the really high picks do allow you to rack up some disproportionate WAR.   Even though Appel was a bust, Elias easily made up for that with Correa and Bregman (who was a comp 1:2 pick for Aiken, who wasn’t signed).    Tucker, a 1:5 pick, is looking like a potential big winner as well.

[ShoelesJoe]

By my count the successful Elias draft picks for the Astros total 11 position players vs 4 pitchers. When we look back at his Orioles' draft record a decade from now I wouldn't be surprised if it's weighted even heavier towards successful position players. 

[now]

11 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

Good research Frobby.  His drafts have certainly yielded good minor league results thus far.  Now it's time to see if that will translate to the majors.

As a totally random aside, seeing McCullers name reminds me of that ALCS-clinching game he had against Yankees a few years back. He came out of the pen and I'm pretty certain threw absolutely nothing but curveballs.  The Yankees knew what was coming and couldn't touch him.  That was just an awesome performance.

 

Good catch. I've been remembering it as Charlie Morton, but your evidence puts that error to rest! Agree, that was awesome to behold, especially in this era of high heat, and against the MFYs.

[Babkins]

17 hours ago, interloper said:

 

I don't think it's a question at all that he will surpass this 73 rWAR total. Rutschman can hopefully match Machado, and that's the bulk of the work right there. The big difference so far is that with the pre-Elias O's, a lot of that WAR is coming from pitchers who didn't end up putting up that WAR for the O's. Elias hasn't drafted many pitchers, so he'll have to make that up with position player WAR, which is a much safer bet anyway. 

Machado was drafted in 2010 and wouldn’t be included in the group Frobby is referring to. I agree that it would be great to see Adley match Manny in WAR, though.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Babkins said:

Machado was drafted in 2010 and wouldn’t be included in the group Frobby is referring to. I agree that it would be great to see Adley match Manny in WAR, though.

He might over his first seven seasons but odds are extremely good Machado wins the career race.  He is going to have too big a head start.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He might over his first seven seasons but odds are extremely good Machado wins the career race.  He is going to have too big a head start.

Plus, catchers tend to have shorter careers, with a few notable exceptions.   

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Plus, catchers tend to have shorter careers, with a few notable exceptions.   

Yep, Posey just announced his retirement and I think it'd be fair for us to think that Posey would be a solid outcome for AR.

He ends with 44.9 rWAR.  Machado is at 45.2 and still has maybe a decade to go. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yep, Posey just announced his retirement and I think it'd be fair for us to think that Posey would be a solid outcome for AR.

He ends with 44.9 rWAR.  Machado is at 45.2 and still has maybe a decade to go. 

Well, Posey may not be the best example, since he appears to be retiring with plenty left in the tank (.889 OPS, 3.5 rWAR this year).    I think he’s just had enough of the grind and wants to spend time with his family.   With $168 mm banked, he’s turning down the $22 mm option the Giants say they would have exercised this year, which demonstrates he still has a lot of value.

But in any event, I’d sign in blood for Rutschman to match Posey’s career.   

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, Posey may not be the best example, since he appears to be retiring with plenty left in the tank (.889 OPS, 3.5 rWAR this year).    I think he’s just had enough of the grind and wants to spend time with his family.   With $168 mm banked, he’s turning down the $22 mm option the Giants say they would have exercised this year, which demonstrates he still has a lot of value.

But in any event, I’d sign in blood for Rutschman to match Posey’s career.   

College catcher, top 5 pick, played during the same era as Machado.  I think he's a fine example.  He also sat out 2020 and put up a .8 win season in 2019 so I'm not sure how much he really has left in the tank.

[SteveA]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

College catcher, top 5 pick, played during the same era as Machado.  I think he's a fine example.  He also sat out 2020 and put up a .8 win season in 2019 so I'm not sure how much he really has left in the tank.

It all depends on how long it takes the Giants' secret fountain of youth drug to wear off.  The one that made Posey, Curtis, Longoria, and others play as if they were suddenly 5 years younger.  If it only lasts a year then Posey is probably retiring at the exact right time.