Final Call: Who do the O's protect from the Rule 5 draft?

[Jammer7]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Stewart in the minors: .255/.358/.432

Neustrom: .261/.330/.419

Not a ton to choose from there.  Neustrom did come on somewhat this year but his 2021.line (.258/.344/.446) is virtually the same as Stewart’s career line, and Stewart did pretty well in AA (.279/.381/.485) and AAA (.255/.353/.444).   

From what I’ve read, Neustrom is probably a little better defensively, but he’s still average to below average.   

I think it’s pretty much a toss-up whether Neustrom will be slightly better or slightly worse than Stewart.   Gun to my head, I’d bet on Stewart, but I’d rather find more interesting players to bet on.  

 

Pretty fair look. Neustrom is a better defender at this time, maybe a full grade better. And supposedly Fuller really helped Neustrom emerge this year. 

I think some team will take him and take a good long look at him. It is debatable whether or not we should bother. With all of the injuries our OF’s have had, and Stowers not being ready, why keep Stewart who is basically a poor DH at this point? I guess they may hope our co-hitting coaches will be able to coax Stewart into actually being on time and barreling average fastballs. IDK. I guess we’ll see what they do. 

[Just Regular]

All this Stewart-Neustrom debate makes me wonder where they rate on the Jay Gibbons scale.

Gibbons was an 11th round college bat in the 1998 draft.  I read recently Clubs have four seasons with Age 19 and up signees, so perhaps it was one season less a generation ago.  I'm not sure why the Blue Jays wouldn't have had 2001 along with 1998/1999/2000 if those were the rules then?   Regardless Gibbons became a 2001 opening day Oriole after being taken in 2000 Rule 5 draft after just three years in Toronto minors.

Age 21 Gibbons 1998 signed and was waaaay too good for rookie ball, but stayed there all summer.

In both his 1999 and 2000 minors full years, he was .900 OPS guy, including AA year with nearly 1/1 K/BB ratio before becoming the Orioles selection.    That seems...more promising than either of our guys, and he was a nice Rule 5 win.

The 2001 Jays had Age 27 Shannon Stewart and Jose Cruz, and Age 30 Raul Mondesi as their starters, with Vernon Wells about to break in, so I guess their OF then was fairly strong.

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

All this Stewart-Neustrom debate makes me wonder where they rate on the Jay Gibbons scale.

Gibbons was an 11th round college bat in the 1998 draft.  I read recently Clubs have four seasons with Age 19 and up signees, so perhaps it was one season less a generation ago.  I'm not sure why the Blue Jays wouldn't have had 2001 along with 1998/1999/2000 if those were the rules then?   Regardless Gibbons became a 2001 opening day Oriole after being taken in 2000 Rule 5 draft after just three years in Toronto minors.

Age 21 Gibbons 1998 signed and was waaaay too good for rookie ball, but stayed there all summer.

In both his 1999 and 2000 minors full years, he was .900 OPS guy, including AA year with nearly 1/1 K/BB ratio before becoming the Orioles selection.    That seems...more promising than either of our guys, and he was a nice Rule 5 win.

The 2001 Jays had Age 27 Shannon Stewart and Jose Cruz, and Age 30 Raul Mondesi as their starters, with Vernon Wells about to break in, so I guess their OF then was fairly strong.

Gibbons was an excellent get in the Rule 5, and I’d agree his MiL performance outshone Stewart or Neustrom.  Was looking at who else the Jays had at 1B/OF in their system besides Wells then.  They had a guy named Andy Thompson who’d been a solid OF for them in AA/AAA for a couple of years, and Kevin Witt who’d been pretty good in AAA for two years but hadn’t cracked the Jays lineup.   

[Roll Tide]

Felix Bautista and his 100 MPH fastball is one

 

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/11/will-a-100-mph-fastball-get-this-pitcher-on-the-40-man.html

[wildcard]

I think there is room to keep Neustrom and Stewart.   I would keep Stewart until Stowers is ready for the majors.  Unless  Elias finds a waiver wire OFer  makes the minimum.  O's need the back up for Hays and Santander that may supply some offense(unlike McKenna).  Stewart has a option  so can spend some time at AAA.  After Stowers is ready Stewart can be traded for a couple of Dominican players.  Elias like to do that.

Neustrom is not ready for the majors yet but I think someone takes him for his power and hitting vs righties if he is left exposed.    He could be helpful in the second half if Mancini or Santander have a great first half and Elias finds a decent trade.

 

 

[interloper]

31 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Felix Bautista and his 100 MPH fastball is one

 

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/11/will-a-100-mph-fastball-get-this-pitcher-on-the-40-man.html

Dude will absolutely get drafted if we don't protect him. This one would bug me if we don't.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

On 11/14/2021 at 4:33 PM, Can_of_corn said:

With the top rated farm system shouldn't we be at the point in which we are using all 40 slots for our own guys?  If someone can't make another team's 40 why would we want to add them to our 26?

Stop with your common sense. Only thing I am confident in is that he will make the wrong decisions. If he believes in his high ranked system (which has a lot of mid level skilled players and few studs), then protect them, there is plenty of room. Moment of truth in some ways. Batista will easily get plucked, don’t be dumb, protect him, you have protected much much worse.

Edited November 18, 2021 by NelsonCruuuuuz

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Felix Bautista and his 100 MPH fastball is one

 

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/11/will-a-100-mph-fastball-get-this-pitcher-on-the-40-man.html

Good Bautista with his arm is worth protecting. 

[sportsfan8703]

I just don’t see how Ritchie Martin is still on the 40 man?  What analytics does he have going for him?  SS ability?

Also, I think we leave two spots open to target arms similar to Scroeler and Wells. 
 

Looks like we’ll probably turn over 50% of the 40 man between now and rule 5 deadline next year. Maybe more like 66%. 

[wildcard]

If Urias or Mateo are injured who replaces them?  That is why Martin is still on the 40 man.  If Grenier does not get claimed in the Rule 5 draft then Martin may go.  If the O's sign Galvis or Iglesias Martin may go.

[UMDTerrapins]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If Urias or Mateo are injury who plays SS?  That is why Martin is still on the 40 man.  If Grenier does not get claimed in the Rule 5 draft then Martin may go.  If the O's sign Galvis or Iglesias Martin may go.

Roch’s story this morning brought up a good point. They may use the (second) pick for catcher depth.
 

I assume if they don’t, depending on the roster later this offseason, Martin could end up DFA’d to make room for a ML catcher pickup. Will be interesting to see not just what players are exposed for our first pick, but also what catchers are available. 

[wildcard]

26 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Roch’s story this morning brought up a good point. They may use the (second) pick for catcher depth.
 

I assume if they don’t, depending on the roster later this offseason, Martin could end up DFA’d to make room for a ML catcher pickup. Will be interesting to see not just what players are exposed for our first pick, but also what catchers are available. 

There are so many guys the could come off the 40 man roster before opening day.  It would not surprise me to see  any of Jones, Nevin, Martin, Diaz. Smith, Fry, Kriske, Krehbiel, Mattson, Bannon either released or traded for younger  prospects.

[UMDTerrapins]

47 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There are so many guys the could come off the 40 man roster before opening day.  It would not surprise me to see  any of Jones, Nevin, Martin, Diaz. Smith, Fry, Kriske, Krehbiel, Mattson, Bannon either released or traded for younger  prospects.

Agreed. I think Jones will go into spring training as an outfield prospect who can also play 2B if needed. How that changes his security on the 40 man is debatable. If they think they might deal Mullins and/or Santander by next trade deadline, that could help his case. 

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Agreed. I think Jones will go into spring training as an outfield prospect who can also play 2B if needed. How that changes his security on the 40 man is debatable. If they think they might deal Mullins and/or Santander by next trade deadline, that could help his case. 

Jones has to hit a whole lot better to be useful in the outfield.

[Aristotelian]

Jones is another guy who's main quality he has going for him is that he's already on the 40 man.