Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens on the Orioles’ FA Needs

[BohKnowsBmore]

3 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Getting other good starting pitchers does not mean we're giving up on in-house guys. There's plenty of innings to go around and we're not close to filling them with what we have now.

Agreed. Adding a starting pitcher is a no-regrets move IMO.

[NCRaven]

I'd like to go with Matteo and Urias at 2B and SS to start the season, and sign Josh Harrison to a two year deal to play third.  He's been solid for the past two years hitting .278/.352/.418 in 2020 and .279/.341/.400 in 2021 and he only made $1 mil last year.  Signing him for a year with a club option would firm up 3B, but would have no impact on Westburg, Henderson, Mayo or any other infield prospect.

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, NCRaven said:

I'd like to go with Matteo and Urias at 2B and SS to start the season, and sign Josh Harrison to a two year deal to play third.  He's been solid for the past two years hitting .278/.352/.418 in 2020 and .279/.341/.400 in 2021 and he only made $1 mil last year.  Signing him for a year with a club option would firm up 3B, but would have no impact on Westburg, Henderson, Mayo or any other infield prospect.

I like the way you think.  1 plus a option would be good.  I like Urias at 2B and Mateo at SS. I guess they figure that out in ST.

[Aristotelian]

Harrison makes perfect sense for us. Get it done Mike.

[Sports Guy]

10 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Harrison makes perfect sense for us. Get it done Mike.

Yep..we definitely need more mediocrity!

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep..we definitely need more mediocrity!

There is a lot better chance the O's will sign Harrison than Bryant.

[Sports Guy]

28 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There is a lot better chance the O's will sign Harrison than Bryant.

Of course..but so what?  That speaks to them not caring about winning.  That’s the message you want from them?

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course..but so what?  That speaks to them not caring about winning.  That’s the message you want from them?

Its time for the O's to care about winning.  Not that every  player on the team has to be a superstar.  With Westburg and Henderson coming probably in 2023 the O's need an average guy that can offer something to the team.   If Harrison can bring  279/341/400/741  and play decent defense at 3B on a one year contract that is about as good as the O's are going to do.

I rather see the O's spend money on a couple of relievers that can find the strike zone consistently and maybe a starter.

[Frobby]

“Care about winning” is an ambiguous phrase.   I want the team to be a contender as soon as possible without jeopardizing its ability to contend over the long term.   It’s pretty unrealistic to think the O’s can contend in 2022, so the question is, will spending a lot of money on high quality free agents this year be a good long term investment because those players will still be here when the team is ready to contend, or are we just wasting money that is better deployed at a later time?    

Some people avoid that hard question by denying that money not spent this year can be spent at a later time.   And I’ve realized that those people are never going to change their mind, and they’re not going to change my mind either.   

My personal opinion is we are better off waiting unless a specific opportunity comes along that seems like a bargain.  If you can get Marcus Stroman for six years at a price you would have been willing to pay for five years, by all means do it.   

Then the question is, if we don’t see an opportunity like that, is it worthwhile to pick up a couple of players who aren’t above average, but are clear upgrades to what we have?   Or are we better off just giving opportunities to unproven players while we wait for our top minor leaguers to arrive?   It’s debatable, but I’d like to see more stability in the rotation and the infield even if the players acquired aren’t going to push us over .500.    
 

[Aristotelian]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course..but so what?  That speaks to them not caring about winning.  That’s the message you want from them?

I don't really care about message. I care about smart decisions and long term success. We have three guys, maybe more, who are likely to be able to play 3B for years to come. If we are going to overspend, do it for a SS or SP. In the meantime, Harrison makes total sense.

[spiritof66]

I hope I'm wrong, but I think the most we realistically can hope for is that the Orioles will sign an established starting pitcher and an infielder (maybe a third baseman who will supply some offense or a versatile middle infielder) who sit closer to the top of the dumpster than the team's recent free-agent acquisitions.

Pitchers who have established themselves as mid-rotation starters with decent teams (or have slightly bigger roles on bad teams, or bottom-of-the-rotation guys with good teams) will have at least a few years of major-league experience. There's lots of demand for pitchers like that. They won't come cheap, and they'll be looking for either 3-4 year contracts or shorter-term ones that will position them to make more money afterwards as free agents or near-free agents. I don't think ownership is willing to spend $8-$12 million a year to add any of those guys -- maybe more to convince them to pitch in Camden Yards with a real bad team, a mediocre defense and a bad bullpen. It looks to me more likely that the Orioles will hold off until it's absolutely clear that a rotation and a few good relievers can't be built on the cheap from from within the system (reinforced by a free agent or prospect-level reliever or two at the ML minimum to $2 million range). That would put off the acquisition of established pitching talent for at least another year, maybe two.

I think the infield situation is similar: as long as ownership can look at a depth chart with guys who might turn out to be very good major leaguers at minimum cost, I don't expect them to spend more than a few million a year on a free agent or to commit to a contract of more than a couple of years. You obviously can't sign a top-flight middle infielder that way. The main difference from the starting pitching situation is that the market is a lot better for buyers right now than the starting pitching market. You might be able to find a bargain who will give you a year or two of good performance at a reasonable price and/or some return in a trade, and you even be able to re-sign him.

To me, that's the meaning, or part of it, to Elias's calls for patience: until the Orioles know where the holes on the 2023 and later teams will be -- that is, until it gets clearer which of the young Orioles players and top prospects become valuable major leaguers, and which ones will wash out -- the payroll increases and salary commitments will be modest. There's another event that could speed up the schedule, but we have no idea when that will happen.

[Sports Guy]

45 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Its time for the O's to care about winning.  Not that every  player on the team has to be a superstar.  With Westburg and Henderson coming probably in 2023 the O's need an average guy that can offer something to the team.   If Harrison can bring  279/341/400/741  and play decent defense at 3B on a one year contract that is about as good as the O's are going to do.

I rather see the O's spend money on a couple of relievers that can find the strike zone consistently and maybe a starter.

We have no idea what those guys will be able to do, if they will be at third, etc…they need to bring in a real Option at third.  Harrison isn’t that good, especially as an everyday player.

 

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I don't really care about message. I care about smart decisions and long term success. We have three guys, maybe more, who are likely to be able to play 3B for years to come. If we are going to overspend, do it for a SS or SP. In the meantime, Harrison makes total sense.

A lot wrong with this but whatever.

[sportsfan8703]

Remember that signing a FA means that someone goes bye bye from the 40 man. So it’s really a two pronged move. 
 

Plus we have the whole offseason of top waiver priority. That’s how we landed Urias, Mateo, and Guiterrez. 

Edited November 17, 2021 by sportsfan8703

[Sports Guy]

Josh Harrison turns 35 in July.

He has been worth a total of 1.5 fWAR the last 4 seasons.  That spans 300ish games and over 1200 at bats.

He has played less 200 innings at third in that 4 year span.

Baseball reference has him at a 2.1 WAR over that same time frame But again, remember that his time has mainly been at second and that impacts that number.  His WAR goes down at third playing at a similar level.

So, why should we think that he’s ready to take over 3rd everyday?

More than that, why would he sign here?  Hes a 34 year old journeyman UTi guy that can provide value for a contender.  We aren’t outbidding anyone for him, at least not by some big amount.  
 

I don’t see much upside to this move at all.  I know he is coming off a decent partial season but so what?  
At his age, he could fall off a cliff at any point and it’s not like he needs much decline for that to occur.