MLBTR: Can We Get Excited About the Orioles Yet?

[now]

To me the article teased about the wisdom of looking ahead with a long-term deal for a big name (e.g., inking 7 years to cover our window starting in the next 2-3), then basically backed off and said it was unlikely.

"Maybe next year..."

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I would be surprised if Fox and Martin are both still on the 40 man on opening day. Off-season has just begun. I don't think Fox indicates anything about Elias's 2022 plan.

I think Fox moves up the ladder a bit.   I'd put him ahead of Jones, Mattson, Kriske, Krehbiel, and  Bannon.   Urias, Mateo and Fox up the middle.  Fox is the only one of the three with an option so he can move up and down to Norfolk.

[Sports Guy]

If we had an ownership that cared about the fans and the on field product, we could really be excited this year.

Alas, we are stuck with what we got so the enthusiasm is tempered.

[LA2]

I think he undervalues what Mountcastle contributed. And if the following had been posted by certain OH'ers, it would have been seen as sarcastic:

Quote

Frankly, Elias has already been relatively busy this winter. He allowed Hunter Harvey to be claimed off waivers while re-signing Marcos Diplan and Spenser Watkins on minor league deals.

 

 

[HowAboutThat]

22 minutes ago, LA2 said:

I think he undervalues what Mountcastle contributed. If the following had been posted by certain OH'ers, it would have been seen as sarcastic:

 

I don’t think he does undervalue Mountcastle, who was only worth .9 WAR. His value will go up next year now that that left-field madness is done with and he can focus on DH and first base, and hopefully his first base defense, not bad now, will improve, but it’s hard to get excited about .9 WAR.

[Sports Guy]

I don’t think he is undervaluing RM..I think Os fans overvalue/overrate him.

[NCRaven]

Shut your mouth.  Mountcastle is a beast.

[bobmc]

11 hours ago, LA2 said:

I think he undervalues what Mountcastle contributed. If the following had been posted by certain OH'ers, it would have been seen as sarcastic:

 

Sure sounds sarcastic to me, and I laughed!  

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think he is undervaluing RM..I think Os fans overvalue/overrate him.

But, the dingers!   

I don’t think we know yet exactly how good a hitter Mountcastle will become.  Right now, I’d say his upside is a slightly better version of Trey Mancini.   His downside is a slightly worse version of Trey Mancini.

Mancini: .271/.333/.472, 115 OPS+
Mountcastle: .270/.324/.488, 117 OPS+

Mountcastle compiled his numbers at 23-24.   Mancini played a few games at  24 and had his first full season at 25.   For that reason, I’d guess Mountcastle will end up being the better of the two.   A lot depends on whether he can control the strike zone a bit more as he matures and the O’s keep drilling that into him.  

[Sports Guy]

37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

But, the dingers!   

I don’t think we know yet exactly how good a hitter Mountcastle will become.  Right now, I’d say his upside is a slightly better version of Trey Mancini.   His downside is a slightly worse version of Trey Mancini.

Mancini: .271/.333/.472, 115 OPS+
Mountcastle: .270/.324/.488, 117 OPS+

Mountcastle compiled his numbers at 23-24.   Mancini played a few games at  24 and had his first full season at 25.   For that reason, I’d guess Mountcastle will end up being the better of the two.   A lot depends on whether he can control the strike zone a bit more as he matures and the O’s keep drilling that into him.  

Yes..he is probably a slightly better version of Mancini.  So, he’s a guy who can spike a year like 2019 but be pretty underwhelming in other years.  Overall, an 820ish OpS guy with a low OBP and minimal defensive value.  A good player when they are making no money but once they start to get expensive, you don’t want to pay them.

He’s a 2-2.5 WAR guy in most years.  Good player but nothing more.  If a team would take him as a main cog in a trade for a controllable pitcher, I trade him in a heartbeat.

[Roll Tide]

19 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Pretty solid piece IMO on the state of the Orioles entering the off-season. Short answer is qualified yes, with rebuild about to enter a new phase. Does not expect superstar free agent although a SS could make sense similar to how San Diego signed Manny during their rebuild. More likely names are Seeking, Harrison, Iglesias etc. Nothing we don't already know but solid take for a national media source.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/can-we-get-excited-about-the-orioles-yet.html

 

I’d be okay with bringing Iglesias back

[Aristotelian]

I think we all know that Mountcastle is a solid hitter with plus power, but OBP issues, limited defensive flexibility, and right handed. I don't see him particularly overrated or underrated. 

[LA2]

On 11/20/2021 at 9:04 PM, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think he is undervaluing RM..I think Os fans overvalue/overrate him.

The word used in the article to describe Mountcastle was "palatable" and he cited his season stats with no reference to the early season hole he climbed his way steadily out of. We're dealing, of course, with nuances here, but I think "palatable" is a just a notch or two above barf-worthy, nauseating, or emetic.

[LA2]

21 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I think we all know that Mountcastle is a solid hitter with plus power, but OBP issues, limited defensive flexibility, and right handed. I don't see him particularly overrated or underrated. 

The word used in the article to describe Mountcastle was "palatable." I find that too skeptical.

[Frobby]

One idea floated in this article is trading for Paul DeJong, who the article compares to JJ Hardy.   DeJong is under a long term contract that pays 2/$15.3 mm in 2022-23 and then has team options at $12.5 mm and $15 mm in ‘24-25.   

DeJong had a down year in 2021, .197/.284/.390 in .113 games, good for 1.6 rWAR.   For his career, he’s at .241/.312/.443, 12.9 rWAR.   He’ll only be 28 years old next season, but the arc of his career has kind of been pointing south: his year by year OPS’s have been .857, .746, .752, .671, .674.    It is suggested that it would not take much in return to acquire DeJong.   

So, is there any merit to this idea?