Hays discusses core injury sustained last season

[LookinUp]

You think Hays can be better than Mullins because we've seen his speed and power combination over short spurts. It's awesome.

Then you look at Mullins and realize he has that too.

Best case is they're equals at roughly 5.0 WAR. That's essentially a realistic upside for both moving forward, though Mullins already eclipsed that obviously.

[Frobby]

37 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

You think Hays can be better than Mullins because we've seen his speed and power combination over short spurts. It's awesome.

Then you look at Mullins and realize he has that too.

Best case is they're equals at roughly 5.0 WAR. That's essentially a realistic upside for both moving forward, though Mullins already eclipsed that obviously.

I don’t expect either to be a 5 WAR player going forward.   Promise me 3.5 per year and I’ll sign in blood.  

[LookinUp]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t expect either to be a 5 WAR player going forward.   Promise me 3.5 per year and I’ll sign in blood.  

Not that I disagree, but that's less total WAR than we got last year from them combined.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Saying that, he needs to improve his hitting against right-handed pitching after a year in which he hit slashed .221/.283/.400/.682 in 315 PAs against them. Now the good news is this is really the first time he's had a big split so I'm not overly worried unless we have another season where he has a big split. Then you start thinking he's Gary Roenicke and may need to have a platoon mate (Neustrom???).

On this bit, the 2022 Baseball Forecaster came out today, and its Hays comment highlighted 2nd Half vRHP improvement.

It gives an 84/102 1st Half/2nd Half split of his OPS+ against righties (and 140/113 versus lefties).

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Not that I disagree, but that's less total WAR than we got last year from them combined.

I know, but it’s still above average.   Need to get more from the other corner spot.

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

On this bit, the 2022 Baseball Forecaster came out today, and its Hays comment highlighted 2nd Half vRHP improvement.

It gives an 84/102 1st Half/2nd Half split of his OPS+ against righties (and 140/113 versus lefties).

Well, that’s encouraging.  I knew he was better in the second half vs. RHP, but not by how much.   

What is Baseball Forecaster?
 

[LookinUp]

53 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I know, but it’s still above average.   Need to get more from the other corner spot.

And from about 3 infielders, catcher and ~10-12 pitchers. With that, we'll be good!

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Well, that’s encouraging.  I knew he was better in the second half vs. RHP, but not by how much.   

What is Baseball Forecaster?
 

Its the annual book from the Ron Shandler-led BaseballHQ folks, whose stuff is generally geared for the rotisserie/fantasy audience.   

They've accelerated their "digestion of previous year" capabilities enough that the last few years they have been able to deliver the PDF before Thanksgiving.   Each hitter and pitcher has a 3-line capsule along with the statistical selections it thinks are most worthy of showing.

[waroriole]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

On this bit, the 2022 Baseball Forecaster came out today, and its Hays comment highlighted 2nd Half vRHP improvement.

It gives an 84/102 1st Half/2nd Half split of his OPS+ against righties (and 140/113 versus lefties).

Do they make projections for next year?

[Just Regular]

8 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Do they make projections for next year?

Yes, 753 OPS for '22 Hays.

Hopefully the 483 2nd half SLG wasn't him being out over his skis like the projection thinks, but growth from a young talent finally able to show up many months in a row (though I guess as we are learning here we can't precisely say he was healthy, just...posting up).

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Yes, 753 OPS for '22 Hays.

Hopefully the 483 2nd half SLG wasn't him being out over his skis like the projection thinks, but growth from a young talent finally able to show up many months in a row (though I guess as we are learning here we can't precisely say he was healthy, just...posting up).

What about Mullins?  

FWIW, Marcel has Hays at .765 and Mullins at .801 next year, while Steamer has them at .766 and .774.   
 

 

[Ruzious]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I know, but it’s still above average.   Need to get more from the other corner spot.

Tbh, going into last season, I thought Santander was the best pure hitter of our 3 OFers.  But watching and listening to late season interviews, it was clear that Mullins and Hays (and Mountcastle) totally bought into the hitting approaches promoted by the organization, but watching Santander try to pull everything and showing very poor plate discipline - for instance - swinging at every high fastball thrown his way... is there any reason to believe he can learn the lessons that Hays, Mullins, and Mountcastle seem to have learned?  I guess the saying is - the first step is to understand you have a problem, and he's got to understand that by now.  It'd also help a lot if he can play the season without limping all year.  

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

What about Mullins?  

FWIW, Marcel has Hays at .765 and Mullins at .801 next year, while Steamer has them at .766 and .774.   
 

 

795 for Mullins.   The comment is generally optimistic on the improvement being real, rooted in the tangible stand down from switch-hitting.   

I hadn't known of the second example until recently, but new Tigers catcher Tucker Barnhart also "switch-quit" in mid-2019.   He got a big 2nd Half out of it, but not so much last two years...hopefully Mullins improvements prove more durable.

https://www.mlb.com/news/tucker-barnhart-switching-to-left-handed-hitting