My Tampa Bay Rays obsession. Why? And what it means to the O's.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Tampa competes with the big boys because they are smart, because they draft and develop well and because they don’t get tied to fan favorites and generally let guys go a year early rather than a year too late.

They have done a good job of trading young guys with some hype that they didn’t pan out. 

Yes, they have figured out some things that are undervalued…but ultimately, they are just really smart and play very good, fundamentally sound baseball.  That isn’t a team that normally beats itself with errors, baserunning misrskes and things like that.

Yes, and it’s easy to say you want to emulate them, but harder to actually do it.  You can’t just say, “we should draft and develop well.”    There’s a million things that go into that and sometimes you just have better people doing certain jobs than the other team does.

Now, I do think their philosophy on when to trade players away is something we can emulate to a large degree.  But if lots of teams start doing that, the return on those types of players will go down.  

[OriolesMagic83]

I'm surprised the O's haven't adopted more of the Tampa Bay model, especially regarding pitching.  Has a team ever won 100 games before with its only good starter healthy for 1/2 a season.  I would like the O's to try things like stacking failed starters and getting 3 or 4 innings from each.  The starter idea seems like something the O's should adopt too.  It will be interesting to see how Elias puts a pitching staff together.  A lot of the answers have to come from outside the organization, imo.

[Moose Milligan]

One of the weirdest things on this board continues to be the strange obsession with certain "models."

"Well the Tampa model means..."

"No, it's the A's model we're following."

"Well on June 7th 2016, Mike Elias leaned to the left and ripped a fart while on a scouting trip so that must mean it's the Astros model we're following."

"No you idiots, it's the Giant model Elias wants to bring here."

If you guys think that Elias is going to pass up on what he perceives to be a good move because it doesn't fit in the framework of a certain "model" that he has to be a slave to, then you're all out to lunch.

[wildcard]

9 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

One of the weirdest things on this board continues to be the strange obsession with certain "models."

"Well the Tampa model means..."

"No, it's the A's model we're following."

"Well on June 7th 2016, Mike Elias leaned to the left and ripped a fart while on a scouting trip so that must mean it's the Astros model we're following."

"No you idiots, it's the Giant model Elias wants to bring here."

If you guys think that Elias is going to pass up on what he perceives to be a good move because it doesn't fit in the framework of a certain "model" that he has to be a slave to, then you're all out to lunch.

Both you and Frobby have used some form of the word slave to object to following any model.   I am certainly not suggesting that the O's should follow what any other teams does in a strict matter.

However, what Tampa has  done is unusual in winning 100 game with a 77m payroll.   I would think the O's are looking at what they did and see if some of those methods make sense for the O's rebuild.   This thread is just pointing out some of the methods that I see that  made Tampa successful.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Both you and Frobby have used some form of the word slave to object to following any model.   I am certainly not suggesting that the O's should follow what any other teams does in a strict matter.

However, what Tampa has  done is unusual in winning 100 game with a 77m payroll.   I would think the O's are looking at what they did and see if some of those methods make sense for the O's rebuild.   This thread is just pointing out some of the methods that I see that  made Tampa successful.

With this explanation, I would agree with you.   I just feel like some of your other posts have gone further.    But let’s just leave that behind.   

One thing from the OP I wanted to point out is that it can be misleading to say Tampa led the league in reliever innings, because of their frequent tactic of using openers.  Look at Ryan Yarbrough for example.   He had five games where he entered in the 2nd inning and pitched 5, 5.2, 5, 6 and 4.2 innings.   All those were by design.   So that’s 26.1 “relief” innings where he essentially was functioning as a starter, and I’m not even counting three other games where he entered in the third inning and another where he entered with two outs in the first inning but only lasted two innings.   I think Tampa’s pitching usage pattern is really complex.   They use openers who can go anywhere from 0.1 - 2.0 innings depending on what the team wants, they  use starters but sometimes intentionally limit them to 3-4 innings even if they are pitching well, and other times they go traditional.   Sometimes it’s hard to tell if they pulled a guy because that was their plan or whether he just wasn’t pitching well.   I do think the O’s should look at this but it’s tough to emulate unless you have the right personnel for it.  

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

With this explanation, I would agree with you.   I just feel like some of your other posts have gone further.    But let’s just leave that behind.   

One thing from the OP I wanted to point out is that it can be misleading to say Tampa led the league in reliever innings, because of their frequent tactic of using openers.  Look at Ryan Yarbrough for example.   He had five games where he entered in the 2nd inning and pitched 5, 5.2, 5, 6 and 4.2 innings.   All those were by design.   So that’s 26.1 “relief” innings where he essentially was functioning as a starter, and I’m not even counting three other games where he entered in the third inning and another where he entered with two outs in the first inning but only lasted two innings.   I think Tampa’s pitching usage pattern is really complex.   They use openers who can go anywhere from 0.1 - 2.0 innings depending on what the team wants, they  use starters but sometimes intentionally limit them to 3-4 innings even if they are pitching well, and other times they go traditional.   Sometimes it’s hard to tell if they pulled a guy because that was their plan or whether he just wasn’t pitching well.   I do think the O’s should look at this but it’s tough to emulate unless you have the right personnel for it.  

Tampa appears to have tried to limit the workload on young starters like Fleming, McClanahan, Rasmussen, Patino by limiting their innings per start whether they were pitching well or not.   They let more experienced  Glasnow pitch deep into game until he got hurt.    They used veteran starter Hill and Wacha to eat innings though  realizing that neither is in his prime  and would have troubles at times.    All this put more innings on relievers and they use the relievers in  short outings.   And they didn't use relievers on back to back days often.

The O's will have two starters that can go deep in games in Means and Lyles, though Lyles will need to be pulled in some games when he is not on.

  But the O's will have several young starters that might response well to the 4 inning approach. Grayson because his innings will be limited in 2022.   Tony has talked about  Bradish and Baumann being more like relievers.  Maybe 4 innings fit them well.  Then there are several starters that have not had a lot success yet like Akin, Zimmerman and Lowther.  Shorter outing may also benefit them. 

[Sports Guy]

Most ML pitchers would or do struggle to go through a lineup multiple times. 
 

Tampa just eliminates that and uses their pitchers at their best.  Again, it’s just smart.

Im Sure they would rather have 3-4 starters that will give them 5-7 innings a night but it’s not easy to get that.  They could be on their way with guys like Patino, Baz and McClahanan.  
 

Tampa is an organization that just adapts to what they have.  That’s what makes them so smart.  They don’t try to fit a square peg into a round hole.  They play to the strengths of their ballpark.
 

The idea that we should emulate them becomes misleading because it’s talked about w/r/t spending money.  They Orioles aren’t going to be a team that only spends 60-80M on their payroll in the long term.

Of course you should always emulate intelligence but we can have a higher margin for error than TB does.  

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Most ML pitchers would or do struggle to go through a lineup multiple times. 
 

Tampa just eliminates that and uses their pitchers at their best.  Again, it’s just smart.

Im Sure they would rather have 3-4 starters that will give them 5-7 innings a night but it’s not easy to get that.  They could be on their way with guys like Patino, Baz and McClahanan.  
 

Tampa is an organization that just adapts to what they have.  That’s what makes them so smart.  They don’t try to fit a square peg into a round hole.  They play to the strengths of their ballpark.
 

The idea that we should emulate them becomes misleading because it’s talked about w/r/t spending money.  They Orioles aren’t going to be a team that only spends 60-80M on their payroll in the long term.

Of course you should always emulate intelligence but we can have a higher margin for error than TB does.  

That is true for Tampa now.   But they are already thinking about 2023-2027.   They pay a 2m/yr penalty if that move to another city in 2023-2026 and nothing after 2027.   If they can find a city where attendance is much higher they may support a higher payroll in the not too distance future.

[Moose Milligan]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

Both you and Frobby have used some form of the word slave to object to following any model.   I am certainly not suggesting that the O's should follow what any other teams does in a strict matter.

However, what Tampa has  done is unusual in winning 100 game with a 77m payroll.   I would think the O's are looking at what they did and see if some of those methods make sense for the O's rebuild.   This thread is just pointing out some of the methods that I see that  made Tampa successful.

I think (rather, hope) that the Orioles will remain flexible and do things that are smart regardless of who's methods they are.  It doesn't really even matter who's methods they are as long as they make the right decisions and get **** done.  

[SteveA]

Any talk of us in any emulating the Rays is completely absurd.

Look at their drafts.   They take pitchers frequently in the top 10 rounds.   The Elias led Orioles don't.

With that huge, basic difference in draft strategy, any attempt to assume any kind of similarity between what Elias is doing and how the Rays do things goes right out the window.

[HowAboutThat]

I have noticed in all aspects of my professional life that the farther people get up the food chain, the more arrogant they get. They seem to think

1)they are successful

2)what they are doing is not just the best way to be successful, but the only way to be successful.

what Tampa is doing is what any reasonable people should think is the best thing to do.
It takes skill to do all of those things(after all drafting wisely is not child’s play) but trading guys at peak value is a no brainer, yet not just the Orioles don’t but almost nobody does it.

The OP mentioned that Kevin cash would almost invariably pull guys before they were done rather than after they were done, and with the Orioles I was constantly complaining that our boss did exactly the opposite and was constantly leaving guys in too long where they would get blasted, and they did, and then he would do it again the next night. I think that shows a reluctance to evolve.

So the people in charge of the plan have to be willing to admit they don’t necessarily have all the answers or all the best methods. In a way, Mike is just getting the team back to zero, and only then can he truly enact his personal philosophy.

Frobby correctly pointed out that if everybody starts trading guys at peak, the return would be smaller, but if you have a good pipeline, that will be less urgent, plus you have the advantage of the new guys, whoever they are will be less expensive.

 

Edited January 30, 2022 by Philip

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

I have noticed in all aspects of my professional life that the farther people get up the food chain, the more arrogant they get. They seem to think

1)they are successful

2)what they are doing is not just the best way to be successful, but the only way to be successful.

what Tampa is doing is what any reasonable people should think is the best thing to do.
It takes skill to do all of those things(after all drafting wisely is not child’s play) but trading guys at peak value is a no brainer, yet not just the Orioles don’t but almost nobody does it.

The OP mentioned that Kevin cash would almost invariably pull guys before they were done rather than after they were done, and with the Orioles I was constantly complaining that our boss did exactly the opposite and was constantly leaving guys in too long where they would get blasted, and they did, and then he would do it again the next night. I think that shows a reluctance to evolve.

So the people in charge of the plan have to be willing to admit they don’t necessarily have all the answers or all the best methods. In a way, Mike is just getting the team back to zero, and only then can he truly enact his personal philosophy.

Frobby correctly pointed out that if everybody starts trading guys at peak, the return would be smaller, but if you have a good pipeline, that will be less urgent, plus you have the advantage of the new guys, whoever they are will be less expensive.

 

Part of the trading guys at their peak strategy rests on a team’s confidence in its ability to evaluate prospects and players.   If you have a really good handle on your own team’s prospects and when they will be able to contribute, and some degree of confidence that you can pick the right young guys to trade for, then it’s easier to trade a known quantity.   I think the following epitomizes Tampa:

1.  Trades former no. 2 overall pick Delmon Young and others for Matt Garza and others.  Garza throws 592 innings for Tampa in three years at 109 ERA+.

2.  Trades Garza and others for Chris Archer and others.  Extends Archer while he’s young and he throws 1063 innings for them at ages 23-28 to an ERA+ of 108.

3.   Trades Archer for Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow.   Glasnow so far has a 133 ERA+ in 261 innings (he’s out having TJ surgery now); Meadows has 1525 PA at 124 OPS+.

Just a great job by Tampa picking the right guys to acquire.   

 

[Aristotelian]

On 1/29/2022 at 12:14 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Did you know that.

1. You can do this.
2. That it makes lists easier to read
3. It keeps some of your bullets from having ) instead of .

As I've said before if Elias tries to copy any other plan for success he's going to fail.  He need to be proactive.  You aren't going to beat the Rays by copying them.

Then again ignoring them would be ignorant. I have no problem with the O's doing their own thing but Tampa has proven they can win consistently in the AL East without spending a lot. It would be foolish not to figure out what they are doing and take anything that's applicable. Now, I would not be taking Grayson out after 3 innings just because Tampa does it, but if using Wells as an opener provides more value than as a closer I am all for that. If we have more money than Tampa that is a competitive advantage we should use but we don't have as much as Boston or NYY and never will.

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Part of the trading guys at their peak strategy rests on a team’s confidence in its ability to evaluate prospects and players.   If you have a really good handle on your own team’s prospects and when they will be able to contribute, and some degree of confidence that you can pick the right young guys to trade for, then it’s easier to trade a known quantity.   I think the following epitomizes Tampa:

1.  Trades former no. 2 overall pick Delmon Young and others for Matt Garza and others.  Garza throws 592 innings for Tampa in three years at 109 ERA+.

2.  Trades Garza and others for Chris Archer and others.  Extends Archer while he’s young and he throws 1063 innings for them at ages 23-28 to an ERA+ of 108.

3.   Trades Archer for Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow.   Glasnow so far has a 133 ERA+ in 261 innings (he’s out having TJ surgery now); Meadows has 1525 PA at 124 OPS+.

Just a great job by Tampa picking the right guys to acquire.   

 

You forgot to add Shane Baz to that Archer deal.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

You forgot to add Shane Baz to that Archer deal.

I didn’t even know Baz was the PTBNL in that deal.  What a highway robbery!