Fangraphs 2022 Top 100 Prospect List

[Can_of_corn]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-100-prospects/

#1 Adley Rutschman

#3 Grayson Rodriguez

#27 D.L. Hall

#40 Colton Cowser

#66 Gunnar Henderson

#69 Coby Mayo

 

I think we can agree this is the best list!

[LookinUp]

Holy cow. That's bullish compared to every other national list for sure. I'm almost surprised Westburg isn't in there considering how much benefit of the doubt they seem to be giving everyone else.

[waroriole]

Giving Hall a 55 FV. They must really believe he’s gonna stick as a SP. Very bold given the injury concerns. Our 50 FV guys just seemed to be ranked higher than other teams. 

[Sports Guy]

Well, they clearly love our system more than anyone.  Lots of love for Mayo there.

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Holy cow. That's bullish compared to every other national list for sure. I'm almost surprised Westburg isn't in there considering how much benefit of the doubt they seem to be giving everyone else.

Bullish indeed.

I'm not sure which ranking is most surprising but I'll go with Grayson ranking above Julio Rodriguez.

[Moose Milligan]

Wow, looks like the word got out about Coby Mayo. 
 

He might be the player I’m most excited about on this list. 

[Just Regular]

It is still grayed out at 10am, but I had a feeling they were going to rank Grayson aggressively as part of their prospects week is a David Laurila "Conversation with Grayson Rodriguez" scheduled to publish sometime today.

[Just Regular]

Without reading the write-ups yet, Mayo's 2021 data is kind of an interesting intersection of what can you take from 125 Delmarva plate appearances when some of them include stellar Exit Velocity outcomes.

It doesn't take a high number of EV "X" occurrences to have signature significance, same as a pitcher touching 101, etc. on their fastball.

I hope our PT's have Mayo heavy on the core fitness type things - the Judge/Stanton guys at the limit of human physicality have certainly cost themselves some plate appearances over the years.

I don't know if Fangraphs does their grade adjustments and implied $$$ values until all 30 systems get done; with these bullish rankings, it'll be interesting to see if BAL can open up some space between other top systems by their accounting.

[Frobby]

The interesting add here is the distribution chart at the end of each player summary (click where it says “expand”), which gives percentage chance of being a bust, a 40/45 guy, etc. up to 70+.    Here’s what they have for our six guys:

Rutschman: 30% 70+, 20% 65/70, 20% 50/55, 17.5% 40/45, 12.5% bust

Rodriguez: 20%, 25%, 25%, 15%, 15%

Hall: 7.5%, 15%, 25%, 27.5%, 25%

Cowser: 5%, 15%, 25%, 20%, 35%

Henderson: 10%, 12.5%, 15%, 17.5%, 45%

Mayo: 7.5%, 10%, 22.5%, 20%, 40%

It’s interesting and a little humbling to see how high the bust rates are even for guys ranked in the 40-69 range.   And if you add all this up cumulatively to see what we’d expect collectively from these six players, you get:

.80 70+
.975 60/65

1.325 50/55

1.175 40/45

1.725 bust

Odds are, not all these guys will pan out, despite their top 100 status.

 

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

 

I don't know if Fangraphs does their grade adjustments and implied $$$ values until all 30 systems get done; with these bullish rankings, it'll be interesting to see if BAL can open up some space between other top systems by their accounting.

I’ve been tracking these as Fangraphs has been publishing them.   So far, 13 teams are graded, with only Pittsburgh anywhere close to us.   We’re at $322 mm, PIT at $294 mm, then it drops all the way to Arizona at $229.5 mm.  Very good systems like Tampa, Miami and Seattle are yet to come.   I doubt any of them surpass us, but some will be close I’d guess.   

$322 mm isn’t really that high a number.   In 2020 Fangraphs had the Padres at $378.5 mm, the Rays at $329 mm and the Dodgers at $326.5 mm.   Last year they had the Rays at a whopping $558 mm, Detroit at $360 mm, Miami at $330 mm.   So, we may rank the highest this year, but it’s not a historically great system or anything, by Fangraphs’ methodology.   
 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve been tracking these as Fangraphs has been publishing them.   So far, 13 teams are graded, with only Pittsburgh anywhere close to us.   We’re at $322 mm, PIT at $294 mm, then it drops all the way to Arizona at $229.5 mm.  Very good systems like Tampa, Miami and Seattle are yet to come.   I doubt any of them surpass us, but some will be close I’d guess.   

$322 mm isn’t really that high a number.   In 2020 Fangraphs had the Padres at $378.5 mm, the Rays at $329 mm and the Dodgers at $326.5 mm.   Last year they had the Rays at a whopping $558 mm, Detroit at $360 mm, Miami at $330 mm.   So, we may rank the highest this year, but it’s not a historically great system or anything, by Fangraphs’ methodology.   
 

Seems like they think it is a bit of a down year in general for prospects.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Seems like they think it is a bit of a down year in general for prospects.

Last year there were 49 prospects they ranked 55 or higher, whereas this year there are only 32.   We are fortunate to have three of them.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

 

[Just Regular]

Grayson interview is up:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-conversation-with-baltimore-orioles-prospect-grayson-rodriguez/

Who knew spin rate doesn't really matter anymore?   I guess clock orientation has been pinpointed as the bigger thing.

98.5 > 95.7, though I wonder how much of that AVG was the 70 pitches/turn shackles of 2021.

Him or Bradish for the Norfolk opener?

 

[Can_of_corn]

He gives a great interview and seems really well informed.