What is Elias' plan to contend and what should it be?

[LookinUp]

In the spirit of another thread taken astray by this discussion, and because Tony suggested it and I think it's an interesting topic, what actually is Elias' plan for the O's to be contenders?

I see A LOT of minor leaguers, and a few major leaguers, that have already arrived and/or seem to be on the cusp. From the position side, those that are here or nearly here includes (5) guys: AR, Mountcastle, Mullins, Hays, and Stowers. The on the cusp really is targeting late this year or next for Westburg, Ortiz, Henderson, Cowser and Norby with Kjerstad a major wild card. That's 10-11 position guys who all have the potential to be really significant contributors with this year's #1 pick figuring to be 2+ years away. You could argue Vavra belongs on that list too.

On the pitching side, it's pretty darn bare. Means, Rodriguez and Hall profile as good to great starters. Then you have the others that we really haven't seen enough of. Tyler Wells is here, Rom, Bradish, Lowther, Kremer, Akin, Baumann, Wells, some guys I forget and some bullpen arms that have a chance to be decent.

Is Elias trying to time this for 2023, which would likely result in a fair amount of promotions to Baltimore this year and other churn in the form of trades free agents to make a competitive roster? Is he just going to let this be an in house rebuild? That would mean at least 2024 or 2025 allowing for time for our guys to mature.

It's just not clear to me what the plan is. I think that stinks. We got worked up over the Correa rumor because that meant a switch was being turned on. If that's not happening, when is it supposed to happen? 

At some point even the most patient fans, like me, need to see the go for it switch to be hit. I love the minors, but this is getting old.

[Moose Milligan]

I think the plan is glaringly obvious.  Graduate as many of these young players to the majors and see who sticks.  Fill in the rest accordingly.

I'm sure SG will be in here shortly to bemoan that strategy and that "OMGGGG THEY'VE BEEN LYING TO YOU FOR YEARS ABOUT NEEDING TO BE BAD IN ORDER TO BUILD CORRECTLY BLARRRRRRGGHHH" and "UGH THEY CAN STILL GET GOOD FREE AGENTS IN HERE AND PUT A WATCHABLE PRODUCT ON THE FIELD!!!!!*" but at this point it is what it is.  

I would suspect that Elias isn't trying to time this for any one particular season.  I sincerely doubt he's twiddling his thumbs and focusing on 2023 as some sort of magic year where things coalesce with young players and this team is suddenly looking good.  There are simply too many variables from year to year to plan for something like that. 

I mean, God forbid something like Adley blowing out an ACL this year and G-Rod needing Tommy John in September happens...well, what then?  Does whatever plan he had for 2023 get sidelined because two main pieces are on the shelf for a better part of a year?  I would hope not.  There's still a lot of guys that can come up and contribute and get this team winning.

I think the plan is clear and anyone who allowed themselves to get worked up over the Correa rumor should know better by now.  I mean, seriously, c'mon.   You can't get mad at water for being wet, yet some love to still get mad at this team for things that they should know better by now. 

While I've certainly ranted and raved on here for years, I've taken a more buddhist like approach to this organization; watching this team, following this team is absolute purgatory and anything positive is a pleasant surprise.   

*SG. before you get all butthurt, I actually AGREE with your premise, I just don't care that much to hammer everyone over the head with it at every given turn.  

[John Gibson]

I think it's quite simple - look at Houston to understand the plan.

They didn't waste any resources trying to be competitive while they built up the organizations talent level.  They had multiple 100+ loss seasons in a row until some of the young talent arrived and started producing - instead of 100+ losses they got to 70 wins and then started ramping up payroll a bit plugging holes until they were an 80+ win team.  They then exploded the payroll going from 30th to 18th, won the WS and have been willing to spend (consistently in top ten of payroll) since as they've been perennially competitive.

Will the plan work in the AL East and will Elias be allowed to spend when the time is right are open questions but I'm not sure how anyone can look at the Orioles today and not see a franchise trying to implement the Houston plan.

[Sports Guy]

59 minutes ago, John Gibson said:

I think it's quite simple - look at Houston to understand the plan.

They didn't waste any resources trying to be competitive while they built up the organizations talent level.  They had multiple 100+ loss seasons in a row until some of the young talent arrived and started producing - instead of 100+ losses they got to 70 wins and then started ramping up payroll a bit plugging holes until they were an 80+ win team.  They then exploded the payroll going from 30th to 18th, won the WS and have been willing to spend (consistently in top ten of payroll) since as they've been perennially competitive.

Will the plan work in the AL East and will Elias be allowed to spend when the time is right are open questions but I'm not sure how anyone can look at the Orioles today and not see a franchise trying to implement the Houston plan.

How many players did Houston develop that were on the WS winner?

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, John Gibson said:

I think it's quite simple - look at Houston to understand the plan.

They didn't waste any resources trying to be competitive while they built up the organizations talent level.  They had multiple 100+ loss seasons in a row until some of the young talent arrived and started producing - instead of 100+ losses they got to 70 wins and then started ramping up payroll a bit plugging holes until they were an 80+ win team.  They then exploded the payroll going from 30th to 18th, won the WS and have been willing to spend (consistently in top ten of payroll) since as they've been perennially competitive.

Will the plan work in the AL East and will Elias be allowed to spend when the time is right are open questions but I'm not sure how anyone can look at the Orioles today and not see a franchise trying to implement the Houston plan.

Twelve teams make the playoffs.  They are reducing divisional play.

Can we please stop with the AL East whining?

 

[John Gibson]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

How many players did Houston develop they were on the WS winner?

Looking at WS roster looks like 

6 draftees and 2 Intl signings
9 trades - 4 of which where when they were still losing 100 games a year with the lowest payroll in baseball and 3 in offseason before that 2017 season or during the season - a clear sign they flipped the switch and were going for it.
5 Free Agents - 4 of which signed in the off season before the 2017 season where again, were ready to go for it
3 Waiver pickups

 

They still had the lowest payroll in baseball on opening day 2016.  The opening day payroll in 2017 had increased by 67% and then the further increased it with trades like Verlander.  Once they were ready to go for it, they spent the money to go for it.

Edited March 15, 2022 by John Gibson

[oriole]

There’s two ways to answer this question. What do I think should happen and what do I think will happen?

They should be aiming for 2023 and make an attempt at competitive baseball next off season through free agency, trades, and bringing the prospects up. Maybe 2023 wouldn’t be a playoff appearance but it’s good to have a goal. Just my opinion, but they should be in on Correa because there’s no decent free agent short stops in the near future other than Trea Turner. They should be bringing these prospects up into a culture of actually trying to win instead of straight tanking. Guys like Adley and Rodriguez are going to be debuting with no expectations of delivering actual wins. Maybe it’s semantics in the end but I think it’s a poor attitude.

 

I think they’ll kick the can down the road a few more years. I expect tanking this year, 2023, and possibly 2024. I don’t think they’re in any rush to win and we may be finding ourselves fans of a perpetually rebuilding ball club who would rather decide on game 1 that they’d rather lose as many games as possible than actually try. There are no signs from the front office that the end of the rebuild is near. Maybe in the later half of the Rutschman era will they feign an attempt with some Cobb-like contracts and shrug while feasting on the gas fumes of good Orioles history. 
 

Im painting an ugly picture, I know, but Elias has me pessimistic. The real direction is likely somewhere in between my “should” and “will”. 

[Sports Guy]

28 minutes ago, John Gibson said:

Looking at WS roster looks like 

6 draftees and 2 Intl signings
9 trades - 4 of which where when they were still losing 100 games a year with the lowest payroll in baseball and 3 in offseason before that 2017 season or during the season - a clear sign they flipped the switch and were going for it.
5 Free Agents - 4 of which signed in the off season before the 2017 season where again, were ready to go for it
3 Waiver pickups

 

They still had the lowest payroll in baseball on opening day 2016.  The opening day payroll in 2017 had increased by 67% and then the further increased it with trades like Verlander.  Once they were ready to go for it, they spent the money to go for it.

So, they developed 8 players on that roster.  

I believe the Cubs number was 6.

The Os have a lot more guys to get.  Lots of moves need to be made.  When do those get done?  When do they start to care?

At what point does Elias start trading prospects for MLers as opposed to the other way around?  At what point does he bring in difference making talent that isn’t from the draft?  
 

The OP is spot on.  What exactly is the plan?  I mean, we all know that we can look and see that they, smartly, value hitting in the draft.  And we can see that they are building that pipeline of talent.  You hope to get 6-10 guys at most…realistically.  And you hope you form your real core (ie the best players for the most part on your team) from what you have.

But you need to spend and you need to make trades.  What are we waiting for?  

[interloper]

He's already told us: establish elite talent pipeline, spend appropriately when it's time, acquire good ML talent from trades. The LF wall is part of an effort to actually be able to finally maybe attract a decent pitcher in free agency, something that has almost never happened in Camden Yards history. 

To me it's not that hard to see what the plan is, mostly because he told it to our face when he was hired, and everything he said he would do so far he's done. 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

He's already told us: establish elite talent pipeline, spend appropriately when it's time, acquire good ML talent from trades. The LF wall is part of an effort to actually be able to finally maybe attract a decent pitcher in free agency, something that has almost never happened in Camden Yards history. 

To me it's not that hard to see what the plan is, mostly because he told it to our face when he was hired, and everything he said he would do so far he's done. 

Exactly.  I'm wondering what the mystery is.

[Moose Milligan]

15 minutes ago, interloper said:

He's already told us: establish elite talent pipeline, spend appropriately when it's time, acquire good ML talent from trades. The LF wall is part of an effort to actually be able to finally maybe attract a decent pitcher in free agency, something that has almost never happened in Camden Yards history. 

To me it's not that hard to see what the plan is, mostly because he told it to our face when he was hired, and everything he said he would do so far he's done. 

That's too simple.  Sheesh.  

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So, they developed 8 players on that roster.  

I believe the Cubs number was 6.

The Os have a lot more guys to get.  Lots of moves need to be made.  When do those get done?  When do they start to care?

At what point does Elias start trading prospects for MLers as opposed to the other way around?  At what point does he bring in difference making talent that isn’t from the draft?  
 

The OP is spot on.  What exactly is the plan?  I mean, we all know that we can look and see that they, smartly, value hitting in the draft.  And we can see that they are building that pipeline of talent.  You hope to get 6-10 guys at most…realistically.  And you hope you form your real core (ie the best players for the most part on your team) from what you have.

But you need to spend and you need to make trades.  What are we waiting for?  

An adequate inventory?

I think you start trading guys when you have other good solutions in your system.   And we are certainly getting close to that in some areas.   

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

An adequate inventory?

I think you start trading guys when you have other good solutions in your system.   And we are certainly getting close to that in some areas.   

They are arguably the best farm system in baseball and are arguably still top 10 of you take away the top 2 and they are about to have the first pick and a huge draft pool.

The inventory is adequate.  This is a cop out.

Teams with far less are making trades and getting real talent.  See Atlanta as the most recent example.

[now]

Inventory is there, but knowing how it will all sort out as they move up the ladder is still a big unknown (especially with pitchers, as the recent trials and errors have amply demonstrated). I think we're close but still gathering needed data (i.e., projectable results).

[John Gibson]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

So, they developed 8 players on that roster.  

I believe the Cubs number was 6.

The Os have a lot more guys to get.  Lots of moves need to be made.  When do those get done?  When do they start to care?

At what point does Elias start trading prospects for MLers as opposed to the other way around?  At what point does he bring in difference making talent that isn’t from the draft?  
 

The OP is spot on.  What exactly is the plan?  I mean, we all know that we can look and see that they, smartly, value hitting in the draft.  And we can see that they are building that pipeline of talent.  You hope to get 6-10 guys at most…realistically.  And you hope you form your real core (ie the best players for the most part on your team) from what you have.

But you need to spend and you need to make trades.  What are we waiting for?  

You are presenting an alternative approach that may or may not be better than then the approach that the Astros took and that it looks to me that the Orioles are following.  I see the Orioles as being in a similar position in the timeline to where Houston was when they lost 111 games.  Going into the next season they didn't get aggressive in the trade market, they didn't sign a bunch of free agents.  They went into the season with a bunch of young guys with little to no track record, let them play and see what they had.  Guys started to develop and they got to 70 wins.  

The more relevant number to what you are advocating is the number of players they added between their 111 loss and 70 win seasons that ended up contributing to their World Series win and the answer as far as I can tell is zero.  

We know with hindsight that the Astros lack of spending wasn't because their ownership was cheap.  It was a deliberate plan.  And if we assume the Orioles are following a similar plan it's premature to be adding a bunch of salary at this point.  The only problem with the Orioles is that we don't know that ownership will be willing to spend like Houston ownership has been when the time is right.

Edited March 15, 2022 by John Gibson