Joey Ortiz 2022

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, forphase1 said:

That 1964 team had Brooks and Boog who combined for almost 70 home runs and 220 RBI, with a 1.005 OPS for Boog and a .889 OPS for Brooks.  Our leader this year was Adley with a .806 OPS.  So yeah, that 1964 team had some bats who were able to carry the team, unlike this last year.  

Also, in 1964, the average runs per game was 4.04.  In 2021 it was 4.53 (I couldn't find complete numbers for 2022 for some reason).  Point being the offense output was up 1/2 a run per game too, which increases the need to score more yourself.  

In 2022 we scored 674 runs and allowed 688.  I think our defense can improve a bit at 2nd as Odor turned an OK double play, but wasn't great with the glove.  Otherwise I'm not sure we can save many more runs from a defense standpoint.  Sure, the pitching can get better.  But we were 20th in runs scored per game, at 4.16 a game.  We need to improve the lineup, and SS is an obvious place we can do so, and it just makes sense as long as the defense drop isn't much.  Our lineup just doesn't have much real top end strength at this point to carry so many bad at bats.  JMO.

There was a reason why I cited to OPS+ and standing in the league on runs scored when referring to the ‘64 team, because that takes the offensive environment of the time out of it.  And while Boog and Brooks were certainly better hitters than anyone on the 2022 Orioles that year, the fact is that the team OPS+ was worse than the current O’s.   Their worst regular, Jerry Adair, was worse (73 OPS+) than Mateo.  So my point is even a weak hitting team can carry some very weak bats if the defense is good enough.  The offensive players on that team were worth 26.2 rWAR, compared to 22.0 rWAR this year, despite being worse offensively. 

My point is simply this - the idea in baseball is to outscore the other team. If Shortstop A is 20 runs above average offensively and 10 runs below average defensively, while Shortstop B is 10 runs below average offensively and 20 runs above average defensively, I am neutral between the two no matter what the rest of the team is doing.   Now, if you want to tell me that a .645 OPS SS might cost Team A 15 runs offensively, but will cost Team B 25 runs offensively, or that a defensive whiz SS might save Team A more runs than Team B, I will listen, but you’ll have to explain why in some detail

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, forphase1 said:

The only problem with relying on the baserunning to push Mateo over the top is he has to get on base for that speed to do any good.  When your OBP is only .267, does it really matter if you are the best basestealer in the game?  Sure, it's a nice feather in the cap, and on the few occasions when you DO happen to get on you can cause some damage.  But for his baserunning to really be impactful enough to give him the nod over a much better bat, that OBP needs to be closer to the .300 mark.  

Per BB-ref, Mateo’s baserunning was worth about 5 runs.  That’s not nothing, but it’s not huge.

[IPlayGM]

A positive OBP is slump proof. The problem with the Mountcastles and Mateos and Hays of the world is that they are completely dependent on the hit tool to get on base. When they slump, it is amplified because of their hitting philosophy, which at this point in their careers I don’t see changing much. So for me it is much more about cycling in TYPES of hitters, ones that can get on base even if their hit tool is struggling.  Give me Abreu over Mountcastle, Westburg over Odor and Ortiz over Mateo. The OBP difference in those 3 scenarios seems to be pretty significant, although I attest I did not look it up prior to posting.

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, IPlayGM said:

A positive OBP is slump proof. The problem with the Mountcastles and Mateos and Hays of the world is that they are completely dependent on the hit tool to get on base. When they slump, it is amplified because of their hitting philosophy, which at this point in their careers I don’t see changing much. So for me it is much more about cycling in TYPES of hitters, ones that can get on base even if their hit tool is struggling.  Give me Abreu over Mountcastle, Westburg over Odor and Ortiz over Mateo. The OBP difference in those 3 scenarios seems to be pretty significant, although I attest I did not look it up prior to posting.

It isn't tho.  Would you say Altuve (387 OBP) wasn't slumping when he had his 0-25 streak in the playoffs?

 

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It isn't tho.  Would you say Altuve (387 OBP) wasn't slumping when he had his 0-25 streak in the playoffs?

 

Slump-proof is an exaggeration, so you’re right.   In general, a high OBP guy usually can still contribute some with walks when he’s slumping, and probably has shorter, less frequent slumps than a low OBP guy, though I haven’t seen data on that.  

[Tony-OH]

On 10/23/2022 at 7:07 AM, IPlayGM said:

A positive OBP is slump proof. The problem with the Mountcastles and Mateos and Hays of the world is that they are completely dependent on the hit tool to get on base. When they slump, it is amplified because of their hitting philosophy, which at this point in their careers I don’t see changing much. So for me it is much more about cycling in TYPES of hitters, ones that can get on base even if their hit tool is struggling.  Give me Abreu over Mountcastle, Westburg over Odor and Ortiz over Mateo. The OBP difference in those 3 scenarios seems to be pretty significant, although I attest I did not look it up prior to posting.

I wouldn't say slump proof, but I will say high OBP players tend to make contributions more often than low OBP players. I've seen Adley take an 0-for-3 but have two walks and that helps the team vs the 0-for-5 we'll see Mountcastle or Mateo take way too often because they just don't have that skill.

Back to Ortiz though, I'd like to see Mateo dealt this offseason to free up the spot and I'd honestly give Ortiz a shot at SS in spring training while also playing Gunnar there. While I think ultimately Gunnar will be at 3B, I do think he could handle SS next year so we have a fall back with Urias returning to 3B if Ortiz is not ready.

Honestly, I'd play Ortiz at SS and 2B to compete against Westburg and see how the chips fall in the spring.

I'd have zero issues with the Orioles starting a rookie SS-2B combo next year in Ortiz and Westburg although I tend to think Westburg will be used as trade bait. 

 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I wouldn't say slump proof, but I will say high OBP players tend to make contributions more often than low OBP players. I've seen Adley take an 0-for-3 but have two walks and that helps the team vs the 0-for-5 we'll see Mountcastle or Mateo take way too often because they just don't have that skill.

Back to Ortiz though, I'd like to see Mateo dealt this offseason to free up the spot and I'd honestly give Ortiz a shot at SS in spring training while also playing Gunnar there. While I think ultimately Gunnar will be at 3B, I do think he could handle SS next year so we have a fall back with Urias returning to 3B if Ortiz is not ready.

Honestly, I'd play Ortiz at SS and 2B to compete against Westburg and see how the chips fall in the spring.

I'd have zero issues with the Orioles starting a rookie SS-2B combo next year in Ortiz and Westburg although I tend to think Westburg will be used as trade bait. 

 

What's the hurry on promoting Ortiz?   You have Gunnar, Mateo, Westburg and Urias.   Ortiz  has just had 104 at bats at AAA.   

I really don't see why Ortiz, Cowser, Norby and DL Hall have to be in the majors on opening day.  Let them play at AAA.  See how they do and promote them as needed or  make a trade in July.  

One of the problems with the O's has been they have a big drop off when one of the starters gets hurt.  So they bring up a AAAA player or they play the starter hurt which leads to poor production.

Stack up some talent at AAA.   Use it when the team needs it.  The team results will probably improve.  Generate some deep depth.

[Jagwar]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I'd have zero issues with the Orioles starting a rookie SS-2B combo next year in Ortiz and Westburg although I tend to think Westburg will be used as trade bait. 

 

Technically, with Gunnar's eligibility, that would be a rookie 3B-SS-2B combo. 

In that scenario, what do you think Elias does with Urias? Make him the utility infielder or trade him?

[Jagwar]

Just now, wildcard said:

What's the hurry on promoting Ortiz?   You have Gunnar, Mateo, Westburg and Urias.   Ortiz  has just had 104 at bats at AAA.   

I really don't see why Ortiz, Cowser, Norby and DL Hall have to be in the majors on opening day.  Let them play at AAA.  See how they do and promote them as needed or  make a trade in July.  

One of the problems with the O's has been they have a big drop off when one of the starters gets hurt.  So they bring up a AAAA player or they play the starter hurt which leads to poor production.

Stack up some talent at AAA.   Use it when the team needs it.  The team results will probably improve.  Generate some deep depth.

I am still skeptical about Ortiz. He had a monster second half at the plate but a turd of a first half. I would love to plug a solid-hitting SS with premium defense in the lineup. But the risk is that he will struggle at the plate and the O's might not have a plan B. 

[Brooks The Great]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I wouldn't say slump proof, but I will say high OBP players tend to make contributions more often than low OBP players. I've seen Adley take an 0-for-3 but have two walks and that helps the team vs the 0-for-5 we'll see Mountcastle or Mateo take way too often because they just don't have that skill.

Back to Ortiz though, I'd like to see Mateo dealt this offseason to free up the spot and I'd honestly give Ortiz a shot at SS in spring training while also playing Gunnar there. While I think ultimately Gunnar will be at 3B, I do think he could handle SS next year so we have a fall back with Urias returning to 3B if Ortiz is not ready.

Honestly, I'd play Ortiz at SS and 2B to compete against Westburg and see how the chips fall in the spring.

I'd have zero issues with the Orioles starting a rookie SS-2B combo next year in Ortiz and Westburg although I tend to think Westburg will be used as trade bait. 

 

I agree on Mateo and Ortiz - I hope Mateo is dealt this offseason. Wouldn't even want a lot in return, we need to free up SS to see what we have in our multiple IF prospects (even including Prieto, who will need to be traded if he's ever going to play regularly in the majors).

I don't think Westburg will be trade bait, though. I think Norby is more likely to be traded, although I'd like to see the O's make room for both Westburg and Norby by putting Westburg at 1B if the O's can trade Mountcastle at some point.

Westburg profiles as another leader on the team, and he has more positional versatility than Norby does. Westburg also shares the patience/power makeup that the other young players - Adley, Gunnar, Cowser - who will be in Baltimore long-term have. Those guys will certainly form the future core of the lineup, and Westburg fits that superior hitting approach more so than veteran holdover hackers like Mateo, Mountcastle, and Hays do. 

We should build around the young hitters who will be making opposing pitchers work, and Westburg should be one of those guys.

[Tony-OH]

41 minutes ago, wildcard said:

What's the hurry on promoting Ortiz?   You have Gunnar, Mateo, Westburg and Urias.   Ortiz  has just had 104 at bats at AAA.   

I really don't see why Ortiz, Cowser, Norby and DL Hall have to be in the majors on opening day.  Let them play at AAA.  See how they do and promote them as needed or  make a trade in July.  

One of the problems with the O's has been they have a big drop off when one of the starters gets hurt.  So they bring up a AAAA player or they play the starter hurt which leads to poor production.

Stack up some talent at AAA.   Use it when the team needs it.  The team results will probably improve.  Generate some deep depth.

If he's ready, he's ready. He'll be playing 24 years old next year, if he plays well in the spring then I see no reason to keep him in AAA. 

If he wins the SS job, the team still has Henderson or even Westburg to move there if he's injured.

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

What's the hurry on promoting Ortiz?   You have Gunnar, Mateo, Westburg and Urias.   Ortiz  has just had 104 at bats at AAA.   

I really don't see why Ortiz, Cowser, Norby and DL Hall have to be in the majors on opening day.  Let them play at AAA.  See how they do and promote them as needed or  make a trade in July.  

One of the problems with the O's has been they have a big drop off when one of the starters gets hurt.  So they bring up a AAAA player or they play the starter hurt which leads to poor production.

Stack up some talent at AAA.   Use it when the team needs it.  The team results will probably improve.  Generate some deep depth.

My response would be from a few angles:

1. Maximizing org value by trading from the top of the deck (Mateo/Urias, 1 OF) can be done while still fielding a playoff caliber team in 2023.

2. The bar (Urias/Mateo) to improve the 2022 season stats for 2B/SS/3B/LF is pretty low.  The simple answer is that the young guys are better than the current starters both for 2023 and beyond.  The only spot that might take a half step back defensively is SS with Ortiz.  But I'm confident he'll be much better offensively (especially from a team/OBP/ISO perspective).

3. I agree with the historic depth issue that they would bring up AAAA types to fill gaps.  But that's because recently we haven't had legit back-up talent on the MLB roster (i.e. low payroll).  We didn't spend on starters, why would we spend on back-ups?  Plus MiLB talent (especially at the top of the hopper) was pretty bad too for various reasons.  That has been changing and now we're seeing the fruit.  But some of those voids at the ML level will be current starters playing back-up/utility roles as the bar/talent level rises as our prospects are given honest opportunities to compete for starting jobs.  And (as Tony said) there are back-up options built in with a few of the young guys.

4. I'm not sure there will be a complete reboot by OD-23, but that day isn't far away.  But this off-season and first half of 2023 (I think) will be a time of decision-making as we see talent really start to settle in at the highest level that reflects the tectonic shift called Analytics that's been happening under the surface in our scouting/drafting/development departments since 2019.  

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

What's the hurry on promoting Ortiz?   You have Gunnar, Mateo, Westburg and Urias.   Ortiz  has just had 104 at bats at AAA.   

If he’s ready to be better than Mateo or whoever else he’d be replacing, then there’s a hurry, if we are trying to win as many games as possible in 2023.   If he’s not ready to do that, then there’s no hurry at all.  It’s about that simple.  

Edited October 24, 2022 by Frobby

[Brooks The Great]

7 hours ago, Jagwar said:

I am still skeptical about Ortiz. He had a monster second half at the plate but a turd of a first half. I would love to plug a solid-hitting SS with premium defense in the lineup. But the risk is that he will struggle at the plate and the O's might not have a plan B. 

I'm not skeptical outside of the fact most prospects don't match their minor league production in the majors.

Ortiz was raking prior to a serious long-term injury in 2021 which ended his season prematurely. I think his first half struggles in 2022 can be attributed to coming back from that injury. I'm convinced that Ortiz is a quality hitter.

[Jagwar]

44 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

I'm not skeptical outside of the fact most prospects don't match their minor league production in the majors.

Ortiz was raking prior to a serious long-term injury in 2021 which ended his season prematurely. I think his first half struggles in 2022 can be attributed to coming back from that injury. I'm convinced that Ortiz is a quality hitter.

I agree with everything you said except for the last sentence, or at least the word "convinced". I would modify that for my own belief by saying "I'm hopeful that his second half is more representative than the first half. And it will translate into being a quality hitter at the major league level."