Bashing The O’s

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Who did the Astros extend?  Only one I can think of was Altuve when he was already eligible for arbitration.  

Bregman in 2019.

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

We already had a thread on Pederson’s tweet today.   

As to the point about TV money, it’s not like payroll is the only expense a baseball team has, so it’s kind of irrelevant what one revenue stream and one expense item are.   Back in 2018, the Orioles’ non-payroll expenses were $96.5 mm per Forbes.   

It's interesting that high-level professional soccer teams will sometimes spend as much as 80-90% of revenues on player payroll, with revenues in the same ballpark as MLB teams.  MLB teams will cry poor in the 40-50% range.  I doubt EPL teams have much leaner operations than MLB teams.  In 2018 Everton and the Orioles had almost the same revenues (about $250M), but Everton spent 83% on player payroll.  The Orioles were under 60% and shed payroll rapidly afterwards.

They don't have sprawling minor league systems, but otherwise I'd expect operating expenses to be somewhat comparable.  They have stadiums that are usually not taxpayer-funded, and they often have to pay for upkeep and maintenance.  They have large staffs of front office personnel, trainers, analysts, financial people, scouts, assistant coaches, just like baseball.  Maybe travel is a bit less on average.  

A major difference is that they usually have more open financial books so it's harder to pretend losses.  Another is promotion/relegation incentivizes teams to never tank.  They'd much rather lose money this year by adding payroll than get sent down a level and lose $100M+ in annual revenues for who knows how long.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, geschinger said:

Seeing what you have before making long commitments is not an unreasonable approach.  

The Astros went into 2014 to see what they and made no long term commitments.  They wanted to see what they had before making commitments to free-agent reinforcements 

In 2015 the Astros added approximately $35m to their 2015 payroll via free agent signings.  The added another approximately $32m to that payroll through trades.

Do you think that approach that worked so well was stupid and based on dumbass reasoning?  

I'm willing to bet that what we have in the minors right now in regards to pitching isn't enough to staff a rotation 1-5 and stock a dominant bullpen.  Just a hunch.  

Their approach worked fine...for them.  I get where you're coming from but Elias was the director of amateur scouting, not the GM.  So he was there for it, but he wasn't the brain behind it all.  

Can he replicate it?  Remains to be seen.  

Still don't see a downside in signing Ed-Rod this offseason.  Could have signed Pineda (9-8 with a 3.62 ERA 5-0 with a 1.85 ERA in his final five games last year) to the one year deal he got from the Tigers.  Could have signed Drew Smyly to the one year deal he got from the Cubs (although I'm not a giant fan of his, but he'd be better than what we have).  Boxberger.  Stroman.  Kluber.  

All deals we could have done, all would have most likely made us better in 2022.  None of those deals would have crippled this franchise for years on end had they blown up in our face.  

Agree, disagree?  

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[geschinger]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Bregman in 2019.

I can commit that I'll be right there with you bashing the Orioles if they refuse to extend a productive mid 20s player who helped them win a World Series 2 years before.  

[Aristotelian]

51 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Orioles aren’t trying to win games in 2022.  If they happen to win more games because young players came up and performed, so be it.  But they enter 2022 the same way they entered 2021. 

I would say expecting arrival of the top position player and pitching prospects in MLB is not exactly the same. Obviously they are not trying to contend but they are a step closer. It is no longer about identifying free talent, now it is about seeing whether the talent they have is capable of winning. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, geschinger said:

I can commit that I'll be right there with you bashing the Orioles if they refuse to extend a productive mid 20s player who helped them win a World Series 2 years before.  

[Can_of_corn]

The fact that a player helped to win a WS should have NOTHING to do with if you extend that player.

 

 

 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's interesting that high-level professional soccer teams will sometimes spend as much as 80-90% of revenues on player payroll, with revenues in the same ballpark as MLB teams.  MLB teams will cry poor in the 40-50% range.  I doubt EPL teams have much leaner operations than MLB teams.  They don't have sprawling minor league systems, but otherwise I'd expect operating expenses to be somewhat comparable.  They have stadiums that are usually not taxpayer-funded, and they often have to pay for upkeep and maintenance.  They have large staffs of front office personnel, trainers, analysts, financial people, scouts, assistant coaches, just like baseball.  Maybe travel is a bit less on average.  

A major difference is that they usually have more open financial books so it's harder to pretend losses.  Another is promotion/relegation incentivizes teams to never tank.  They'd much rather lose money this year by adding payroll than get sent down a level and lose $100M+ in annual revenues for who knows how long.

There’s not much transparency in major league finances.   When I calculated the non-payroll expenses of all the teams based on Forbes’ 2018 numbers, the Yankees were far above everyone else.  

Top 5:

NYY $446 mm

LAD $246 mm

BOS $185 mm

CHC $170 mm

SFG $159 mm

Bottom 5:

KCR $98.7 mm

OAK $98 mm

TBR $97 mm

CWS $97 mm

BAL $96.5 mm

Now, before you get too angry about the O’s being cheap (which of course, they were), they were one of only three teams to report an operating loss at the time, and the payroll was quite high (for them).   So, they were skimping on other things to maintain a high payroll.   

Bur, what the hell are the Yankees spending $446 mm on?

 

 

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

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I'm willing to bet that what we have in the minors right now in regards to pitching isn't enough to staff a rotation 1-5 and stock a dominant bullpen.  Just a hunch.  

Their approach worked fine...for them.  I get where you're coming from but Elias was the director of amateur scouting, not the GM.  So he was there for it, but he wasn't the brain behind it all.  

Can he replicate it?  Remains to be seen.  

Still don't see a downside in signing Ed-Rod this offseason.  Could have signed Pineda (9-8 with a 3.62 ERA 5-0 with a 1.85 ERA in his final five games last year) to the one year deal he got from the Tigers.  Could have signed Drew Smyly to the one year deal he got from the Cubs (although I'm not a giant fan of his, but he'd be better than what we have).  Boxberger.  Stroman.  Kluber.  

All deals we could have done, all would have most likely made us better in 2022.  None of those deals would have crippled this franchise for years on end had they blown up in our face.  

Agree, disagree?  

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I proposed something similar so I don't disagree, but I also am willing to give Elias a long leash and understand his logic. A second tier starter + Boxberger would have been a stretch to get us to .500 with a payroll of perhaps $50M. If the money saved (and wins sacrificed) means we can go to $90M next year instead of $75M, I am all for that. If the money is flushed down the Angelos family golden toilet, then I have a problem with that. I still think it is too early to judge Elias or the team. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

Bur, what the hell are the Yankees spending $446 mm on?

 

 

Have you seen the post-game spread for the media?

[geschinger]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The fact that a player helped to win a WS should have NOTHING to do with if you extend that player.

If that player is also in their mid 20s and productive it absolutely does.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, geschinger said:

If that player is also in their mid 20s and productive it absolutely does.  

No, that's nonsense.

If a player is in their mid 20's and productive those are reasons.

The helping win a WS stuff is ridiculous. 

[Sports Guy]

The thing is, Houston was playing their young guys before 2014.  Kuechel already had 40ish ML starts.  Cosart had 10 starts in 2013.    Lyles made 65 ML starts before they traded him to the Rockies for Fowler.  Peacock had 14 starts and appeared in 18 games in 2013.

By 2014, Altuve already had 1500 ML PA.

In 2013, the Astros had 19 players get 100 or more plate appearances.  8 were older than 25 and 2 players were 30 or older.

In 2021, the Orioles had 17 players who to 100 or more plate appearances.  14 of them were 25 or older and they also had 2 players 30 or older.

In 2013, the Astros had 10 pitchers start games, with 8 of them getting 10 or more starts.  Of those 10 starters, 2 were 30 years old or older, 6 were 25 or younger and Bud Norris was dealt to the Os midseason.

In 2021, the Orioles had 15 players start (a few were openers).  Of those 15,  2 were older than 30 and only 3 were 25 or younger.  And Lopez, who was 28, was 3rd on the team in games started and he isn't now and never has been a starter at this level.

When you look at the Astros in 2013, they weren't playing a lot of guys with no future.  Carlos Pena got over 300 at bats (and performed poorly) and Bedard threw 150 innings and performed ok.   Outside of that, the starts and most of the PA went to players that had a chance to be part of a contender or a trade piece to help them get something.

Compare that with the 2021 Orioles..You had Severino, Galvis, Franco, Wynns, Guiterrez, Martin, Valaika and Ruiz.  Thats 1700 PA to players that aren't anything for the long term.  The Os gave hundreds of IP to pitchers with no long term future here and many of them got starts.

 

Thats part of the issue with this and why you can't use an apples to apples comp to the Astros.  We are playing far too many, go no where AAAA guys and not promoting our young talent to see what they can do.

I mean, look at these arguments.  We have people saying its dumb to bring in outside help until we are ready but yet those same people are saying its dumb to bring up prospects and waste their service time when the team isn't going to be any good.

Well, WTF is the solution?  You don't want talent brought up and you don't want talent brought in.  How the f*** is this team supposed to get better with 26 Pat Valaikas out there?

 

 

 

[Aristotelian]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

No, that's nonsense.

If a player is in their mid 20's and productive those are reasons.

The helping win a WS stuff is ridiculous. 

Helping win a WS means they were productive. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Helping win a WS means they were productive. 

For a couple of weeks?

You don't sign a guy to a six year deal because of a playoff run.

Did Wildcard hack all your accounts?