Kyle Bradish 2022

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Jump to conclusions much? Claiming victory after three starts? Let's wait and see. It was a great start and he showed well. Players do develop and nobody should have "given up" on his being a starter. Just because I've said that he has some yellow flags that make him have a reliever risk doesn't mean you don't try him as a starter and see how he goes.

As good as he's been outside his meltdown inning though, go look up the movement of his fastball and his EVs so far and the fact that he's using two pitches 82.1% of the time. We all want him to succeed, but let's not start taking victory laps quite yet.

Is it unusual for starting pitchers have 2 pitches make up 82% of their pitches?  Just asking.  It wouldn't seem odd to me if a pitcher threw 50% fastballs, 30% curves, and 20% changeups.   I'm not sure what normal is but using your 3rd best or 3rd and 4th best pitches 20% sounds about right to me.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

This is fair. I'm just in a bit of a surly/defensive mood today I guess, so apologies if I'm prickly or quick to take a victory lap. 

I don't think Bradish will go without his struggles. I'm not suggesting he's going to be Justin Verlander. But I think he has a great shot of being Chris Tillman with more velocity. Or Jeremy Guthrie with better breaking stuff. I think he will get hit hard at times or lose command at times, but I don't think he will do any of that as often as, say, Jorge Lopez has in his SP career. 

That said, if he does end up a reliever, it's nice to know he had 98 in his back pocket. I don't recall seeing that in the minors, nor do I think that is the norm for him as a starter. I think the packed stadium juiced him up a bit. Which, honestly, is great to see. I don't want starters who shrink in that scenario. Tyler Wells, same type of guy. And even Zimmermann now looks like he's not afraid of anything. We'll see if it continues, but it's really encouraging seeing guys with this kind of attitude having success as Orioles starters.

I understand not everyone is comfortable busting out the confetti just yet. Totally get it. But things are looking promising so much so that you kind of forget John Means is out for the year. Let's see how long it lasts. 

Absolutely nothing wrong with enjoying Wells, Zimmermann and now Bradish' success so far. I'm not trying to be a wet blanket, but just trying to look at how these guys are having success in order to try and see if it suggests sustained success in a starter's role.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, LTO's said:

I don't think fastball movement is really that big of a deal nowadays. His fastball spin and velocity are pretty well above the MLB average.  The SSS could be the reason for his exceptional BB% but it was much lower in Norfolk this year compared to last year as well.  I will grant you that he's going to have to mix in a changeup more to be successful but this seems to be a pitch the Orioles have had success working with our pitchers on. 

Vertical movement or lack of a drop is certainly important if your fastball has almost no horizontal movement. I was actually surprised when I saw his numbers. I expected them to be similar to Bautista. 

[Lurker]

3 hours ago, interloper said:

I thought Bradish was destined to be a reliever? 

That's what all the scouts and statistics predicted.

[Lurker]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Jump to conclusions much? Claiming victory after three starts? Let's wait and see. It was a great start and he showed well. Players do develop and nobody should have "given up" on his being a starter. Just because I've said that he has some yellow flags that make him have a reliever risk doesn't mean you don't try him as a starter and see how he goes.

As good as he's been outside his meltdown inning though, go look up the movement of his fastball and his EVs so far and the fact that he's using two pitches 82.1% of the time. We all want him to succeed, but let's not start taking victory laps quite yet.

Not claiming victory, just noting the extreme ebb and flow over his prospects.

One question about the relevance of those statistics:

If you were told on Monday that Bradish would be using his fastball and slider 82.1% of the time, would you have predicted that he would throw 7 innings and have 11 k's?

If not, then the value of those statistics is more as a historical record, not an accurate predictor of future success. Nor a predictor of future pitch choice and/or development.

[Ohfan67]

9 minutes ago, Lurker said:

Not claiming victory, just noting the extreme ebb and flow over his prospects.

One question about the relevance of those statistics:

If you were told on Monday that Bradish would be using his fastball and slider 82.1% of the time, would you have predicted that he would throw 7 innings and have 11 k's?

If not, then the value of those statistics is more as a historical record, not an accurate predictor of future success. Nor a predictor of future pitch choice and/or development.

The bottom line is that the Orioles believe in Bradish enough to put him in the starting rotation. This is a forum dedicated to discussing everything and anything to do with the Orioles in incredible detail...nitpicking, hand wringing, etc., are parts of the discussion. It's just the way it works.  In the end, your opinion, Tony's opinion, my opinion, and everyone else's opinion doesn't matter. It is all about what Bradish does with his opportunity. And everyone on this board is rooting hard for him, despite how you may take some comments and critiques. Everyone enjoyed his performance last night and are rooting for about 20 more of those this year. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Lurker said:

Not claiming victory, just noting the extreme ebb and flow over his prospects.

One question about the relevance of those statistics:

If you were told on Monday that Bradish would be using his fastball and slider 82.1% of the time, would you have predicted that he would throw 7 innings and have 11 k's?

If not, then the value of those statistics is more as a historical record, not an accurate predictor of future success. Nor a predictor of future pitch choice and/or development.

 

1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

The bottom line is that the Orioles believe in Bradish enough to put him in the starting rotation. This is a forum dedicated to discussing everything and anything to do with the Orioles in incredible detail...nitpicking, hand wringing, etc., are parts of the discussion. It's just the way it works.  In the end, your opinion, Tony's opinion, my opinion, and everyone else's opinion doesn't matter. It is all about what Bradish does with his opportunity. And everyone on this board is rooting hard for him, despite how you may take some comments and critiques. Everyone enjoyed his performance last night and are rooting for about 20 more of those this year. 

I think this is one of those cases where both statements can be true.

 

[Sports Guy]

5 hours ago, Moshagge3 said:

I agree about one start not being a SSS, but what do park factors have to do with 0 BB, 11 Ks?

Actually, there have been studies in the past about how parks can effect those numbers. 
But I’m also not sure how much I buy that.

Here is one thing I quickly found:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/981/the-daily-prospectus-park-effects-on-walks/

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Lurker said:

Not claiming victory, just noting the extreme ebb and flow over his prospects.

One question about the relevance of those statistics:

If you were told on Monday that Bradish would be using his fastball and slider 82.1% of the time, would you have predicted that he would throw 7 innings and have 11 k's?

If not, then the value of those statistics is more as a historical record, not an accurate predictor of future success. Nor a predictor of future pitch choice and/or development.

The only 100% about stats are they reflect what happened in the past. This we can agree on. 

The game has changed a lot and we have a lot more tools (baseball savant) to evaluate pitchers. Every pitcher in the major leaguers has showed an ability to get high level batters out with their stuff. 

When I evaluate pitchers I look for a lot of things to include whether they are doing something different that is a cause for their sudden success. Now Bradish has been very good since about mid September. When I watched those starts I noiced he was usiing his slider more than his curve. It's obviously his best pitch at this time and was his goto pitch in his geat start yesterday.

It's quite impressive to see out of the 32 sliders he threw, he got 20 swings, 45% (9) of which were WHIFFs. Now the key will be when hitters adjust to what he's doing to them. Can they lay off the slider if they look for the pitch? It appears to tunnel well with his fastball so that's good, but if the slider is not there, can the curveball or change fill the gap?

That's what we need to see. He clearly brought his A stuff to the mound last night. Now we have to see how often he brings that to the mound and how the hitters adjust to him.

This is the only reason why I don't suggest taking victory laps (not saying you did) yet. The one thing that is abundantly clear is Bradish is a major league pitcher. There is not doubt in my mound his stuff plays in relief. I just need to see sustained success over a couple of months before I begin to be convinced he can stick as a starter long term.

Clearly we all hope he does.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Lurker said:

That's what all the scouts and statistics predicted.

In their defense, when I first saw his video's in the Angels system, he was a fastball, curveball guy and that's pretty much a reliever profile. I don't know what other scouts have said of late, but I do know that the slider and even the movement of the change (though he can't command it) adds to the profile.

It doesn't mean they were wrong, i means Bradish developed past his original profile. That's a credit to the Orioles organiation and Bradish to change his repertoire to give him more of a chance to stick as a starter.

[Hallas]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Vertical movement or lack of a drop is certainly important if your fastball has almost no horizontal movement. I was actually surprised when I saw his numbers. I expected them to be similar to Bautista. 

I've read recent analysis that says that a rising fastball is more effective than previously thought even when it lacks horizontal movement.  Do you disagree with this?

23 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The only 100% about stats are they reflect what happened in the past. This we can agree on. 

The game has changed a lot and we have a lot more tools (baseball savant) to evaluate pitchers. Every pitcher in the major leaguers has showed an ability to get high level batters out with their stuff. 

When I evaluate pitchers I look for a lot of things to include whether they are doing something different that is a cause for their sudden success. Now Bradish has been very good since about mid September. When I watched those starts I noiced he was usiing his slider more than his curve. It's obviously his best pitch at this time and was his goto pitch in his geat start yesterday.

It's quite impressive to see out of the 32 sliders he threw, he got 20 swings, 45% (9) of which were WHIFFs. Now the key will be when hitters adjust to what he's doing to them. Can they lay off the slider if they look for the pitch? It appears to tunnel well with his fastball so that's good, but if the slider is not there, can the curveball or change fill the gap?

That's what we need to see. He clearly brought his A stuff to the mound last night. Now we have to see how often he brings that to the mound and how the hitters adjust to him.

This is the only reason why I don't suggest taking victory laps (not saying you did) yet. The one thing that is abundantly clear is Bradish is a major league pitcher. There is not doubt in my mound his stuff plays in relief. I just need to see sustained success over a couple of months before I begin to be convinced he can stick as a starter long term.

Clearly we all hope he does.

 

The last start is the first time I saw him seriously, but it looked like most of his sliders were in the zone and had a good shot of being a called strikes even if the hitters kept their bats on their shoulders.  Has his command of the pitch waxed and waned in his starts or has he been able to dot the corners most of the season?

[UMDTerrapins]

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

In their defense, when I first saw his video's in the Angels system, he was a fastball, curveball guy and that's pretty much a reliever profile. I don't know what other scouts have said of late, but I do know that the slider and even the movement of the change (though he can't command it) adds to the profile.

It doesn't mean they were wrong, i means Bradish developed past his original profile. That's a credit to the Orioles organiation and Bradish to change his repertoire to give him more of a chance to stick as a starter.

Hey Tony, what are your thoughts on over-the-top pitchers generally being more durable (less prone to elbow issues, but more prone to shoulder issues)? I’ve got nothing to back that up but I’ve believed if for a long time. Reason I bring it up is that I’ve thought of Bradish as being someone who is less likely to break down and to eat up innings, which has obvious value. But I’m probably being too presumptuous/optimistic. 

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Hallas said:

I've read recent analysis that says that a rising fastball is more effective than previously thought even when it lacks horizontal movement.  Do you disagree with this?

 

The last start is the first time I saw him seriously, but it looked like most of his sliders were in the zone and had a good shot of being a called strikes even if the hitters kept their bats on their shoulders.  Has his command of the pitch waxed and waned in his starts or has he been able to dot the corners most of the season?

Yes, those typically high spin rate fastballs stay on plane longer and their verticle movement down is less. the problem with Bradish's fastball is not is it almost dead straight, it has slightly below average vertical movement according to baseball savant.

The slider is no doubt a very good pitch. Let's see how it holds up a few times through different orders to see if hitters make adjustments. If they're unable to make adjustments, it tells you the pitch is pretty special.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Hey Tony, what are your thoughts on over-the-top pitchers generally being more durable (less prone to elbow issues, but more prone to shoulder issues)? I’ve got nothing to back that up but I’ve believed if for a long time. Reason I bring it up is that I’ve thought of Bradish as being someone who is less likely to break down and to eat up innings, which has obvious value. But I’m probably being too presumptuous/optimistic. 

I'll be the first to admit I'm not a mechanics guy and I really don't follow too much on the injury fronts when it comes to mechanics. The last one I remember was the dreaded inverted W which I think was eventually proven not a big deal. So i can't help you here.

[UMDTerrapins]

25 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'll be the first to admit I'm not a mechanics guy and I really don't follow too much on the injury fronts when it comes to mechanics. The last one I remember was the dreaded inverted W which I think was eventually proven not a big deal. So i can't help you here.

Yeah, what you’ll find on the internet concludes the exact opposite of my personal observations. Probably small sample size conclusions on my part. The internet is never wrong. But seriously…I’m probably wrong.