Austin Hays 2022

[Just Regular]

Hays v. Arozarena feels to me like one of the interesting position challenges as these Orioles try to climb the division.

Ahead of Gunnar Henderson (honorable mention), Arozarena today was deemed by Fangraphs Ben Clemens 50th of MLB's Top 50 players in trade value.    Their defensive value is I feel approximately similar, but B-Ref sees Hays so much better it has them basically even at WAR/162.

Austin Hays 7.5.1995 has 1167 MLB PA and a 263/315/448 lifetime batting line for a 108 OPS+.    B-Ref see his 162 Game Avg as 3.7 WAR.    It gives Hays a 0.7 dWAR component.

Randy Arozarena 2.28.1995 has 1084 MLB PA and a 268/344/462 lifetime batting line for a 128 OPS+.    B-Ref sees his 162 Game Avg as 3.8 WAR.   It gives Arozarena a -0.7 dWAR component.

Cross-checking OAA for all years 2016-2022, it thinks Arozarena a little better, but OAA doesn't give outfielders any credit or debit for his Arm.

Main difference is Arozarena 4-3 edge in remaining years of control, and the one more at the minimum while Hays enters Arb next year.

The Arozarena write-up:

#50 — Randy Arozarena, TB, OF

Five-Year WAR	+9.4
Guaranteed Dollars	–
Team Control Through	2026
Previous Rank	#32

Year	Age	Projected WAR	Contract Status
2023	28	+2.3	Pre-Arb
2024	29	+2.1	Arb 1
2025	30	+2.0	Arb 2
2026	31	+1.7	Arb 3

 

Pre-Arb

 

 

Arb

Year three of Arozarena’s major league career looks to me like a microcosm of what you can expect from him in general. Those muscles he added during lockdown in 2020 are here to stay; he has plus power to all fields, and plus speed to go along with it. On the strength of those two tools alone, he’s been a valuable hitter since his debut.

To take advantage of that newfound power, Arozarena rebuilt his swing, and his new one comes with some swing and miss. If that’s the cost of doing business, though, it’s a worthy tradeoff; power is the currency of the realm these days, and if it takes a few strikeouts to get there, so be it. The result is that Arozarena’s on-base percentage will be extremely BABIP-dependent; when the hits aren’t falling, he’ll be a slug-over-OBP guy, which at the very least means he’ll be streaky. His speed doesn’t translate to great defense, either, which means he’s best suited for an outfield corner, and the Rays give him plenty of time at DH.

Still, he won’t hit arbitration until 2024, and he’s only 27, so a decline phase feels a ways off yet. The power alone makes Arozarena a bargain at those rates, even if he never posts plus on-base numbers. Teams might not break the bank to trade for Arozarena – but every team in baseball would love to have more cost-controlled contributors like him.

[Just Regular]

 

[RVAOsFan]

Put him on the 10 day and bring up Stowers. Did Stowers kick Elias dog or what?

[owknows]

38 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

Put him on the 10 day and bring up Stowers. Did Stowers kick Elias dog or what?

Sorry...  we're not adding any players with a batting average above .200 at this time.

 

[sportsfan8703]

Hays slump the last two months has been killing us. I wonder if he’s banged up. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Hays slump the last two months has been killing us. I wonder if he’s banged up. 

He is..he should have been IL’ed a while ago.

That said, he’s not an everyday player.  Too many injuries and not strong enough vs righties.

The Orioles are learning a lot this year, some good and some bad.  Hays is someone they are learning about.

[sportsfan8703]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He is..he should have been IL’ed a while ago.

That said, he’s not an everyday player.  Too many injuries and not strong enough vs righties.

The Orioles are learning a lot this year, some good and some bad.  Hays is someone they are learning about.

I agree. However, I think they sell high on Santander. So that means Hays sticks around. Maybe DH’ing him more will keep him fresh, but looks like we should’ve bit the bullet and put him on the IL and called up Stowers. 

[Moose Milligan]

I don't think there's going to be room for Hays moving forward.  

[clapdiddy]

19 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't think there's going to be room for Hays moving forward.  

Nope.  Too many injuries and not enough plate discipline. 

You'd like for the O's to keep the guys they develop.   I think Hays doesn't fit the Elias mold.   

[Frobby]

Hays has had a tough six weeks or so but I think people are too down on him.  We’ll see where he ends up the year.  He’s been a strong finisher in the past; we’ll see about this year.

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Nope.  Too many injuries and not enough plate discipline. 

You'd like for the O's to keep the guys they develop.   I think Hays doesn't fit the Elias mold.   

Seems like a good guy, I like him but the plate discipline is pretty bad.

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Hays has had a tough six weeks or so but I think people are too down on him.  We’ll see where he ends up the year.  He’s been a strong finisher in the past; we’ll see about this year.

Even with his hot finish last year, it feels like his .770 overall is about his ceiling. Hopefully his floor isn't much lower than his current .700. I was in the camp that was pretty down on him last year and he did prove me wrong to an extent. I still wish we had traded him at the deadline when he was sitting around 3 WAR. Not sure what the market would have been but I think we could have gotten something interesting.

[RVAOsFan]

I don't understand why he hasn't been put on the IL.  At one point he missed 6 straight days and has been in and out of the lineup since.  I would rather bring up Stowers and get Hays back healthy for the final stretch run.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hays has had a tough six weeks or so but I think people are too down on him.  We’ll see where he ends up the year.  He’s been a strong finisher in the past; we’ll see about this year.

We have a 5 year track record of him always being hurt/banged up and struggling vs righties overall.

His defense is also not as good as people think.

There is a place for him On this team getting 300-400 at bats but that’s about it.  He’s not an everyday player And it’s possible he’s not a better 4th OFer than McKenna.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

I don't understand why he hasn't been put on the IL.  At one point he missed 6 straight days and has been in and out of the lineup since.  I would rather bring up Stowers and get Hays back healthy for the final stretch run.

Should have been IL’ed at least a month ago when the wrist was an issue.