A look at the Orioles by month -- 2022

[Frobby]

In keeping with tradition.   I was tied up last weekend, so I am just getting to April now.  In a few places, month-end rankings weren't available by the time I did this, so I used rankings as of May 5 instead.   Those instances are noted.

April 2022

7-14 record

4-4 at home

3-10 on the road

3-8 vs. AL East

4-5 in one-run games

2-0 in extra innings

Batting

2.95 runs per game was last in the AL

.211 BA was 14th

.297 OBP was 9th

.307 SLG was last

.604 OPS was 14th

0.48 HR/game was last

.169/.280/.322 with RISP (218 PA, 183 AB, 31 H, 61 TOB, 59 TB) (as of 5/5, .619 OPS with RISP was 11th in the AL)

Pitching

3.76 ERA was 10th in the AL

4.19 runs allowed per game was 11th

.90 HR/game was 5th lowest

4.08 starters' ERA was 11th

4.21 IP/Start was 13th

3.46 bullpen ERA was 4th

4 saves was tied for 9th 

5 save opportunities (last as of May 5)

1 blown save (lowest as of May 5)

Defense

12 unearned runs tied for 3rd most in the AL

0.81 errors per game (17 errors) (3rd worst as of May 5)

-3.3 fangraphs defense was 11th (as of May 5)

-2.5 UZR was 11th (as of May 5)

-8 OAA was 14th (as of May 5)

+2 Rtot was 9th (as of May 5)

+6 Rdrs was 10th (as of May 5)

Conclusion

The offense was terrible in April, suffering both from a HR drought and terrible hitting with RISP.   The one saving grace was that OBP was pretty decent.   The pitching held its own, not outstanding by league standards but not awful either, and better than we have typically seen the last several years.   We were in almost every game despite many games where the offense was anemic.   The defense was sneaky bad, costing a lot of unearned runs.   A few days into May as I post this, the offense and defense are both looking better and the pitching is still hanging in there.   

 

[Frobby]

May 2022

14-16 record

8-8 at home

6-8 on the road

8-8 vs. AL East

2-3 in one-run games

2-1 in extra innings

Batting

4.27 runs per game was 6th in the AL

.244 BA was 7th

.299 OBP was 12th

.392 SLG was 8th

.691OPS was 9th

1.10 HR/game was 7th

.237/.302/.384 with RISP (268 PA, 232 AB, 55 H, 81 TOB, 89 TB) 

Pitching

4.36 ERA was 11th in the AL

4.83 runs allowed per game was 12th

1.20 HR/game was 5th highest

5.45 starters' ERA was 14th

4.73 IP/Start was last

3.16 bullpen ERA was 4th

5 saves was tied for 11th 

9 save opportunities 

4 blown saves

Defense

14 unearned runs tied for 3rd most in the AL

0.70 errors per game (21 errors) 

+4.3 fangraphs defense 

+2.9 UZR 

0 OAA 

-5 Rtot 

+8 Rdrs 

Cumulative through May

Batting

3.73 runs per game was 12th in the AL

.231 BA was 12th

.298 OBP was 10th

.358 SLG was 13th

.656 OPS was 12th

0.84 HR/game was 12th

.207/.292/.357 with RISP (486 PA, 415 AB, 86 H, 142 TOB, 148 TB) 

Pitching

4.12 ERA was 14th in the AL

4.57 runs allowed per game was 13th

1.08 HR/game was 4th highest

4.92 starters' ERA was 14th

4.52 IP/Start was 14th

3.28 bullpen ERA was 5th

9 saves was tied for 11th 

14 save opportunities was 14th

5 blown saves was tied for 4th lowest

Defense

26 unearned runs was 3rd most in the AL

0.75 errors per game (38 errors) was worst in the AL

+1.0 fangraphs defense was 10th 

-0.4 UZR was 8th (-2.1 OF, +1.7 IF)

-8 OAA was 13th (-2 OF, -6 IF)

-3 Rtot was 12th 

+14 Rdrs was tied for 7th

Conclusion

The offense went from terrible to mediocre in May, both overall and in RISP situations.   But, 6th out of 15 in runs scored per game for the month is a good result.   The starting pitching really faltered badly, but the bullpen stayed very steady and kept the team in games.    Defensively, the advanced and standard metrics are a real Rorschach test -- pick which stat you believe.   Overall, I believe the offense can sustain and even improve upon their performance if they stay pretty healthy.   The starting pitching is the big concern, both from a run prevention standpoint and an innings covered standpoint.   I'm doubtful that the bullpen can sustain its current success if they have to cover 13 outs per game all season.   

[eddie83]

BA went up substantially in May but OBP hardly budged.  Did they go from too passive to being more aggressive? Trying to hit pitches earlier in at bats? 
I do think the offense with Adley, Mountcastle and Mullins has some upside. 
 

As you mention SP is the concern.  Keeping the extra arm and shuffling the roster has helped with the lack of innings for now.  Just have to hope the SP can be competitive. I said it in a joking but serious way in the past about keeping the SP ERA under 5 would make things better. Offense is down overall in the league and the new wall helps to an extent. I’ve just seen too many previous seasons where during the summer the SP collapsed and it zapped any chances of competing on a daily basis.
 

On defense I just want to see them avoid errors on routine plays. Pitching is not good enough to overcome anything like that. 

 

[eddie83]

Orioles rank last in QS % in AL at 21%. Not a surprise with the numbers Frobby showed. 
 

Orioles are averaging 4.5 IP/S which ranks 14th overall. Yankees and Astros who are tied for 1st are at 5.5 IP/S. League average is 5.0. 
 

The team behind the Orioles is Tampa. They only average 4.4 IP/S. Their numbers are skewed though. Their top 4 SP and I included one 4 IP relief outing from Yarborough are averaging 5.2 IP/S. They are also ramping Yarborough up. Those SP have combined for 34/50 games started. Tampa also has Springs now in rotation and he has averaged 5.2 IP/S in his last 5 appearances which have all been starts. So at the end of day their current rotation is on more solid footing. Tampa used their openers strategy earlier in season. 
 

At the end of the day I think the Orioles are entering an opener phase for the #5 spot. They called up Reyes as soon as Lowther was sent down. I think they will be using this strategy for awhile. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Orioles rank last in QS % in AL at 21%. Not a surprise with the numbers Frobby showed. 
 

Orioles are averaging 4.5 IP/S which ranks 14th overall. Yankees and Astros who are tied for 1st are at 5.5 IP/S. League average is 5.0. 
 

The team behind the Orioles is Tampa. They only average 4.4 IP/S. Their numbers are skewed though. Their top 4 SP and I included one 4 IP relief outing from Yarborough are averaging 5.2 IP/S. They are also ramping Yarborough up. Those SP have combined for 34/50 games started. Tampa also has Springs now in rotation and he has averaged 5.2 IP/S in his last 5 appearances which have all been starts. So at the end of day their current rotation is on more solid footing. Tampa used their openers strategy earlier in season. 
 

At the end of the day I think the Orioles are entering an opener phase for the #5 spot. They called up Reyes as soon as Lowther was sent down. I think they will be using this strategy for awhile. 

Using an opener isn't the same as having a bullpen start.

[eddie83]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Using an opener isn't the same as having a bullpen start.

I can see a mixture being used at that spot. I have no idea who they would throw in the Number 5 slot right now and say it’s yours.  Unless they give it to Kremer 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I can see a mixture being used at that spot. I have no idea who they would throw in the Number 5 slot right now and say it’s yours.  Unless they give it to Kremer 

That isn't what I mean. 

When a team uses an opener they are basically bringing in a relief pitcher to start the game and a starting pitcher as the first reliever.  They should still be getting 5 innings or so from one pitcher.

What the Orioles are doing is just having the bullpen absorb all the innings for that start.

Using an opener is strategy, having a bullpen game is necessity.

[eddie83]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That isn't what I mean. 

When a team uses an opener they are basically bringing in a relief pitcher to start the game and a starting pitcher as the first reliever.  They should still be getting 5 innings or so from one pitcher.

What the Orioles are doing is just having the bullpen absorb all the innings for that start.

Using an opener is strategy, having a bullpen game is necessity.

Ok. I think they basically strategized the other day. They called up Lowther to be the first reliever and used Baker as the opener. Nothing stopped them from starting Lowther.  

They are basically using the Norfolk shuttle right now to fill that spot. With MLB kicking the can down the on roster rules it’s easier to do that. I thought they may keep Reyes down until Sunday and call him up. Now it’s possible he doesn’t get used the next 3 days and goes Sunday. 

 I guess it’s possible Watkins is back soon and all this is just a temporary fix. 

[SteveA]

2 hours ago, eddie83 said:

Ok. I think they basically strategized the other day. They called up Lowther to be the first reliever and used Baker as the opener. Nothing stopped them from starting Lowther.  

They are basically using the Norfolk shuttle right now to fill that spot. With MLB kicking the can down the on roster rules it’s easier to do that. I thought they may keep Reyes down until Sunday and call him up. Now it’s possible he doesn’t get used the next 3 days and goes Sunday. 

 I guess it’s possible Watkins is back soon and all this is just a temporary fix. 

Watkins isn't eligible to come back for Sunday, when we next have a vacant spot in the rotation.

And I believe I saw a comment from someone last week that he was expected to be on the IL longer than the required 15 days.

And he's not that great anyway.

So at this point, I consider him a non-factor.   Certainly not an answer to any worthwhile question.

We need to figure out what to do with this empty rotation spot and we can't keep patching it together with bullpen + Norfolk shuttle, our bullpen will pay for that down the line.   Before his injury last night, I thought we could get by a few turns in the rotation with the patchwork and he would be up soon, maybe as early as the Cub series.   Now that isn't going to happen.

[interloper]

I think the SP numbers were a bit inflated early by some uncharacteristically good Watkins starts. And of course the biggest thing has been Zimmermann coming back down to earth, and Bradish's rough couple of starts mixed in. 

[Frobby]

June 2022

14-12 record (woo hoo!)

6-5 at home

8-7 on the road

4-3 vs. AL East

4-4 in one-run games

0-2 in extra innings

Batting

4.65 runs per game was 7th in the AL

.227 BA was 12th

.295 OBP was 12th

.427 SLG was 5th

.722 OPS was 7th

1.38 HR/game was 6th

.275/.333/.492 with RISP (222 PA, 193 AB, 53 H, 74 TOB, 95 TB) 

Pitching

3.86 ERA was 6th in the AL

4.12 runs allowed per game was 6th

0.96 HR/game was tied for 3rd highest

4.59 starters' ERA was 11th

4.97 IP/Start was 12th

2.89 bullpen ERA was 2n

10 saves was tied for 2nd 

11 save opportunities 

1 blown save

Defense

10 unearned runs tied for 7th fewest in the AL

0.58 errors per game (15errors) 

+3.5 fangraphs defense 

+1.8 UZR (-0.9 OF, +2.7 IF)

+6 OAA (+1 OF, +5 IF_

-2 Rtot 

+17 Rdrs 

Cumulative through June

Batting

4.08 runs per game was 10th in the AL

.229 BA was 13th

.297 OBP was 13th

.381 SLG was 10th

.678 OPS was 11th

1.03 HR/game was 8th

.229/.307/.400 with RISP (708 PA, 608 AB, 139 H, 216 TOB, 243 TB); .707 OPS was 11th

Pitching

4.03 ERA was 11th in the AL

4.42 runs allowed per game was 12th

1.04 HR/game was 5th lowest

4.80 starters' ERA was 13th

4.67 IP/Start was 14th

3.16 bullpen ERA was 3rd

19 saves was 8th

24 save opportunities was tied for second fewest

5 blown saves was fewest in the AL

Defense

36 unearned runs was 3rd most in the AL

0.69 errors per game (53 errors) was 2nd worst in the AL

+4.5 fangraphs defense was 8th 

+1.4 UZR was 9th (-3.0 OF, +4.4 IF)

-2 OAA was 1th (-1 OF, -1 IF)

-5 Rtot was 12th 

+31 Rdrs was 5th

Conclusion

The June 2022 Orioles did a pretty good imitation of the 2012-16 Orioles, making up for a low BA and OBP and a weak rotation with a lot of power hitting and a stellar bullpen.  One very notable feature of the offense that should be highlighted is the .275/.333/.492 performance with RISP.   We always hear complaining about our RISP hitting when it's bad, but this month there was a ton of clutch hitting and our RISP numbers far exceeded our overall numbers.   The starting pitching, while still well below average and not covering many innings, was still a lot more competitive in June than in prior months.   That afforded the bullpen a chance to protect leads rather than just trying to keep games from getting out of hand; while the pen has been very good all year, 10 saves in June was more than in April/May combined.  The defense was a mixed bag, but made fewer errors than in prior months and didn't take us out of games.  Watching the games, I feel the OF defense has been really good of late, more than the numbers reflect.

[Frobby]

Here's a quick month-by-month breakdown of some leading indicators (league averages in parentheses where available)

Record -- 7-14, 14-16, 14-12

Runs/game -- 2.95 (3.91), 4.27 (4.18), 4.65 (4.38)

OPS -- .604 (.669), .691 (.698), .722 (.719)

RISP OPS -- .602, .686, .825

ERA -- 3.76 (3.59). 4.36 (3.92), 3.86 (3.94)

Starters ERA -- 4.08 (3.80), 5.45 (3.94), 4.59 (4.09)

Bullpen ERA -- 3.46 (3.35), 3.16 (3.89), 2.89 (3.72)

Saves/Opps -- 4/5, 5/9, 10/11

Errors/game -- 0.81, 0.70, 0.58

 

After an ice-cold start, our offense has improved each month.  The starting pitching nosedived in May but has rebounded well in June despite some individual struggles.   The bullpen has gotten a little better each month, though in May the 'pen blew several saves despite a good ERA, wheras in June the 'pen was fantastic at preserving leads.   The defense has gotten a little tighter each month by traditional measures.    

Overall, I think the offense can hold up and perhaps even improve a bit more.   Pitching is where I hold my breath every night.   

 

[Frobby]

July 2022

16-9 record (best month since June 2016)

11-3 at home

5-6 on the road

5-5 vs. AL East

4-5 in one-run games

2-1 in extra innings

Batting

4.44 runs per game was 7th in the AL

.247 BA was 8th

.315 OBP was 8th

.398 SLG was 10th

.712 OPS was 10th

1.00 HR/game was tied for 8th

.271/.333/.392 with RISP (232 PA, 199 AB, 54 H, 77 TOB, 78 TB) 

Pitching

3.61 ERA was 3rd in the AL

3.72 runs allowed per game was 3rd

1.28 HR/game was 4th highest

4.35 starters' ERA was 9th

5.05 IP/Start was 13th

2.66 bullpen ERA was 3rd

9 saves was tied for 2nd 

13 save opportunities was a 5-way tie for 2nd

4 blown saves

Defense

2 unearned runs was lowest in the AL

0.32 errors per game (8 errors) 

+4.1 fangraphs defense 

+1.6 UZR (+5.3 OF, -3.7 IF)

-2 OAA (-6 OF, +4 IF)

+8 Rtot 

+8 Rdrs 

Cumulative through July

Batting

4.17 runs per game was 8th in the AL

.234 BA was 11th

.301 OBP was 11th

.385 SLG was 9th

.686 OPS was 12th

1.02 HR/game was 8th

.239/.313/.398 with RISP (940 PA, 807 AB, 193 H, 293 TOB, 321 TB); .711 OPS was 11th

Pitching

3.93 ERA was 7th in the AL

4.24 runs allowed per game was 5th

1.10 HR/game was 8th lowest

4.69 starters' ERA was 13th

4.76 IP/Start was 14th

3.05 bullpen ERA was 2md

28 saves was 6th

37 save opportunities was 12th

9 blown saves was tied for 2nd fewest in the AL

Defense

37 unearned runs was tied for 6th best in the AL

0.60 errors per game (61 errors) was 4th worst in the AL

+8.6 fangraphs defense was 6th 

+3.0 UZR was 7th (+2.3 OF, +0.7 OF)

-4 OAA was 12th (-7 OF, +3 IF)

+3 Rtot was tied for 11th 

+39 Rdrs was 4th

Conclusion

The team's best month in six years was fueled by pitching and defense.   The offense was middle of the pack by most measures, but the staff was 3rd in ERA and runs allowed per game, with only 2 unearned runs crossing the plate and most defensive measures in the plus column.   The bullpen had some shaky outings the first few days of the month, but rebounded and was great the rest of the way, frequently covering 4-5 innings and yielding little.    It was a great month, featuring a 10-game winning streak for the first time in 23 years, and thrilled Orioles fans who have suffered so much the last 5 years.   

[Frobby]

August 2022

17-10 record 

8-4 at home

9-6 on the road

7-5 vs. AL East

3-3 in one-run games

1-0 in extra innings

Batting

4.37 runs per game was 5th in the AL

.244 BA was 6th

.313 OBP was 7th

.404 SLG was 4th

.717 OPS was 4th

1.11 HR/game was 4th

.258/.310/.396 with RISP (252 PA, 217 AB, 56 H, 78 TOB, 86 TB) 

Pitching

3.43 ERA was 6th in the AL

3.59 runs allowed per game was tied for 4th

0.96 HR/game was 6th best

3.27 starters' ERA was 6th

5.70 IP/Start was 6th

3.71 bullpen ERA was 10th

9 saves was tied for 3rd 

11 save opportunities was tied for 5th

2 blown saves

Defense

6 unearned runs was tied for 3rd lowest in the AL

0.56 errors per game (15 errors) 

+2.3 fangraphs defense 

-0.7 UZR (-1.3 OF, -+0.6 IF)

+2 OAA (+4 OF, -4 IF)

-3 Rtot 

-3 Rdrs 

Cumulative through August

Batting

4.21 runs per game was 9th in the AL

.236 BA was 11th

.304 OBP was 12th

.389 SLG was 7th

.693 OPS was 9th

1.04 HR/game was 8th

.243/.313/.398 with RISP (1192 PA, 1024 AB, 249 H, 371 TOB, 407TB); .711 OPS was 12th

Pitching

3.82 ERA was 7th in the AL

4.10 runs allowed per game was 6th

1.07 HR/game was 8th lowest

4.35 starters' ERA was 10th

4.96 IP/Start was 11th

3.16 bullpen ERA was 3rd

37 saves was tied for 4th

48 save opportunities was tied for 9th

11 blown saves was tied for  fewest in the AL

Defense

44 unearned runs was 5th best in the AL

0.59 errors per game (76 errors) was 3rd worst in the AL

+10.9 fangraphs defense was 5th 

+2.3 UZR was 6th (+1.0 OF, +1.3 IF)

-2 OAA was 11th (-7 OF, +3 IF)

0 Rtot was 12th 

+36 Rdrs was 6th

Conclusion

The Orioles followed their best month in 5 years with an equally good month, and registered three consecutive winning months for the first time since April - June 2016.   The offense was slightly above average but a bit inconsistent.   The starting pitching was not only slightly above average in ERA, but also in IP/start, logging far more innings per game than in any other month.  The bullpen's ERA was up significantly, but the pen pitched well when it mattered most, logging 9 saves in 11 chances.   The defense was a Rohrschach test for most metrics, but the team yielded very few unearned runs.   All in all, it was a solid month in all respects.   Interestingly, the team went 14-0 when scoring 4 runs or more, 3-10 when scoring 3 or less.   So, let's hope the team can score 4+ a bit more often in September!

[emmett16]

Wow.  The SP averaged a complete inning more per game than July.  That’s a lot of innings they saved the BP from pitching in the most difficult month of the year (weather wise).