The Westburg Theory

[wildcard]

Westburg got off to a slow start at AA.   He has  a .247 average because of that slow start.  All his other offensive numbers are good and his defense in good but that  low average could have been enough for Elias to keep him at AA until Westburg improve it.    

But Elias promoted him to AAA anyway partly because in the last 30 days Westburg has a .295  average to go with the rest of his good numbers.   Elias ignored the low average for the year.

The O's starting pitching is what it is for a while.   Lyles, T Wells, Zimmerman, Bradish and Kremer are likely to give up 3 runs plus or minus in 4 to 6 innings and then the pen will finish the game give up one or no runs in an average game.   The offense will sputter with inconsistency and the team will lose on average 2 of 3 games.  Elias needs to do something.  He doesn't have any help available for the starters so his best bet is to try to improve the offense.

Stowers  got off to a slow starts AAA.   He has a .259 average because of that slow start.  All his other offensive numbers and his defense are good.  But in the last 30 days his average is .294.   Sound familiar?   

In this theory Elias promotes Stowers to play a corner outfield spot, Hays moves to CF and Mullins who is not hitting  .727 OPS moves to a back up role while the O's see whether that improves their chances to win.   Probably not a permanent move but just to see what happens.

I also could see Martin with his 830 AAA OPS promoted to play SS to see what he offers and Mateo moved to a UIF position because Mateo is not hitting.  Just to see what happens for a while.  Elias needs to improve the offense and these two moves that may help.

Do you think Elias makes either of these moves?

[scbalt52]

Can't see Mullins getting benched yet. Don't think he's really close to that. 

[SteveA]

A theory whose entire basis is an assumption that Elias cares about improving the record of the major league team this year, and makes moves based on that rather than on player development or future payroll considerations - is flawed from the start.  It's like designing a GPS system based on a belief in a flat earth.  It's broke from the beginning.

EVERYTHING he has done with prospects has been based on him bringing them up only when he feels they are "ready".  And we don't know exactly what "ready" means, whether it is solely based on their development or whether it also includes a healthy dose of slowly playing guys for extra years of control or fewer years of arbitration.  But we sure as heck can see that it has nothing to do with what the need is at the MLB level, or any desire to field a .500 team or even a .450 team instead of a sub-.400 team.

[jamalshw]

For Martin, I have no idea. I'm not sure if it matters in the long run as he's a utility infielder at best on a winning team, but I'm sure all of OH would be happy to see him promoted if it meant Owings was gone (which it probably would). I don't know that they give Martin SS, but I could see more of an even split with Martin and Mateo and could see them sitting Mateo for 3-5 days to try and let him get a breather to see if that helps. Given the defense, I still think Mateo is the better player compared to Martin, but having both splitting SS and UTL is better than the Mateo/Owings combo so that is a move that should happen and may happen. Though with Owings on bereavement, it's notable that Nevin was tabbed to replace him on the roster and not Martin. 

For Stowers, I don't see them benching Mullins to let Stowers play. I do think we see Mullins get a few more days off (it's already started a bit) with Hays in CF, and I wouldn't object to him getting promoted and the three OF spots, DH and 1B get rotated through with Mullins, Hays, Santander, Stowers, Mancini and Mountcastle all getting days off here and there. It would help keep them fresh...but I don't think we see Stowers until Mancini and/or Santander is traded closer to the deadline. 

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, SteveA said:

A theory whose entire basis is an assumption that Elias cares about improving the record of the major league team this year, and makes moves based on that rather than on player development or future payroll considerations - is flawed from the start.  It's like designing a GPS system based on a belief in a flat earth.  It's broke from the beginning.

EVERYTHING he has done with prospects has been based on him bringing them up only when he feels they are "ready".  And we don't know exactly what "ready" means, whether it is solely based on their development or whether it ALS includes a healthy dose of slow playing guys for extra years of control or fewer years of arbitration.  But we sure as heck can see that it has nothing to do with what the need is at the MLB level, or any desire to field a .500 team or even a .450 team instead of a sub-.400 team.

That's a pretty negative take.   Stowers has to be added to the 40 man roster anyway his off season.  So by promoting him now Elias gets 7 seasons of service time  from him.

[Aglets]

22 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Westburg got off to a slow start at AA.   He has  a .247 average because of that slow start.  All his other offensive numbers are good and his defense in good but that  low average could have been enough for Elias to keep him at AA until Westburg improve it.    

But Elias promoted him to AAA anyway partly because in the last 30 days Westburg has a .295  average to go with the rest of his good numbers.   Elias ignored the low average for the year.

The O's starting pitching is what it is for a while.   Lyles, T Wells, Zimmerman, Bradish and Kremer are likely to give up 3 runs plus or minus in 4 to 6 innings and then the pen will finish the game give up one or no runs in an average game.   The offense will sputter with inconsistency and the team will lose on average 2 of 3 games.  Elias needs to do something.  He doesn't have any help available for the starters so his best bet is to try to improve the offense.

Stowers  got off to a slow starts AAA.   He has a .259 average because of that slow start.  All his other offensive numbers and his defense are good.  But in the last 30 days his average is .294.   Sound familiar?   

In this theory Elias promotes Stowers to play a corner outfield spot, Hays moves to CF and Mullins who is not hitting  .727 OPS moves to a back up role while the O's see whether that improves their chances to win.   Probably not a permanent move but just to see what happens.

I also could see Martin with his 830 AAA OPS promoted to play SS to see what he offers and Mateo moved to a UIF position because Mateo is not hitting.  Just to see what happens for a while.  Elias needs to improve the offense and these two moves that may help.

Do you think Elias makes either of these moves?

Absolutely not and I question any argument that starts with the premise that Elias is really concerned over the batting average of a particular prospect.   I suspect that isn't even in the top 10 of metrics that he is concerned about.

Elias's main goal isn't winning games this year.  You know this, we know this, he has directly said this.  This season is about developing and evaluating prospects primarily, and Elias will promote them when his internal metrics show that they are ready.   I do think Stowers could be promoted soon, but it would not be at the expense of Mullins.   Seems to me that it would be McKenna that is more likely to be impacted.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

For Martin, I have no idea. I'm not sure if it matters in the long run as he's a utility infielder at best on a winning team, but I'm sure all of OH would be happy to see him promoted if it meant Owings was gone (which it probably would). I don't know that they give Martin SS, but I could see more of an even split with Martin and Mateo and could see them sitting Mateo for 3-5 days to try and let him get a breather to see if that helps. Given the defense, I still think Mateo is the better player compared to Martin, but having both splitting SS and UTL is better than the Mateo/Owings combo so that is a move that should happen and may happen. Though with Owings on bereavement, it's notable that Nevin was tabbed to replace him on the roster and not Martin. 

For Stowers, I don't see them benching Mullins to let Stowers play. I do think we see Mullins get a few more days off (it's already started a bit) with Hays in CF, and I wouldn't object to him getting promoted and the three OF spots, DH and 1B get rotated through with Mullins, Hays, Santander, Stowers, Mancini and Mountcastle all getting days off here and there. It would help keep them fresh...but I don't think we see Stowers until Mancini and/or Santander is traded closer to the deadline. 

I am for the outfield/1B/DH rotation but if Mullins is not hitting, him playing does not help the offense.  And I think that is the objective.    

Mateo has a strong arm and better range but his bat is weak.   Martin probably out hits him with decent range and good arm for SS.   Both can steal bases.  If Elias is trying to improve the offense he may give Martin a try for a while at SS is my guess.

This also sends a message to Mullins and Mateo that if they want to play then hit.   Nothing like a little internal competition to get the competitive juices flowing.

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Absolutely not and I question any argument that starts with the premise that Elias is really concerned over the batting average of a particular prospect.   I suspect that isn't even in the top 10 of metrics that he is concerned about.

Elias's main goal isn't winning games this year.  You know this, we know this, he has directly said this.  This season is about developing and evaluating prospects primarily, and Elias will promote them when his internal metrics show that they are ready.   I do think Stowers could be promoted soon, but it would not be at the expense of Mullins.   Seems to me that it would be McKenna that is more likely to be impacted.

McKenna could get sent to AAA when Stowers in promoted but getting Stowers playing time will impact several O's players.  With Mullins not hitting he could get impacted.

[vab]

Talk of benching Mullins is absolutely ridiculous. How would that look to the rest of these guys if a player coming off a 30/30 season gets benched after two bad months? 

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

McKenna could get sent to AAA when Stowers in promoted but getting Stowers playing time will impact several O's players.  With Mullins not hitting he could get impacted.

They are not bringing Stowers up until there are everyday PAs available for him. The annual Santander injury will probably be the key.

[Aristotelian]

I think Elias is promoting them according to a predetermined developmental timeframe and their overall body of work. Elias is not making these decisions based on last 30 day stats or what the MLB team needs to get to 68 wins instead of 65 wins.

I would not be surprised to see Stowers soon, but Mancini or Santander needs to get traded. In the meantime, those two need to play every day to continue building trade value. Stowers should not come up to be a utility outfielder nor should he push Hays or Mullins to the bench. 

Sure, we could see Martin at some point if Mateo hits his way out of the position. 

[DrungoHazewood]

36 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That's a pretty negative take.  

What actions from either this year or the last four-odd years have convinced you that right now is the moment that Elias and his team are ready to make decisions not on 2023-beyond, but instead on the team's 2022 record? 

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, vab said:

Talk of benching Mullins is absolutely ridiculous. How would that look to the rest of these guys if a player coming off a 30/30 season gets benched after two bad months? 

He's not even doing that bad. His OPS is higher than several MLB teams and he is playing solid defense as every day CF.

[DrungoHazewood]

14 minutes ago, vab said:

Talk of benching Mullins is absolutely ridiculous. How would that look to the rest of these guys if a player coming off a 30/30 season gets benched after two bad months? 

Like the team is being run by fans on social media instead of the front office?

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

He's not even doing that bad. His OPS is higher than several MLB teams and he is playing solid defense as every day CF.

Much of the Mullins hand-wringing is a combination of not quite digesting that offense is way down, the park is contributing to that, and unrealistic expectations that Mullins had permanently transformed himself into Mike Trout-lite.

On the other hand, I hope he's not a 93 OPS+ going forward.