Stacking up the O's record

[wildcard]

In the last 7 games   -   7-0   1.000

In July                            7-2    .777

Since June 1st             21-14   .600

Since April 30th          36-30  .545

So taking the O's win percentage since April 30 and comparing it to the AL current standings the O's have played well enough to be the #1 Wild Card team.   O's .545,   to the Red Sox .541.

And only two teams in the AL have better  win percentages; the Yankees at .718 and teh Astros at .655.

[Bahama O's Fan]

And in April we lost games by a close margin too:

2-1 Rays

5-3 Rays

5-4 Brewers

4-2 Brewers

2-1 Athletics

6-4 Athletics

7-6 Angels

3-1 Red Sox

So that's 8 games that were losses that we were competitive in as well.

[Frobby]

59 minutes ago, wildcard said:

In the last 7 games   -   7-0   1.000

In July                            7-2    .777

Since June 1st             21-14   .600

Since April 30th          36-30  .545

So taking the O's win percentage since April 30 and comparing it to the AL current standings the O's have played well enough to be the #1 Wild Card team.   O's .545,   to the Red Sox .541.

And only two teams in the AL have better  win percentages; the Yankees at .718 and teh Astros at .655.

If only those April games didn’t count.   Unfortunately, spring training ended in March.   

The O’s are still digging out of the hole they dug for themselves in April.   Let’s see if they can climb their way back to .500.   As you’ve said elsewhere, they have a few weeks before the big deadline decisions have to be made.   
 

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If only those April games didn’t count.   Unfortunately, spring training ended in March.   

The O’s are still digging out of the hole they dug for themselves in April.   Let’s see if they can climb their way back to .500.   As you’ve said elsewhere, they have a few weeks before the big deadline decisions have to be made.   
 

Just saying that since April 30th the O's have been playing at a pace to be a high wild card ranked team.   Something that was hard to imagine up to this point.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Just saying that since April 30th the O's have been playing at a pace to be a high wild card ranked team.   Something that was hard to imagine up to this point.

Well, to your credit, you’ve been imagining it pretty much all along.   I’m now at the point where I don’t think it’s ridiculous to hope we can creep into the wild card race.   I still think the odds are way against the O’s doing that, and it’s always dangerous to overreact to a hot streak like the O’s have been on over the last week.   But, the plain fact is, the team has made up a lot of ground on the WC contenders, and it can’t be ruled out that the team will stay hot between now and late July and make up even more ground.   So, I’m allowing myself to hope that happens.   Just not counting on it.   Either way, this has been a fun season so far and I think it will continue to be fun.  

[Frobby]

Not to be lost in our focus on the Orioles is the fact that most of the current WC contenders have been playing very poorly of late:  Boston 4-6, Toronto 2-8, Cleveland 3-7.   Seattle on the other hand is 9-1 and only 1.5 behind Toronto (one in the loss column).

Our schedule this month after finishing the Angels series:

2 @ CHC

3 @ TBR

(All Star Break)

3 NYY

4 TBR

3 @ CIN

By the time those games are done, we’ll only have 3 remaining games each with the Yankees and Rays this year in the final two months of the season.   Hard to believe!   On the other hand, we still play the Blue Jays 15 times and Boston 11.  

 

 

[WarehouseChatter]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not to be lost in our focus on the Orioles is the fact that most of the current WC contenders have been playing very poorly of late:  Boston 4-6, Toronto 2-8, Cleveland 3-7.   Seattle on the other hand is 9-1 and only 1.5 behind Toronto (one in the loss column).

Our schedule this month after finishing the Angels series:

2 @ CHC

3 @ TBR

(All Star Break)

3 NYY

4 TBR

3 @ CIN

By the time those games are done, we’ll only have 3 remaining games each with the Yankees and Rays this year in the final two months of the season.   Hard to believe!   On the other hand, we still play the Blue Jays 15 times and Boston 11.  

 

 

What will it take to be buyers vs. sellers?  While it may already be decided, I think it’s a PR nightmare for Elias if we go 2-1 through Thur and then 6-4 vs NY and TB.  We would be 50-49 and fans will riot that we’re trading Mancini.  I still think we have to trade for value - right move long-term.

[sportsfan8703]

4-9 vs the NYY. 38-35 versus everyone else. 

[Frobby]

Fangraphs now has the Orioles’ playoff chances at 1.5%.   We broke the magic 1% barrier — woo hoo!

[Griffey]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fangraphs now has the Orioles’ playoff chances at 1.5%.   We broke the magic 1% barrier — woo hoo!

And we are at 5% on fivethirtyeight.com!!!

[wildcard]

I think the O's players have proven to themselves that they can contend.   They may go 5-5 vs the Rays and Yanks and lose ground vs the Jays who plays KC for 4.    But overall the O's are capable of being  a wild card team over the rest of the season.

I don't think its smart to trade Mancini at the deadline.   I think the smarter move is to sign him and then trade him over the winter.  I just don't think it smart to break up a surging team.    Moves to make room for younger players can be made over the winter.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

Another day, another winning streak:) We didn’t lose today!

[LookinUp]

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think the O's players have proven to themselves that they can contend.   They may go 5-5 vs the Rays and Yanks and lose ground vs the Jays who plays KC for 4.    But overall the O's are capable of being  a wild card team over the rest of the season.

I don't think its smart to trade Mancini at the deadline.   I think the smarter move is to sign him and then trade him over the winter.  I just don't think it smart to break up a surging team.    Moves to make room for younger players can be made over the winter.

Sign and trades aren't a thing in MLB as far as I know. You either trade him now or you sign or lose him after the season.

[Just Regular]

Happy off day!    B-Ref's generous algorithm is at 9% today.    Clay Davenport was ~10% before Sunday's win (maybe Saturday too) though his updated ROS projections today still see the pits of the earth...

http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

The fun part about the last month is the mystery of where on the scale of the 2021 Giants are the 2022 Orioles.   On paper the pitchers are all terrible.     But what does Brad Klimek (or whoever the relevant rainmaker is) know or is doing that the projections don't.

On my personal DVR fast-forward filter, I am pre-contemplating actually watching Austin Voth or Spenser Watkins throw a pitch without the security blanket of 5x in reserve.

 

[NCRaven]

Teams fighting for the playoffs may trade for a RH 30 year-old first baseman that's a rental to fill a short term hole, specifically because there is no long-term commitment of dollars or a roster spot.  Most teams probably will not trade for a RH 31 year-old first baseman with a long-term commitment and big dollars attached.  If you want to keep Mancini for the rest of this season, I won't fight you over that.  If you actually want to sign him to a new contract after this year, I'll call you crazy.

Trade Santander and call up Stowers.  Trade Odor and call up Westburg for 3B and move Urias to 2B (or SS if you want to call up Vavra too).  Trade Lyles and select Harvey's contract, for me they are basically the same guy.  Personally, I'd trade Mancini too, but I wouldn't fuss over keeping him for the last 2 1/2 months of the season.