Fangraphs annual trade value rankings: Cedric Mullins #33

[Frobby]

Every year at the trade deadline, Fangraphs ranks the players with the highest trade value.   It’s based on a combination of the player’s ability and his age and contract situation.  

So far, they’ve ranked no’s. 31-50, and Cedric Mullins slots in at no. 33:

“Maybe everyone should stop switch hitting. Mullins took off after abandoning his righty swing entirely, and while he’s come back down to earth this year, he’s still producing a league-average batting line while playing excellent defense and adding boatloads of value on the basepaths. I’ve seen enough at this point to say that Mullins isn’t a consistent 130 wRC+ hitter, but I’ve also seen enough to be very confident in his ability to produce a line around league average. Combine that with his other contributions, and that’s an above average player for years to come, as the ZiPS projections above make clear.

“Paradoxically, Mullins might have so much trade value that the Orioles won’t trade him. He was popular in the rumor mill last year and this past offseason, but it never made that much sense to me, because he won’t be a free agent until after the 2025 season. That squarely overlaps with when the Orioles are hoping to bring a wave of minor league talent to the big leagues. Baltimore isn’t in the trade-core-major-league-pieces phase of rebuilding anymore, which probably makes this ranking theoretical. That’s true of almost every player on this list, but I thought it was worth reiterating with Mullins. He’s great – and he’ll likely be great in orange for years to come.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-trade-value-31-to-40/

I expect Adley to be quite high on this list.   Probably no other Orioles I suspect   .

 

[Sports Guy]

If Mullins is that high on this list, a list where most players aren’t even available, he should be worth a ton right now and should be dealt..that is if the league views him the same way.

[seak05]

Yeah, I expect Adley to be top 10. Wouldn’t be totally stunned if Grayson made it 

[Frobby]

There’s this site called baseballtradevalues.com that puts a value on every player.   The top of their Orioles list looks like this: 

Rutschman $109.4 mm

Henderson $70.1 mm

Mullins $59.0 mm

Rodriguez $51.9 mm

Mountcastle $27.1 mm

Hays $26.7 mm

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/500/

 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Yeah, I expect Adley to be top 10. Wouldn’t be totally stunned if Grayson made it 

I wouldn't have been surprised to see Grayson in the 40-50 range.

I would not expect him to be in the top 30.

 

[Aristotelian]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I wouldn't have been surprised to see Grayson in the 40-50 range.

I would not expect him to be in the top 30.

 

Does this list include minor leaguers? 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Does this list include minor leaguers? 

Adley made the list in 2021 and 2020.

[Just Regular]

Now I'm honestly intrigued tomorrow to see if Clemens places Grayson in the 21-30 range.

Gunnar played his way up to Honorable Mention range with his 2022 breakout, whereas Grayson was already at that level opening the season and pitched spectacularly again until he strained his side.

You could probably cross-reference Trade Values Top 30 surpluses and identify Clemens' final 30.

The BTV-Ben Clemens contrast so far suggests Mullins' major league production outweighs Gunnar's forecast, so maybe his Grayson guess will be a Hurt Pitcher falls all the way out of even Honorable Mention status.    #TINSTAAPP   

In the Intro piece, Clemens teased Juilo/Witt skyrocketing....will be fun to see where he situates Adley relative to them.     We can't know how Rookie of Year will end, but the likelihood is Adley has both of them 6-5 on remaining years of control from here.

Adley-Grayson, Fangraphs gonna give you some Bulletin Board stuff.    This list should be great fun for Orioles fans the next couple years.

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Adley made the list in 2021 and 2020.

Interesting. Looks like very few prospects, maybe need to be MLB 1 or 2 to crack the top 50? I am skimming through now, but looks like Adley may have been the only one in the top 50 last year. Based on that and the injury I am going to guess Grayson won't be in the top 50 this year, although I would absolutely have him there myself. 

Based on what I'm seeing, Max Meyer wouldn't be anywhere close to top 40 based on how they seem to value prospects, but he was seen as a popular "reach" trade target for Mullins. 

[Snutchy]

There will always be questions about his health. While it can be managed, it can't be cured. I grew up around someone with it and it comes and goes when it wants. If I'm a GM of another team, I may be leery of giving up too much for someone I could lose for an extended amount of time to surgery at any moment.

[Spy Fox]

I thought we would see both Grayson and Cedric in the 31-40 range, but agree that Grayson probably won't make top 30. Particularly looking at Fangraphs most up to date prospect rankings which have Gunnar at 7 ranked above Grayson at 10 (#3 SP), and where their #1 SP prospect Eury Perez was only in Honorable Mentions. 

Interestingly Nick Lodolo, who is ranked as Fangraphs #44 prospect and #11 SP prospect, appears to be the lowest ranked prospect on the HM list by a wide margin. I guess 47 strikeouts in 32 MLB innings helps.  

I predict Adley in the 10-15 range. 

[BRobinsonfan]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

There’s this site called baseballtradevalues.com that puts a value on every player.   The top of their Orioles list looks like this: 

Rutschman $109.4 mm

Henderson $70.1 mm

Mullins $59.0 mm

Rodriguez $51.9 mm

Mountcastle $27.1 mm

Hays $26.7 mm

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/500/

 

Ok... www.baseballtradevalues.com has become my new favorite web site... well... second favorite. OH is the first.   

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

 

Interestingly Nick Lodolo, who is ranked as Fangraphs #44 prospect and #11 SP prospect, appears to be the lowest ranked prospect on the HM list by a wide margin. I guess 47 strikeouts in 32 MLB innings helps.  

I think once a prospect actually cracks the major leagues and doesn’t wet the bed, their value on lists like this shoots up.   It’s always comforting to see a player succeeding in the majors (or at least, not failing miserably).

[btdart20]

I can appreciate what they are trying to do with these "Net Present Value" type valuations, but it really leaves out the real world. 

I have to think Atlanta values Max Fried much greater than Baltimore values Mullins.  A lefty SP for the defending WS champs who happens to have their rotations best ERA has to be more important than an "above average" CF (per the write up).  Even with one less year of arbitration on Fried's horizon.  

Factor in org building, competitive cycles, even market size as appropriate too...  It's a good start at a buyers/sellers shopping list though.

[MurphDogg]

Adley is #13 on the list.