The market for short stops

[2001OriolesFan]

The Orioles have aquired/drafted up the middle position players and have had luck and successful results.   Right now we have a weapon in Mateo at SS.  He is a great defensive SS and his speed on the bases adds a dimension in disrupting the opponents defenses, with his base stealing and ability to take extra bases.   But he has a flaw, which is his .200 level batting average.  If he can improve his pitch recognition, stay away from the down and away pitch and get his BA to .230, he would be a good starting SS on most teams.  We should be happy.

Waiting on deck , at AAA is Gunnar Henderson,  He is considered a "plus" prospect and is ranked the overall #5 prospect in MLB.  There is talk of him having superstart potential.  (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/   &   https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/gunnar-henderson-683002  ).   We should be happy to have him waiting in the wings but they have not been willing to pull the trigger on moving him up at least this year because Mateo is doing good and blocking him.  What a problem to have.

Just drafted is Holliday .  The 1-1 pick in the 2022 draft.  He is 18 and will still get bigger and stronger.   I look at these three players as having about these values as scouting reports

                                  HIT        POWER            RUN          ARM         FIELD        OVERALL         AGE

Mateo                       35          50                   80              60            60               55                  28

Henderson                55          60                   55              65            50                60                 21

Holliday                    60          55                   60              55            55                60                  18

 

Not much to chose between them.  I expect Holiday will improve as he matures and may wind up a 65 or 70 by the time he reaches the big leagues.

(There are also, Prieto, Wesburg & May)o

What do the O's do with this problem?  Holliday is obviously 2-3 years away from MLB, so we can forget about him for a while but he does make other SS movable in a trade and not necessary to keep as insurance.   We could bring in Henderson as a 3rd baseman-  except that Urias is having a break-out second half of the season at 3B.  Do we bring in Henderson at 2B,  get Henderson used to MLB?   Use Vavara and Westburg as utility infielders for at least a while?   Package Urias and Mateo in late 2023 for starting pitching and go with Mayo, Henderson, Westburg for a while?

Another aspect for right now is that there are a lot of good SS's potentially available for trade right now, so it might be a buyers market. https://www.mlb.com/news/2022-trade-deadline-chip-for-all-30-teams?partnerId=zh-20220726-660406-mlb-1-B&qid=1026&bt_ee=j1j7NevC%2Fzm5fIHCVVVQzj4mPcM9waP1LZKA566P%2BfL6cvPyKwER4JifOEjP7vsC&bt_ts=1658846539692  

That article shows Peraza (spankies),  Rosario (Indians),  Leon (Astros)  Maurecio (Mets) and Turang (Brewers) might be available.   Not the best market if you have thoughts of moving Mateo now.

 

[jamalshw]

I would be willing to trade Mateo in the right deal. I'm curious if the rest of the league sees his value as much as we do? The speed and defense are great, but the offense is what sells and we are not far removed from him being released by San Diego. 

If you can get a good piece for him or use him as a cog in package for a pitcher, you do it. I'm just not sure a worthwhile deal is there. As you noted, Holliday is still several years away and not worth considering at the moment as you never know what will happen between now and then. Develop him and decide what you need to do when he's ready. 

For the rest, I want to see Vavra play as much as possible between now and the end of the year to see what he is. I know he's not an answer at SS, obviously, but we need to see if he's a possible answer at 2B as either a starter or a utility guy backing up 2B and serving as a 4th/5th OF. 

If not this year, then to start next season (or at least by the end of April) I'd like to see Westburg and Henderson in the majors. I was one that was upset Odor made the team and an advocate to replace him well into June, but I see his value now as a leader, but he's gone next season. And, of course, Nevin has shown himself as a AAAA player. That's where you get the roster spots, but where do you get the ABs? 

Some of that depends on what we see from Vavra and Mateo down the stretch. We've seen stretches where Mateo hits a bit better and if he's even a mediocre hitter, it plays given his defense and speed. 

For me, come May of 2023 (injuries notwithstanding) we should see a lineup that has Henderson and Westburg playing everyday at two of the three infield positions with Urias getting the bulk of the work at either 2B or 3B depending on what gives us the best defense. That leaves Vavra as a utility player backing up 2B and the OF and Mateo as a defensive replacement at SS and pinch runner getting an occasional start.  

Depending on what happens at the deadline (or winter) with Santander, there may be more ABs to be had in the OF and/or DH. You, of course, wouldn't put Mateo at DH or anything, but he could slide into SS with someone like Henderson or Urias getting a day off the field while keeping the bat in the order. 

I wouldn't worry about any further in the future for now as injuries and poor play may necessitate moving on from a player and that would open the door for the likes of Mayo and the guys that figure to be ready sometime late 2023 or after. Those guys can also become trade chips depending on what's needed at the time (likely pitching). I'm not opposed to the idea of packaging guys like Urias and Mateo if you get the right piece, but I don't see a need at the moment to force a trade we are finally getting to that place where we have quality options at nearly every position with some guys in the minors ready to step in. That's where the Orioles should be. Now if we can use some of the excess to help the pitching get to that point, too, I'm all about that. 

[Aristotelian]

Don't forget Urias. It really is a tricky situation. We've got two guys that have established positive WAR value. Our top prospects are infielders seemingly ready to take their positions. Urias and Mateo probably are worth more to other teams than they are to Baltimore. That does argue for a trade although it doesn't need to be now. 

[jabba72]

Depends what the trade value is for Mateo and Urias. It may not be as much as you think since they were both acquired by waivers. Someone (not Mateo IMO) is going to have to play 2B. Maybe Henderson should start getting starts there in Norfolk. 

[ChuckS]

11 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Depends what the trade value is for Mateo and Urias. It may not be as much as you think since they were both acquired by waivers. Someone (not Mateo IMO) is going to have to play 2B. Maybe Henderson should start getting starts there in Norfolk. 

Based on Henderson's scouting report and usage there is no way he's moving from the left side of the infield.  The arm is too much of a weapon. 

The most likely alignment in 2023 IMO is Henderson at 3B, Mateo at SS, and Urias at 2B with Westburg being moved around the infield.  Vavra is in the mix too so a trade may need to be made.  

[RZNJ]

3B Henderson 

SS Mateo

2B Urias

Westburg could be a super utility type who plays everyday. He already has experience at all 3 infield spots and no doubt can play 1B as well.  He also has a good arm and speed which should translate to the OF.

Or Westburg could just become a GG caliber 1B and the Orioles could trade Mountcastle or move him to DH the majority of the time.

Or the Orioles could trade Mateo and/or Urias but I'm of the opinion that their trade value, particularly in Mateo's case, is not optimal yet.

Edited July 27, 2022 by RZNJ

[Frobby]

This is what I call a good problem to have.   Elias has lots of flexibility as to which assets to trade and which to build around.   I’m sure he has a lot more information at his disposal than we do to make those decisions.    

My gut feeling on Mateo is that he might have more trade value after next year than this one, if he can use the time to solidify his hitting.   RZNJ and others have noted that he’s made some changes that seem to be yielding results.  It will take longer to really know. 
 

[sportsfan8703]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This is what I call a good problem to have.   Elias has lots of flexibility as to which assets to trade and which to build around.   I’m sure he has a lot more information at his disposal than we do to make those decisions.    

My gut feeling on Mateo is that he might have more trade value after next year than this one, if he can use the time to solidify his hitting.   RZNJ and others have noted that he’s made some changes that seem to be yielding results.  It will take longer to really know. 
 

Yes, this is a great problem to have.  Just like having Stowers ready in AAA in the OF, with Cowser right behind him.  We've built an offensive pipeline with a really good bullpen.  Now it's time to get the pitching pipeline rocking.  

[jabba72]

1 hour ago, ChuckS said:

Based on Henderson's scouting report and usage there is no way he's moving from the left side of the infield.  The arm is too much of a weapon. 

The most likely alignment in 2023 IMO is Henderson at 3B, Mateo at SS, and Urias at 2B with Westburg being moved around the infield.  Vavra is in the mix too so a trade may need to be made.  

Urias is +10 rdrs in 47 starts at 3B this year, so he is clearly playing way above average at 3B. Thats why I suggested Henderson to 2B even with the plus arm. 

[ChosenOne21]

Mateo would make a pretty good utility infielder/defensive replacement/pinch runner. Keep him for now and let Gunnar/Holliday take over SS when they're ready

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, 2001OriolesFan said:

The Orioles have aquired/drafted up the middle position players and have had luck and successful results.   Right now we have a weapon in Mateo at SS.  He is a great defensive SS and his speed on the bases adds a dimension in disrupting the opponents defenses, with his base stealing and ability to take extra bases.   But he has a flaw, which is his .200 level batting average.  If he can improve his pitch recognition, stay away from the down and away pitch and get his BA to .230, he would be a good starting SS on most teams.  We should be happy.

Waiting on deck , at AAA is Gunnar Henderson,  He is considered a "plus" prospect and is ranked the overall #5 prospect in MLB.  There is talk of him having superstart potential.  (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/   &   https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/gunnar-henderson-683002  ).   We should be happy to have him waiting in the wings but they have not been willing to pull the trigger on moving him up at least this year because Mateo is doing good and blocking him.  What a problem to have.

Just drafted is Holliday .  The 1-1 pick in the 2022 draft.  He is 18 and will still get bigger and stronger.   I look at these three players as having about these values as scouting reports

                                  HIT        POWER            RUN          ARM         FIELD        OVERALL         AGE

Mateo                       35          50                   80              60            60               55                  28

Henderson                55          60                   55              65            50                60                 21

Holliday                    60          55                   60              55            55                60                  18

 

Not much to chose between them.  I expect Holiday will improve as he matures and may wind up a 65 or 70 by the time he reaches the big leagues.

(There are also, Prieto, Wesburg & May)o

What do the O's do with this problem?  Holliday is obviously 2-3 years away from MLB, so we can forget about him for a while but he does make other SS movable in a trade and not necessary to keep as insurance.   We could bring in Henderson as a 3rd baseman-  except that Urias is having a break-out second half of the season at 3B.  Do we bring in Henderson at 2B,  get Henderson used to MLB?   Use Vavara and Westburg as utility infielders for at least a while?   Package Urias and Mateo in late 2023 for starting pitching and go with Mayo, Henderson, Westburg for a while?

Another aspect for right now is that there are a lot of good SS's potentially available for trade right now, so it might be a buyers market. https://www.mlb.com/news/2022-trade-deadline-chip-for-all-30-teams?partnerId=zh-20220726-660406-mlb-1-B&qid=1026&bt_ee=j1j7NevC%2Fzm5fIHCVVVQzj4mPcM9waP1LZKA566P%2BfL6cvPyKwER4JifOEjP7vsC&bt_ts=1658846539692  

That article shows Peraza (spankies),  Rosario (Indians),  Leon (Astros)  Maurecio (Mets) and Turang (Brewers) might be available.   Not the best market if you have thoughts of moving Mateo now.

 

Very nice and well laid out first post! Welcome to the board.

[terpfan101]

I've been thinking about this a lot lately as well and agree with much of what you said @Aristotelian, Holliday likely 2-3 years away, so in meantime Urias + Henderson + Westburg + Mateo + Vavra would be a fine group to have occupy 2B, 3B, SS, partial DH and PR/PH. Every quality playoff team needs a guy who can come off the bench and get a SB and I think Mateo can fill that role nicely and platoon a bit. 

Mateo is with the team from through the 2025 season, Urias through 2026, Vavra I believe through 2027 or 2028, and Henderson/Westburg unless called up soon are through 2028. Gotta figure Holliday is through 2030 at least. Seems like having most of these pieces isn't a bad thing for a contending team. If you can package one plus another prospect/player for a #1/#2 starter controllable then it'd certainly have to be considered.

[MarCakes21]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

This is what I call a good problem to have.   Elias has lots of flexibility as to which assets to trade and which to build around.   I’m sure he has a lot more information at his disposal than we do to make those decisions.    

My gut feeling on Mateo is that he might have more trade value after next year than this one, if he can use the time to solidify his hitting.   RZNJ and others have noted that he’s made some changes that seem to be yielding results.  It will take longer to really know. 
 

Not that you'd want to, but if Elias has a belief that Henderson/Westburg/Vavra might not provide significant (or any) surplus value to Mateo/Urias, then he could keep them in the minors and play the long game to state their blocked.  This likely applies more to Westburg/Vavra than Henderson who is seen as more elite, and I'm sure wouldn't make these guys personally happy, but there's no reason to bring them up early when you can control them longer and have guys producing near equal value at the majors.

We as fans always want the next big thing, but there's always the possibility that these guys are replacement player or average big leaguers with none or little value of what you know you have in Urias and Mateo. 

[SilverRocket]

I wonder how much trade value Urias has. With his versatility, I think his actual value is quite high but probably higher for other teams than us, since our infield depth is pretty good. But given his relatively short history, I don't know how much that translates into trade value. His peripherals have been good all year though.

Next year, I could see Gunnar, Westburg and Mateo having the primary spots, with Urias as a DJ LeMahieu type who plays every day but moves around to let a regular rest or DH. That doesn't leave room for Vavra.

[Gentile4]

I guess I don't see the reasoning behind relegating Westburg to super utility status. Isn't the consensus that he's a better defensive shortstop than Henderson?