Jorge Lopez traded to Twins for pitching prospects (edit)

[NCRaven]

5 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

AllStar waiver claim .. 

Because every team had to have someone on the team.

[btdart20]

For context, Lopez was a waiver claim.  Literally cost us nothing but minimum payroll the last few years.  A little sweat equity and he's an All-Star closer and flipped to address the biggest gap in the org:  systemic pitching depth.  As much as we/you may question the return, this is a guy with a checkered past performance-wise.  

Povich, Nunez and Rojas are the key pieces.  Cano is org fodder with a chance to absorb some MLB innings ROS.  Povich is a legit SP prospect (3rd round and projectability) as others have said.  Rojas and Nunez have high K rates and relatively low BB rates.  Rojas' age and performance to date make him especially interesting.  Stats aside for all of them, I'm sure there are metrics (spin rate, velo, movement, pitch profiles...) that support why Elias agreed to these guys.  Maybe we can unlock something that the Twins couldn't...

Why this type of deal?  Trading a position of depth for a position of need.  MLB RP depth at high value for SPs to fill the ranks and back fill the RP role too.  It shows a conscience effort to retool the minors with SP talent.  

Why now?  Get while the gettin' is good and lock in the profits.  Perhaps not peak, but pitchers are timebombs.  And relievers (especially with dicey track records) are volatile investments.  Another angle is the PR/team impact angle...  Rip off the band-aid once.  Sure, we could hold him and make a decision later, but typically the trade deadline inflates RP value.  Plus, next year we're hopefully in a much stronger position. 

I like the comparison to the Bundy trade, except this was for a closer.  A little quality, some timeline risk, and a few chances at the wheel to hit in the black IMO.  Maybe we could have gotten more holding until next or until later today.  Maybe not.

The main idea is that we locked in the profits of a waiver claim.

[Sydnor]

2 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

As someone who spent the entirety of Lopez's Orioles run as a starter begging that he be converted to a reliever and then seeing him immediately become one of the best relievers in baseball, perhaps I have an implicit pro-Lopez bias. 

But I just don't see anything in his relief performance to suggest that he is more likely than any other reliever to fall off a cliff.

I recognize that he was going to get expensive over these final two seasons of arbitration, and obviously that hurts his trade value but (a) the Orioles didn't have to trade him as they claim that there is a championship window opening and (b) The Orioles have the lowest payroll in baseball and can afford to pay a closer what would still be less than his fair market value.

Yeah, Bautista is certainly better and he is the one to build around, but this moves Tate into the 8th inning role and Krehbiel into the 7th inning role and converts the bullpen from a strength into more of a question mark. And for what? A guy that Elias sees as a potential #4 starter, a 28-year-old reliever who has struggled with walks, and two rookie league lottery tickets, one of whom is two years too old for the Complex League.

I would have kept him.

Hopefully all these guys work out and I will laugh at myself looking back on this thread in 5 years.

I would have kept him too because I saw him as an Andrew Miller type that didn’t make it as a starter but was dominant in the bullpen.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, vab said:

Decent point but you seem to totally disregard this staff's ability to bring out the best in guys who have struggled elsewhere. 

Yea because clearly the idea that they struggled mightily at it for 3 years but have done well with it this season suggests they will do it going forward.

And also, that’s totally irrelevant.  Just because you can have success doing something doesn’t mean you get rid of an asset at a lesser cost.

[Sydnor]

Jon Shepherd’s take on the return…

 

[Sports Guy]

Soto going to SD, for their whole farm system, means no Santander there.

[Ripken]

18 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Based on what?

Relievers are mostly fungible.  He's never had this level of success before.  There's nothing exceptional about his stuff.  I just don't think he's suddenly an important piece going forward or will maintain the current results.  Looks like the league has similar views.

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

I mentioned him once in this thread, but if you seriously think this team is capable of "winning" this season, you should seek professional help.  

Hey …they could very likely sneak in to playoffs. But, they weren’t beating the Yanks or Houston in a short series. 

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

Jon Shepherd’s take on the return…

 

Pretty much. Either you trust the O's intel on these players or you don't. I think when we see the full picture of  the Mancini/Lopez/Santander trades, assuming Tony is traded, it's going to look pretty solid collectively. 

Edited August 2, 2022 by interloper

[jrobb21613]

Never heard of any of these guys. I do like adding 4 pitchers to the organization. Our weakest area of our farm system is pitching and this trades makes it a little better today. I’ll trust Elias and his staff.

[LarryHarlow]

14 minutes ago, NashLumber said:

It's like the "and the rest" on Gilligan's Island Theme?

I mean if our prospects turn out to be the Professor and Mary Ann of the Orioles, that's a pretty good return!

[DJHJR86]

We got 6 pitchers in return for 1 and a 30 year old DH who has had a starter level WAR for only 2 seasons...and people are upset at this?  I legitimately do not understand.

[billw76]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, it doesn’t mean anything.  It’s apples to Buicks.   He is in a completely different role. Most closers sucked as starters.

We'll have to disagree on this. Yes it's possible he turned a corner, but it's also possible he's just pitched out of his mind the first half.

I'm not thrilled with the return, but ok with moving Lopez because I'm not convinced he'd keep up the first half performance.

[billw76]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I find it amusing that Lopez’s track record means he will regress yet Bautista, who until last year had a poor MiL track record, is destined to be some great reliever.  
 

 

Bautista could very well regress too, happens all the time with relievers, I'd be fine moving him in the right deal as well.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, billw76 said:

Bautista could very well regress too, happens all the time with relievers, I'd be fine moving him in the right deal as well.

It happens yes..but usually there are real indicators as to why it will happen.

Tate is a perfect example of someone you should expect to regress.

Lopez and Bautista don’t have those indicators.