When we "lift off", who should they be trying to acquire?

[baltfan]

6 hours ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Agree with the rest that starting pitcher is the target to go for.

Would be interested in Noah Syndergaard.  He's been traded to Philly as a rental and is worth keeping an eye on down the stretch as he continues to recover from TJS.

Syndergaard starts

2017 - 7

2018 - 25

2019 - 32

2020 - 2

2021 - 16

2022 - 15 (so far)

That's scary to me for a guy that doesn't have elite stuff anymore.

[seak05]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They would have Mullins for 3 years.  

This is the #1 position they have apparently identified as what they want.

 

 

I'm sure they would love to have Mullins, and that's why it's 1 Mayo/Westburg type prospect, and not a top 5 guy + 2 more in the top 10. Other CF exist, top line starters are more rare, and he still has two years 

[RarityFlaherty]

With what we have in the farm system, I definitely wouldn’t want to spend money on any position players in free agency. We should save all of our money to sign starting pitchers. I would definitely be happy with Clevinger, or a guy like Syndergaard. Get someone in here with some playoff experience. 

[backwardsk]

Machado can opt out after 23.  Just saying.

[baltfan]

I would go for Verlander, deGrom, or maybe Rodon if he opts out.

Verlander is old but has a new elbow.  You are going to pay a ton, but it will be for a relatively short contract.  

deGrom is sneaky old (35).  He says he is opting out.  His contract pays $30.5mm if doesn't opt out next year.  He is a little more of a risk given injury history, but the stuff is still elite.  

Rodon has been pretty elite for two years now.  He seems to have found himself.  He is also a lefty and would love our new fence.  You might be able to get him for a Gausman-type contract.  Definitely some risk there.

If the Orioles are going to spend, they should spend on a TOR starter.  The idea is to win in the playoffs.  They aren't going to do that without a TOR starter.  Yes that could come from within, but there is also the value that these guys provide to a young staff.  The other consideration is there just aren't that many good pitchers available.  

[Flash- bd]

20 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

I know you identified Kiermaier as a 1 year stop gap option in CF if we traded Mullins but who is our future CF? Are we counting on Cowser? He sounds like a guy that can play CF but not be a true CF. I think Hays might be the OF to move for a starter if we can.

Hays could probably have pretty good defense in CF, no? Or do we think that as a CF his defense would be average or somewhat below average? 

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

I know you identified Kiermaier as a 1 year stop gap option in CF if we traded Mullins but who is our future CF? Are we counting on Cowser? He sounds like a guy that can play CF but not be a true CF. I think Hays might be the OF to move for a starter if we can.

I think that’s tbd.  And btw, it doesn’t have to be Kiermeier.  He was just a name I was throwing out there.

If we can use some of our other pieces to obtain a more cost effective and longer term solution at CF, I would like to see that.  

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, baltfan said:

I would go for Verlander, deGrom, or maybe Rodon if he opts out.

Verlander is old but has a new elbow.  You are going to pay a ton, but it will be for a relatively short contract.  

deGrom is sneaky old (35).  He says he is opting out.  His contract pays $30.5mm if doesn't opt out next year.  He is a little more of a risk given injury history, but the stuff is still elite.  

Rodon has been pretty elite for two years now.  He seems to have found himself.  He is also a lefty and would love our new fence.  You might be able to get him for a Gausman-type contract.  Definitely some risk there.

If the Orioles are going to spend, they should spend on a TOR starter.  The idea is to win in the playoffs.  They aren't going to do that without a TOR starter.  Yes that could come from within, but there is also the value that these guys provide to a young staff.  The other consideration is there just aren't that many good pitchers available.  

Verlander May come here.  It’s possible.

DeGrom is great but such a health risk and I get Cohen keeps him anyway.  He will probably be signing a deal like Scherzer did. 

Edited August 5, 2022 by Sports Guy

[baltfan]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Verlander May come here.  It’s possible.

DeGrom is great it such a health risk and I get Cohen keeps him anyway.  He will probably be signing a deal like Scherzer did. 

I agree that Cohen will likely spend what it takes for deGrom if he proves healthy the rest of the season.  If not, there may be a window but with some risk.

[OriolesMagic83]

27 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Syndergaard starts

2017 - 7

2018 - 25

2019 - 32

2020 - 2

2021 - 16

2022 - 15 (so far)

That's scary to me for a guy that doesn't have elite stuff anymore.

Scary would be paying him $21 million in one year or even worse signing him for multiple years.

[baltfan]

7 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Scary would be paying him $21 million in one year or even worse signing him for multiple years.

Yeah, he will definitely be looking for multiple years.  That being said, I don't think the Phillies or Angels are particularly known for making pitchers better with analytics.  It's possible the Orioles could see something that they could change. 

Edited August 5, 2022 by baltfan

[baltimoreO's22]

In a fantasy land I would say Jacob deGrom, but he will likely command a massive contract. I don't know if we need to add bats as much as we need to add pitching so I would hope to add a SP to the rotation. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

Here's the FA/opt out SP with 0.5+ fWAR by Fangraphs' Depth Chart projections (blended ZIPS and Steamer), with 2023 age and projected fWAR. The lefties are italicized. I did this manually and am assuming mutual options won't be picked up, club/vesting options will, and players will opt out/decline options (except Sale given injuries, and leaving off Kershaw, Wainwright and Greinke, who won't be leaving their teams if continuing their careers).

Jacob Degrom (35, 4.2)

Nathan Eovaldi (33, 3.7)

Carlos Rodon (30, 3.6)

Sean Manaea (31, 3.0)

Noah Syndergaard (30, 2.8)

Chris Bassit (34, 2.3)

Mike Clevinger (32, 2.1)

Zach Eflin (29, 2.0)

Jameson Taillon (31, 2.0)

Kyle Gibson (35, 1.8)

Corey Kluber (37, 1.7)

Jose Quintana (34, 1.6)

Mike Minor (35, 1.5)

Andrew Heaney (32, 1.4)

Michael Pineda (34, 1.4)

Wade Miley (36, 1.4)

Joe Ross (30, 1.2 (by 2023 ZIPS given TJS))

Taijuan Walker (30, 1.1)

Michael Wacha (31, 1.1)

Matthew Boyd (32, 1.1)

Chris Archer (34, 0.9)

Martin Perez (32, 0.8)

Drew Smyly (34, 0.8)

Tyler Anderson (33, 0.6)

[Orioles Jim]

35 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Machado can opt out after 23.  Just saying.

Hey, while we’re dreaming, 3 pages in and no one has brought up Aaron Judge?

*ducks*

[jamalshw]

I agree a name like Verlander or Rodon would be the best use of funds. We clearly need an ace atop the rotation and a short term deal for Verlander (if he opts out) would be awesome as he can be a mentor (whether vocal or just by example) to Grayson Rodriguez and the rest of the young arms. 

Given Means had Tommy John, I don't expect him back until midseason as the earliest and usually the first year back isn't quite the same level so I've more or less written him off for 2023 and he can be a bit of a boost midseason if he is back and performing (there will undoubtedly be injuries anyway). 

With that said, we have Rodriguez and Wells as the only really "sure things" in the rotation--and neither are exactly sure things. But they're two that figure to be there for sure. I don't mind having guys like Kremer, Watkins (if he's back), and Bradish fighting it out for the 5th spot with one or two others filling in the last bullpen spot. The others are depth. Hall figures in somewhere and you can probably piece together a 2-5 in the rotation with the aforementioned names, but we clearly need a #1. And I'd argue we could use a Lyles type as well. 

I doubt the Orioles go to that level for a starter, but the shorter term deals for the older, but proven, starters makes it at least possible. If you have to go big money, shorter term at least minimizes the risk a bit. Alternatively, I would want them to trade for a top of the rotation arm if they aren't willing/able to sign one. 

If it were up to me, I would make a strong push for a top of the rotation option, find another Jordan Lyles type (I think it can be done cheaper than picking up the option), and then push for Trea Turner. That, however, is a HUGE ask and I'd be happy with less, but in my ideal world, you can slide Turner in at SS, Henderson at 3B and use Urias, Mateo, Westburg, Vavra, etc. at 2B and UTL, including 1-2 of them in a trade. You then boast a lineup of: Mullins (L), Turner (R), Rutschman (S), Mountcastle (R), Santander (S), Henderson (L), Hays (R), Stowers (L), Urias (R). Now, that's a stacked lineup. 

Of course, this is all dreaming and would never happen. And perhaps you use Santander or Stowers in a trade and plug in Vavra in the OF/DH. But that lineup plus a rotation headed by Verlander, Pablo Lopez, or other top tier pitcher via trade and including G-Rod, would be amazing coupled with our bullpen. That's a big offseason shopping list, but one that would certainly energize the city and put Baltimore squarely in contention. 

 

Edited August 5, 2022 by jamalshw