Playing complimentary baseball

[Sports Guy]

The Ravens are viewed by Baltimore fans as the organization in Baltimore that tends to do no wrong.  They are usually in the playoff race, draft and develop players well, etc…they have earned the trust of fans because of years of success and titles won.  

One of the things the Ravens do so well is they play complimentary football.  Whether you like the system or not, it does work in terms of wins, at least in the regular season.  They play great special teams, which gives them good field position so often.  They have an elite running game, which can help the offense stay on the field and hopefully help keep the defense fresh.  The defense routinely used built to stop the run of other teams and that causes them to usually own time of possession.  All of the pieces work together and compliment each other well.

This year’s Orioles team is doing that.  The decision to move back the wall and MLBs decision to use the humidor has caused offense to be down and that has been an advantage to a team like the Os, who are talent challenged on the offensive side of things.  
 

The pitching has been better than expected.  Yes, we are seeing guys with results that don’t match what their stats say they should be But it’s working.  Why is it working?  Because they are playing good complimentary baseball.

According to OAA, amongst all qualified defenders. the Os have 3 of the top 60 IFers in baseball.  Mateo is 18th, Mountcastle is 31 and Urias is 60th.  (interestingly, Schoop is #1 in all of baseball in OAA)

Mullins is 16th in OAA amongst all OFers.  Guess who is #1?  Our new favorite player, Brett Phillips.

We have recently seen the framing stats and defensive numbers from Adley, whatever it is you think of those stats.

Thats 5 positions we are getting above average play from. OAA, as I mentioned, loves Phillips and McKenna is on the plus side as well.

OAA really doesn’t like Odor, Hays or Santander but overall, the defense has been fantastic.

These guys are covering ground in the new OF, playing well behind the pitchers in the IF and helping them in a way that wasn’t expected.

Now, this of course isn’t a new concept amongst teams and this is a big reason why the 2012 and 2014 teams were so good.  They played great complimentary baseball.  The starters are only so good and can only pitch so many innings, so your bullpen is important and overall, your defense has to back both of them up to help them out.  The Os BP is by far #1 in baseball in OAA.  Of course, Lopez was a big part of that but they have 5 members of their current pen that are top 40 in WPA, including 2 in the top 20.

When you ask yourself, how is this happening?  How do they keep winning. This is why.  Add in the idea that they have good team speed and this is a team playing good complimentary baseball.

[ORIOLE33]

That’s why the new Orioles are going to be better that the “pie in the face” Orioles. They pitch good enough, they have a good bullpen, but what separates them from the past Orioles is they’re not nearly as reliant on the HR and they steal bases. This brand of baseball can succeed in the postseason.

[RZNJ]

I don’t know anything about QAA but if Schoop, an aging, limited defensive player even in his prime, is #1 in baseball doesn’t that make you skeptical of the whole formula?

[sevastras]

This team has something special going, we will see how long they can keep it up. 

[Sports Guy]

If they can continue to play this way and actually add real talent to the team, they are going to be really tough to beat.

Defense will continue to be something that isn’t valued enough imo but it’s so vital to things.

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If they can continue to play this way and actually add real talent to the team, they are going to be really tough to beat.

Defense will continue to be something that isn’t valued enough imo but it’s so vital to things.

I've said this elsewhere, but if I were Elias, I'd make sure all of:

Hall

Stowers

Henderson

Rodriguez 

are on the roster and eligible for the playoffs. We'd be a different team by playoff time, but one that is more capable of going toe to toe with the big boys. I'd figure out the innings as I go.

The Rays had David Price come out of the bullpen for one of their runs. He was electric. We can do that too.

[interloper]

Honestly, it looks a lot like the formula of the Buck playoff years: excellent bullpen, very good defense. Those teams had a lot more power than this one does, but this one is making strides elsewhere like speed and OBP. 

[jabba72]

O's staff are 12th in the AL out of 15 teams in K's with 839, so they need to play very strong defense to keep all those balls in play from falling in. They are 4th in Walks allowed so that is helping their cause alot. They are 10th in FIP at 4.10. All this suggests they need a very good defense going forward. 

[Sanfran327]

I was thinking sort of along these lines earlier this morning. There is a reason why this is working the way it is. Complementary baseball is a good way to describe it. 

You can see that our philosophy with the starting pitchers is to be extremely conservative. Try to live on the edge of the strike zone (everyone does, I know), and just do your absolute best to give them nothing to hit hard. It results in a high pitch count because we don't have many (any?) starters that are really capable of attacking hitters and being aggressive in the zone with elite stuff. So we are lucky when a starter gets 15 outs, but it's also why most starters end up getting somewhere around 12-15.

Then we get into an elite bullpen, and our best bullpen arms only throw a dozen or so pitches on a given night, and that's enough to get them through their 2-4 outs. Their stuff allows them to be aggressive in the zone, and they either get the K on 4-5 pitches, or they induce weak contact for a quick out.

As SG noted, we play mostly good defense, turn a zillion double plays, and have good team speed to support the pitching staff. Very few bonehead plays defensively, which is good. Not beating ourselves and giving us a chance to stay in games.

Offensively, we are doing just enough. We aren't scoring a ton of runs, but enough to scratch out a W more often than not lately. 

This may not get us far if we do find ourselves in the post season (that tends to have a more tried and true formula), but it's working right now. 

Edited August 10, 2022 by Sanfran327

[Babkins]

Good opening post; I agree with all of it. But I’m an English teacher and an editor, and I’m finding it impossible not to point out that the word you’re looking for is complementary.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t know anything about QAA but if Schoop, an aging, limited defensive player even in his prime, is #1 in baseball doesn’t that make you skeptical of the whole formula?

OAA takes the ball's trajectory, velocity and hang time, the player's positioning prior to contact, how far the ball is going to land from the fielder's starting spot, and determines a catch likelihood based on all the data compiled in the majors over some period of time.  

So, basically, a ball hit 25' from Cedric Mullins with a hang time of 2.3 seconds has X% catch probability based on all the data of similar balls hit in the majors.  The fielder is credited or debited OAA based on how likely it was that he catches that ball.

It's exactly what you want out of a defensive metric.  I don't have any real reason to be skeptical of it. 

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Babkins said:

Good opening post; I agree with all of it. But I’m an English teacher and an editor, and I’m finding it impossible not to point out that the word you’re looking for is complementary.

Thank you.  I kept thinking to myself, this word doesn’t look right but it’s what auto correct kept reverting to.  

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, ORIOLE33 said:

That’s why the new Orioles are going to be better that the “pie in the face” Orioles. They pitch good enough, they have a good bullpen, but what separates them from the past Orioles is they’re not nearly as reliant on the HR and they steal bases. This brand of baseball can succeed in the postseason.

There's a kernel of truth in the bolded part, but it may not be as significant as you think.  The 2014 Orioles were 11th in OBP, 2nd in SLG, 6th in runs, and 1st in homers.  The 2022 Orioles are 11th in OBP, 7th in SLG, 7th in HRs, but also 9th in runs.  So they're about the same in getting on base, worse in homers, but also they don't score as many runs relative to the league.

Yes, they are about 25 runs ahead on the bases.  2022 so far is +12 in baserunning runs, tops in the AL.  The '14 team was last at -13.

But I don't think there's any evidence that you win more in the postseason with fewer homers and more steals.  In fact, since you generally face better pitchers in the postseason sequential run scoring involving getting guys on base, stealing and getting several hits per inning is less likely to be successful than just hitting homers. However they get there you'd rather have the 6th-best scoring team come October than the 9th-best.

[RZNJ]

25 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

OAA takes the ball's trajectory, velocity and hang time, the player's positioning prior to contact, how far the ball is going to land from the fielder's starting spot, and determines a catch likelihood based on all the data compiled in the majors over some period of time.  

So, basically, a ball hit 25' from Cedric Mullins with a hang time of 2.3 seconds has X% catch probability based on all the data of similar balls hit in the majors.  The fielder is credited or debited OAA based on how likely it was that he catches that ball.

It's exactly what you want out of a defensive metric.  I don't have any real reason to be skeptical of it. 

Schoop had average range, at best, when he was 25.  What conclusion do you draw from him being #1 in QAA?

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Schoop had average range, at best, when he was 25.  What conclusion do you draw from him being #1 in QAA?

OAA..not QAA.