I don't want to become the Rays

[winning]

6 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Hell, I think this is a good thread.

We have a million threads talking about trading guys for starting pitching. Signing starting pitching. Drafting more starting pitching.

This guys says we need to make it happen even if it costs a lot. Basically, be the Rays but with more ability to retain talent or pay for need.

Isn't that what we all want? Sometimes it feels like people come here to shoot down anything they can.

 

Since pitchers are much riskier draft picks than hitters are why not trade a couple 1st rounders for a veteran ace? I'm just saying if you got the farm system then sometimes you just got take a risk and go and get a top guy.

[Aglets]

I think we all want to "become" the Baltimore Orioles that win championships.  Distinct from the Baltimore Orioles that haven't won a pennant in almost 40 years.   You can do it the way the Rays have, the way the Yankees have, the way the Dodgers have........... there are multiple paths to do it.

We took Elias away from the Astros..............guess whose blueprint he is trying to follow (or improve on) here?

Will people here be ok with that?   The Astros have made it to the ALCS for 5 straight years, winning 3 pennants, and 1 World Series.   Not saying we are guaranteed to have that level of success at all..............as people say, there is a lot of luck when it comes to success in short series.   But I would be..........pretty pleased if we are in that ballpark.

[LookinUp]

6 minutes ago, winning said:

 

Since pitchers are much riskier draft picks than hitters are why not trade a couple 1st rounders for a veteran ace? I'm just saying if you got the farm system then sometimes you just got take a risk and go and get a top guy.

To be fair, I think most here are on board with this within some level of reasonableness. The problem is who are you moving. Many here (looking in the mirror), think Cowser is second to only Henderson in terms of our future hitters. Certainly going to be better than the 3 guys we have in the outfield now. Do you move him? Do you get that pitcher without moving a top guy like that? Can you put 6-8 second tier guys together to get that pitcher. Is that smart? 

It's easier said than done, and it definitely comes with tradeoffs.

[Orioles0615]

40 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The Yankees run a $200+ million dollar team full of big name superstars and future HOFers out there every single year but have only won a single championship in the last 2+ decades, in 2009.

The MLB playoffs are a crapshoot. Just get in.

Yea just just try to get in.... Oh except for this year because we don't "match" up well. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, winning said:

 

They also won in 96, 98, 99 and 2000. There are obvious advantages to acquiring a veteran ace starter. In fact, most teams that win the World Series have 1 or even 2 veteran aces that they did not draft. People can talk all they want about homegrown talent and yes that is the foundation to any team with a payroll under $200 million. But you need pitching to win. It's great tearing the cover off the ball. That's awesome. End of the day you need to pitch.

It's a little odd that you would poo-poo "homegrown talent" in a post talking about the Yankees dynasty of the 90s, which was so successful due in large part to...homegrown talent.

Jeter, Posada, Rivera, Petitte, Williams, etc.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, Orioles0615 said:

Yea just just try to get in.... Oh except for this year because we don't "match" up well. 

I mean, Jordan Lyles would be our Game 1 starter in a playoff series.

[Orioles0615]

7 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I mean, Jordan Lyles would be our Game 1 starter in a playoff series.

Yea and we started Joe Saunders in an elimination game against prime Yu Darvish 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

Yea and we started Joe Saunders in an elimination game against prime Yu Darvish 

Jordan Lyles wishes he was Joe Saunders, who actually had some decent seasons on his resume.

[ChipTait]

7 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

Yea and we started Joe Saunders in an elimination game against prime Yu Darvish 

I was at that game!  

[deward]

10 minutes ago, Aglets said:

I think we all want to "become" the Baltimore Orioles that win championships.  Distinct from the Baltimore Orioles that haven't won a pennant in almost 40 years.   You can do it the way the Rays have, the way the Yankees have, the way the Dodgers have........... there are multiple paths to do it.

We took Elias away from the Astros..............guess whose blueprint he is trying to follow (or improve on) here?

Will people here be ok with that?   The Astros have made it to the ALCS for 5 straight years, winning 3 pennants, and 1 World Series.   Not saying we are guaranteed to have that level of success at all..............as people say, there is a lot of luck when it comes to success in short series.   But I would be..........pretty pleased if we are in that ballpark.

To be fair, the Rays have never won a championship. The Moneyball A's never won one either.

I posted this in another thread, but the average payroll position of every WS winner since 2000 has been 9th in the league. All but 3 were in the top half of the league. The lowest was the 2003 Marlins at 25th (possibly the closest comp to the O's as of today - but they haven't been to the playoffs since). When the Astros won in 2017, they were already back up to 18th and climbing steadily. While it's not necessary to have a Yankees or Dodgers size payroll, I don't think it's just random chance that only one team in the bottom 10 in payroll has won a championship in the past 22 years. 

I'm totally fine with following the Astros model (I mean, I wasn't really fine with the complete teardown and neglect of the big league team part of it, but that's done now). They built around a talented, young core and have paid to keep some and judiciously swapped out others when strong replacements were available. While I would certainly rather win games like the Rays have than lose them, my biggest gripe as a fan would be the constant roster instability. It would be very hard to get excited about Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson knowing that they'll be traded to the Dodgers in 3-4 years because the team can't afford to keep them around. 

[Aristotelian]

I'd much rather be the Rays than a wannabe version of the Red Sox that has zero world series appearances since 1983. I do think there is an opportunity to combine the Rays pipeline approach with a higher payroll

[LA2]

8 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Jordan Lyles wishes he was Joe Saunders, who actually had some decent seasons on his resume.

Career FIP: Saunders 4.65 / Lyles 4.69

Career WHIP: Saunders 1.421 / Lyles 1.435

OPS-against in Rangers Ballpark: Saunders 1.031 / Lyles .869

[Aglets]

7 minutes ago, deward said:

To be fair, the Rays have never won a championship. The Moneyball A's never won one either.

I posted this in another thread, but the average payroll position of every WS winner since 2000 has been 9th in the league. All but 3 were in the top half of the league. The lowest was the 2003 Marlins at 25th (possibly the closest comp to the O's as of today - but they haven't been to the playoffs since). When the Astros won in 2017, they were already back up to 18th and climbing steadily. While it's not necessary to have a Yankees or Dodgers size payroll, I don't think it's just random chance that only one team in the bottom 10 in payroll has won a championship in the past 22 years. 

I'm totally fine with following the Astros model (I mean, I wasn't really fine with the complete teardown and neglect of the big league team part of it, but that's done now). They built around a talented, young core and have paid to keep some and judiciously swapped out others when strong replacements were available. While I would certainly rather win games like the Rays have than lose them, my biggest gripe as a fan would be the constant roster instability. It would be very hard to get excited about Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson knowing that they'll be traded to the Dodgers in 3-4 years because the team can't afford to keep them around. 

Totally agree with most of this.  I do not think we will be the 30th ranked team in payroll for much longer.  And there is definitely a correlation between wins and payroll, especially in the regular season.  The Dodgers won 8 straight division titles before plummeting all the way to 2nd last year......(despite winning 106!).    I don't see us having Dodger-sized payrolls but I see us getting close to that 9th place area that you mentioned.    Now will that happen by 2023?   Can't say for sure.....that would be a huge shift.  We will have to see.

[DrungoHazewood]

19 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Jordan Lyles wishes he was Joe Saunders, who actually had some decent seasons on his resume.

The Orioles had Saunders in 2012.  From 2010-2012 Saunders was 30-43, 4.07 ERA, 99 ERA+, 4.50 FIP, 5.1 K/9.  On most playoff teams he was a mid-to-back rotation starter.

Since 2019 Lyles is 32-35, 4.88, 88 ERA+, 4.98 FIP, 7.7 K/9.  He's almost on Saunders' level, but not quite.

The Yanks' top five starters each have an ERA about half a run a game better than Lyles, or more.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

7 minutes ago, deward said:

To be fair, the Rays have never won a championship. The Moneyball A's never won one either.

I posted this in another thread, but the average payroll position of every WS winner since 2000 has been 9th in the league. All but 3 were in the top half of the league. The lowest was the 2003 Marlins at 25th (possibly the closest comp to the O's as of today - but they haven't been to the playoffs since). When the Astros won in 2017, they were already back up to 18th and climbing steadily. While it's not necessary to have a Yankees or Dodgers size payroll, I don't think it's just random chance that only one team in the bottom 10 in payroll has won a championship in the past 22 years. 

I'm totally fine with following the Astros model (I mean, I wasn't really fine with the complete teardown and neglect of the big league team part of it, but that's done now). They built around a talented, young core and have paid to keep some and judiciously swapped out others when strong replacements were available. While I would certainly rather win games like the Rays have than lose them, my biggest gripe as a fan would be the constant roster instability. It would be very hard to get excited about Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson knowing that they'll be traded to the Dodgers in 3-4 years because the team can't afford to keep them around. 

I think we are going to operate closer to the Astros model than the Rays model- both have generally excellent talent pipelines and player development, but the Astros can make a calculated splash in free agency, which I believe the Orioles will do when the time is right, though like the Astros, I believe they will eschew long-term mega-deals.

7 minutes ago, LA2 said:

Career FIP: Saunders 4.65 / Lyles 4.69

Career WHIP: Saunders 1.421 / Lyles 1.435

OPS-against in Rangers Ballpark: Saunders 1.031 / Lyles .869

Saunders: 8.4 Career WAR in 10 seasons

Lyles: -1.4 Career WAR in 12 seasons