The Lopez trade is costing the O's wins

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not..it’s 3.67 although that includes Lopez providing a lot of innings.

But they are relievers and things can fluctuate fast and bad innings can greatly effect things. 
 

This isn’t a talented group.  As a group, they don’t get a lot of Ks and don’t miss bats.  They rely on the defense behind them.  

Put it another way.  Most of the guys in the pen could be DFA’ed by June of next year and it wouldn’t be surprising at all.

You may be overstating the case a little.  But I'll pull some more data:

They're 22nd in bullpen K/9, about 0.5 behind average. But within a few tenths of the Rays and Blue Jays.

The pen is 8th in MLB in K:BB ratio.

Fourth in the majors in BB/9.

Eighth in HR/9.

11th in BABIP, so combining that with the defense it's not like they're riding some ridiculously unsustainable luck on balls in play.

Yes, this is with Lopez through July, but he has about 1/10th of the pen's total innings.  Pull him out and the difference isn't going to be large.

So I think this is a foundation for a pretty good bullpen, especially if Elias and team can continue to add pieces over the winter.

[Frobby]

We are 16-9 during August.   13-0 when scoring 4+ runs, 3-9 when scoring 3 or less.   I’d say (1) the team is doing just fine, thank you, and (2) to the extent they’re losing sometimes, it’s because the offense is inconsistent.   Overall, they’ve played .640 baseball this month and that’s plenty good.   They’ve won their last three series.   Teams don’t win every game.  

[glenn__davis]

I mean it's one of those things that's just impossible to know.  A lot probably depends on what you think about Lopez.  

I was not a big believer.  I mean I loved that he had a great start but just not a believer in him long term.

He hasn't been outstanding with the Twins.  Maybe if he stayed here he blows a few of the games that Felix saved.

On the other hand I think there's no question that the pen isn't as deep without him but to Can of Corn's point the pen was going to regress some with or without Lopez.

Gun to my head I think the record with Lopez would be about the same, with a game or 2 variation eithr way.  I think we're missing Mancini more right now given the struggles of the offense.

Edited August 29, 2022 by glenn__davis

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You may be overstating the case a little.  But I'll pull some more data:

They're 22nd in bullpen K/9, about 0.5 behind average. But within a few tenths of the Rays and Blue Jays.

The pen is 8th in MLB in K:BB ratio.

Fourth in the majors in BB/9.

Eighth in HR/9.

11th in BABIP, so combining that with the defense it's not like they're riding some ridiculously unsustainable luck on balls in play.

Yes, this is with Lopez through July, but he has about 1/10th of the pen's total innings.  Pull him out and the difference isn't going to be large.

So I think this is a foundation for a pretty good bullpen, especially if Elias and team can continue to add pieces over the winter.

But look at some of the individual guys.

Akin has an FIP of 3.82.  He has been awful this month and not that great really since May.  242 BABIP, which isn’t likely to be matched next year.  
 

Kreihbel has a 4.59 FIP.  A 241 BABIP.  He is also trending down.

Those 2 plus Lopez represent about 1/3 of the BP IP.  You also have the guys who just rotate in and out and that will continue next year and those guys tend to not be great.

Their LOB% is over 3% higher than league average.  If that trends more to league average, that will effect things as well.

Now, JBat is for real.  Perez and Tate show them to be 3ish ERA guys although let’s face it, they haven’t exactly been above average relievers in the past.  Baker’s FIP is far better than his actual ERA although his xERA is closer to his ERA than his FIP.  I agree that, if they are kept, thy should be able to be counted on next year to at least be average relievers.  
 

That said, I do think they need to add 1-2 arms.  It’s possible those arms are guys like Kremer or Bradish but that obviously depends on other factors.

Im not entering this offseason overly confident in this pen.  The lack of missed bats and Ks concerns me.  I do like the walk rate and the wall has helped all of the pitchers, so it’s possible they can get by and still be good but I don’t want to count on that. 
 

I don’t feel, unlike the mid 2010 teams, that we have that elite shut down back end of the pen.  While Bautista should stay at that level imo, we don’t have multiple guys like that.  Those pens had Brach, ODay, Johnson and Britton..Miller for the half year.

We don’t have multiple shut down, blow you away, get Ks guys.  That’s why Lopez was such a loss.  We had 2 of those guys at the end of the pen.  Was really helpful.

[jamalshw]

12 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

I mean it's one of those things that's just impossible to know.  A lot probably depends on what you think about Lopez.  

I was not a big believer.  I mean I loved that he had a great start but just not a believer in him long term.

He hasn't been outstanding with the Twins.  Maybe if he stayed here he blows a few of the games that Felix saved.

On the other hand I think there's no question that the pen isn't as deep without him but to Can of Corn's point the pen was going to regress some with or without Lopez.

Gun to my head I think the record with Lopez would be about the same, with a game or 2 variation eithr way.  I think we're missing Mancini more right now given the struggles of the offense.

I think this is probably accurate. Overall, I didn't have an issue with either trade. I was/am thrilled the team is in the playoff hunt, but don't really buy into this team as a true contender just yet. It will be amazing if the sneak in as the final wildcard, but the plan was always towards 2023 and beyond and this season was more about speeding up the timeline rather than actually competing. 

I do think we are missing Mancini more as he lengthened the lineup. I think that may be mitigated a bit more if Stowers gets more playing time. I wasn't really sure why we didn't see him in there yesterday. 

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t feel, unlike the mid 2010 teams, that we have that elite shut down back end of the pen.  While Bautista should stay at that level imo, we don’t have multiple guys like that.  Those pens had Brach, ODay, Johnson and Britton..Miller for the half year.

We don’t have multiple shut down, blow you away, get Ks guys.  That’s why Lopez was such a loss.  We had 2 of those guys at the end of the pen.  Was really helpful.

I'm sure you remember that Johnson was a highly controversial figure.  The center of the Buck save rule controversy, May of 2013 he blew three saves in about a week and half the board wanted him released. Never had over 7.5 K/9.  

Even the 2014 team had Brian Matusz (3.48 ERA as a LOOGY), Ryan Webb (6.8 K/9, 3.83 ERA), Tommy Hunter (45 Ks in 60 innings), TJ McFarland (5.2 K/9).  Andrew Miller pitched 20 innings, less than Evan Meek (who?).

Brad Brach had 62 innings, six homers, 25 walks, 54 Ks, 3.18 ERA, 3.90 FIP.  Dillon Tate has 60 innings, 10 walks 51 Ks, four homers, 2.70 ERA, 3.09 FIP.

Britton, O'Day, and that group is pretty comparable to Bautista, Perez and the rest.

[Ohfan67]

46 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We are 16-9 during August.   13-0 when scoring 4+ runs, 3-9 when scoring 3 or less.   I’d say (1) the team is doing just fine, thank you, and (2) to the extent they’re losing sometimes, it’s because the offense is inconsistent.   Overall, they’ve played .640 baseball this month and that’s plenty good.   They’ve won their last three series.   Teams don’t win every game.  

Good stuff. The Orioles OPS for August was 8th in MLB and runs scored was 11th. The offense was actually decent in August. The team is playing well.

 

Winning seems to have unleashed a lot of angst in bird land. 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'm sure you remember that Johnson was a highly controversial figure.  The center of the Buck save rule controversy, May of 2013 he blew three saves in about a week and half the board wanted him released. Never had over 7.5 K/9.  

Even the 2014 team had Brian Matusz (3.48 ERA as a LOOGY), Ryan Webb (6.8 K/9, 3.83 ERA), Tommy Hunter (45 Ks in 60 innings), TJ McFarland (5.2 K/9).  Andrew Miller pitched 20 innings, less than Evan Meek (who?).

Brad Brach had 62 innings, six homers, 25 walks, 54 Ks, 3.18 ERA, 3.90 FIP.  Dillon Tate has 60 innings, 10 walks 51 Ks, four homers, 2.70 ERA, 3.09 FIP.

Britton, O'Day, and that group is pretty comparable to Bautista, Perez and the rest.

Britton and ODay were much more reliable imo.  They were both elite guys.  We have one elite pitcher, not 2.  Brach had other years that were better.  2014 was his first year here.  Now, can one of these guys make that leap?  It’s possible.  I could see Perez become more dominant.

But Perez is 105th in the league in K rate of those relievers who have thrown at least 40 innings.  There are 155ish pitchers that have done that.  And his BB rate is 106th in that group.  
 

If he can get the Ks up and lower the walks, like Brach did here, Perez could become that other elite, shut down guy.

But I think you need 3 of those types of relievers in todays game.  The Os have 1 and then they have a lot of shaky guys.

And btw, the reason JJ was controversial was because he didn’t get Ks and didn’t miss bats and relied on the defense behind him. That’s my issue with these guys.

Edited August 29, 2022 by Sports Guy

[DrungoHazewood]

I forgot that in 2012 Jim Johnson had 51 saves and just 41 strikeouts.  One of 17 pitchers in history with at least 15 saves and more saves than strikeouts, and the most saves on that list.

Rk             Player SO SVV Season Age Team Lg W L  W-L% Dec  ERA
1         Jim Johnson 41  51   2012  29  BAL AL 2 1  .667   3 2.49
2       Brian Fuentes 46  48   2009  33  LAA AL 1 5  .167   6 3.93
3       Mike Williams 43  46   2002  33  PIT NL 2 6  .250   8 2.93
4         Bob Wickman 41  45   2005  36  CLE AL 0 4  .000   4 2.47
5     Dan Quisenberry 41  44   1984  31  KCR AL 6 3  .667   9 2.64
6           Jose Mesa 37  43   2004  38  PIT NL 5 2  .714   7 3.25
7        Danny Graves 40  41   2004  30  CIN NL 1 6  .143   7 3.95
8          Danny Kolb 21  39   2004  29  MIL NL 0 4  .000   4 2.98
9          Todd Jones 33  38   2007  39  DET AL 1 4  .200   5 4.26
10         Todd Jones 28  37   2006  38  DET AL 2 6  .250   8 3.94
11     Mariano Rivera 36  36   1998  28  NYY AL 3 0 1.000   3 1.91
12   Dustin Hermanson 33  34   2005  32  CHW AL 2 4  .333   6 2.04
13      Troy Percival 33  33   2004  34  ANA AL 2 3  .400   5 2.90
14      Braden Looper 27  28   2005  30  NYM NL 4 7  .364  11 3.94
15         Todd Jones 14  18   2008  40  DET AL 4 1  .800   5 4.97
16         Dave Smith 16  17   1991  36  CHC NL 0 6  .000   6 6.00
17   Russ Christopher 14  17   1948  30  CLE AL 3 2  .600   5 2.90

 

[LA2]

16 hours ago, Fiver6565 said:

Just gave up four combined runs in three games vs the best team in the AL and the Lopez trade is a problem?  That’s a bit reactionary given the timing of the post. The BP is fine but they aren’t going to be perfect every game and they pretty much have to be for us to win because we can never seem to get more than a run or two ahead.  Silly post. 

ftfy

Edited August 29, 2022 by LA2

[DrungoHazewood]

14 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Good stuff. The Orioles OPS for August was 8th in MLB and runs scored was 11th. The offense was actually decent in August. The team is playing well.

Winning seems to have unleashed a lot of angst in bird land. 

Hold onto your hat!  Cleveland has the same record as the O's (one less loss), and each of their probable starters has a significantly better ERA than their O's counterpart.  But I get a feeling that anything short of a Baltimore sweep is going to bring out torches and pitchforks.

[Natty]

Maybe this is the problem...

Team batting .237/.305/.391/.696 

[LA2]

16 hours ago, dystopia said:

As someone who was thrilled with what we got for Mancini, I will never understand the Jorge Lopez trade. It still does not make any sense.

What about what we received for Mancini thrilled you? Not disagreeing: just curious.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I forgot that in 2012 Jim Johnson had 51 saves and just 41 strikeouts.  One of 17 pitchers in history with at least 15 saves and more saves than strikeouts, and the most saves on that list.

Rk             Player SO SVV Season Age Team Lg W L  W-L% Dec  ERA
1         Jim Johnson 41  51   2012  29  BAL AL 2 1  .667   3 2.49
2       Brian Fuentes 46  48   2009  33  LAA AL 1 5  .167   6 3.93
3       Mike Williams 43  46   2002  33  PIT NL 2 6  .250   8 2.93
4         Bob Wickman 41  45   2005  36  CLE AL 0 4  .000   4 2.47
5     Dan Quisenberry 41  44   1984  31  KCR AL 6 3  .667   9 2.64
6           Jose Mesa 37  43   2004  38  PIT NL 5 2  .714   7 3.25
7        Danny Graves 40  41   2004  30  CIN NL 1 6  .143   7 3.95
8          Danny Kolb 21  39   2004  29  MIL NL 0 4  .000   4 2.98
9          Todd Jones 33  38   2007  39  DET AL 1 4  .200   5 4.26
10         Todd Jones 28  37   2006  38  DET AL 2 6  .250   8 3.94
11     Mariano Rivera 36  36   1998  28  NYY AL 3 0 1.000   3 1.91
12   Dustin Hermanson 33  34   2005  32  CHW AL 2 4  .333   6 2.04
13      Troy Percival 33  33   2004  34  ANA AL 2 3  .400   5 2.90
14      Braden Looper 27  28   2005  30  NYM NL 4 7  .364  11 3.94
15         Todd Jones 14  18   2008  40  DET AL 4 1  .800   5 4.97
16         Dave Smith 16  17   1991  36  CHC NL 0 6  .000   6 6.00
17   Russ Christopher 14  17   1948  30  CLE AL 3 2  .600   5 2.90

 

Seventeen seasons not pitchers.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Natty said:

Maybe this is the problem...

Team batting .237/.305/.391/.696 

No question.  The team just needs a lot more talent.  Love the year they have had but they need to add a lot.

Luckily, a lot of that a lot should be able to be filled from within.