Running on contact

[Big Al]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don’t see the issue with AR holding up to see if the ball made it through. Now, he was quite a bit off third when the ball was hit.

But if he makes the defender look him back to third, maybe the worst thing is that he’s late on the throw to first and they’ve got the bases loaded. Or he makes the out at first and there’s still 2nd and 3rd. 

This. + If he already has a lead off third, make the fielder look at him before throwing to first. Once the fielder commits a throw to first, then break for home. Now the 1st baseman has to catch the ball seeing the runner heading for home out of the corner of his eye  and then make a perfect throw to the plate. 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Big Al said:

This. + If he already has a lead off third, make the fielder look at him before throwing to first. Once the fielder commits a throw to first, then break for home. Now the 1st baseman has to catch the ball seeing the runner heading for home out of the corner of his eye  and then make a perfect throw to the plate. 

That has less chance of working than the contact play.   

[Sports Guy]

I can see it either way.

It takes a perfect throw and tag to get the batter out.  I’m ok with putting the pressure on the defense with most of the offensive players on the team.

 

[bpilktree]

Both times this series the fielder has mad a nice grab and the throw was accurate yet both times Hyde has had his replay team look at it so it was very close even with them making perfect throw.  That tells me it is worth the gamble.  

[SilverRocket]

The main difference with 1st+3rd vs 2nd+3rd with 2 outs is when a single is hit. I would expect Gunnar to hit a single something like 12-15% of the time. If the odds of scoring are better than that then I like going for it. This one feels around break-even to me but I don't hate it and it didn't end up hurting us in the end.

Edited September 4, 2022 by SilverRocket

[Oriole1940]

I have always believed that the step or two you might gain by running on contact was not worth the risk of running into an out at a base or home.  Not second guessing here, as I have always believed that.  When you have a good lead, maybe okay, but when the game is still in doubt, no.

[SilverRocket]

Ultimately this is just one of those situations that looks much worse than it actually is, because if you fail 80% of the time, it's still the right thing to do.

[Pickles]

This team has been an aggressive baserunning team in general.  Yes, it's the steals with Mateo and Mullins, but they consistently take the extra base and pressure the defense.  Nobody ever starts one of these threads after somebody takes an extra base.

[NashLumber]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

On the year, in 211 chances, the O’s have scored with a runner on 3B and less than two out 55.0% of the time, fifth in the league and better than league average 51.7%.   

They’ve made an out at home plate on a non-force play 15 times (16 now), which is fifth most in the league.  League average is 12.   

Overall, I’ll take the trade off.  

 

Speaking as just a casual fan, but where does one find those stats? I don't subscribe to any advanced metric sites and mainly look at Baseball Reference when curious. I just don't know where to even start on such a deep dive. 

Edited September 4, 2022 by NashLumber

[Frobby]

45 minutes ago, NashLumber said:

Speaking as just a casual fan, but where does one find those stats? I don't subscribe to any advanced metric sites and mainly look at Baseball Reference when curious. I just don't know where to even start on such a deep dive. 

This stuff is found on baseball-reference.com, which has all kinds of obscure information If you poke around in it.  

The stats on success with a runner on 3B and less than two out are found here (scroll towards the right): https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022-situational-batting.shtml

The stats on making outs at home are found here (see the column labeled “OOBHm”: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022-baserunning-batting.shtml

 

[Big Al]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

That has less chance of working than the contact play.   

That's what conventional wisdom would say, because the scenario I suggested is rarely, if ever executed.  However, sometimes I wonder if this is just a case of "managing by the book".  In the OP scenario, only a perfect throw by the third baseman or SS and tag are required.  In my scenario, the 3B or SS must make a good throw from the left side of the infield to first.  The 1B must then catch and make a perfect throw home (with a runner bearing down on him and 1Bs don't generally have the best throwing arms).  Then the catcher must still make the catch and tag.  It just seems like a lot more time and moving parts.  

[NashLumber]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This stuff is found on baseball-reference.com, which has all kinds of obscure information If you poke around in it.  

The stats on success with a runner on 3B and less than two out are found here (scroll towards the right): https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022-situational-batting.shtml

The stats on making outs at home are found here (see the column labeled “OOBHm”: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022-baserunning-batting.shtml

 

Thank you! I'll probably be up all night now that I know where this is. 

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, Big Al said:

That's what conventional wisdom would say, because the scenario I suggested is rarely, if ever executed.  However, sometimes I wonder if this is just a case of "managing by the book".  In the OP scenario, only a perfect throw by the third baseman or SS and tag are required.  In my scenario, the 3B or SS must make a good throw from the left side of the infield to first.  The 1B must then catch and make a perfect throw home (with a runner bearing down on him and 1Bs don't generally have the best throwing arms).  Then the catcher must still make the catch and tag.  It just seems like a lot more time and moving parts.  

We’ll, if it works so well, why do you almost never see it?   In fact, when a ball is hit to SS with a runner on 2nd, that runner almost never attempts to go to 3B on the throw.   Once the runner stops his momentum the ball travels pretty fast.   I would think that in the last 100 years some team would have employed that strategy if it worked well.

Its not like it isn’t tried from time to time.

Edited September 4, 2022 by RZNJ

[Morgan423]

I think it's sometimes worth the risk it that particular situation and some others like it, if the circumstances are favorable.

Guys on second and third and an out, you hold the runner: you end up with second and third two outs.

If you send the runner and they throw him out at home, it's corners and two outs instead. 

So you're trading an extra guy in scoring position for the next hitter...  to try to score now instead, on a play where you force them to execute well.  So in my mind, the decision rests entirely on how fast the dude on third is, and who's on deck and will be the next guy to hit.  These two things are going to going to inform the decision to go or hold one way or the other.

[linedrive]

This running on contact thing has been bugging me for most of the season. The first time I noticed it I liked it because they were being aggressive, even though they made an out at the plate. I figured if they didn't try, then they probably wouldn't score anyway. But the more I see it the less I like it. They're not fooling anyone. Their opponents seem to be ready for the play at the plate, and I don't recall seeing the O's pull this off successfully. So I'd rather the runner on third stay put and hope the next batter gets a two-out hit.