After Historic 2022 - Should The O's Play Prospects Next Year or Acquire Players Who Will "Block" Them?

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Perhaps... but Vavra, Mateo and Urias don't seem to be a solid plan B. More like status quo. And with Elias saying the team is ready to take a big next step, I'm thinking he won't want to settle for status quo. 

Again... strengthen the lineup in 1B/OF/DH and it lessens the downside risk of Ortiz/Westburg falling flat.  

Well of course you strengthen other areas but those players as other options and back ups are good things.  That’s very good depth.

[DrungoHazewood]

7 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

If you are going to shoot me down, when I am responding to another poster's question, at least make an attempt at backing up your visceral response. Why is 3 years for Rizzo "Gross?" Is it his age, his injury history? The typical history of players who are well past their prime. Help me out.

Gross is not how I'd phrase it, but I'm very, very wary of signing 33-year-old 1B/DH types to multi-year free agent deals. Especially when he's coming off a season as good as anything he's done since his mid 20s.  And he's missed 20-30 games.  He'll be looking for something like a 4/75 deal, I'd guess.  In 3-4 seasons do you really want a 36-year-old first baseman who's likely to be playing 100 games and hitting .215 while collecting nearly $20M a year?

Rizzo is having a good year and has been worth 2.6 wins so far.  Mountcastle is having an off year and is worth 1.2.  Mountcastle is essentially free, and his batted ball metrics point towards him having better seasons.  Rizzo will probably decline from here on out and cost nearly $20M a year.  

My opinion is that you're writing a check for $80M or so to maybe get a theoretical win or two over what's already here, with a decent chance Rizzo isn't any better than Mountcastle over the next 2, 3, 4 years.

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Gross is not how I'd phrase it, but I'm very, very wary of signing 33-year-old 1B/DH types to multi-year free agent deals. Especially when he's coming off a season as good as anything he's done since his mid 20s.  And he's missed 20-30 games.  He'll be looking for something like a 4/75 deal, I'd guess.  In 3-4 seasons do you really want a 36-year-old first baseman who's likely to be playing 100 games and hitting .215 while collecting nearly $20M a year?

Rizzo is having a good year and has been worth 2.6 wins so far.  Mountcastle is having an off year and is worth 1.2.  Mountcastle is essentially free, and his batted ball metrics point towards him having better seasons.  Rizzo will probably decline from here on out and cost nearly $20M a year.  

My opinion is that you're writing a check for $80M or so to maybe get a theoretical win or two over what's already here, with a decent chance Rizzo isn't any better than Mountcastle over the next 2, 3, 4 years.

I agree. He would not be my first, second or third choice. 

[Jagwar]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well of course you strengthen other areas but those players as other options and back ups are good things.  That’s very good depth.

Agreed. If Elias can execute signings and trades to bolster the lineup at other positions of need, I believe an infield of Henderson, Ortiz and Westburg is the way to go. Maybe a few other utility signings to minor league contracts for depth?

[eddie83]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Gross is not how I'd phrase it, but I'm very, very wary of signing 33-year-old 1B/DH types to multi-year free agent deals. Especially when he's coming off a season as good as anything he's done since his mid 20s.  And he's missed 20-30 games.  He'll be looking for something like a 4/75 deal, I'd guess.  In 3-4 seasons do you really want a 36-year-old first baseman who's likely to be playing 100 games and hitting .215 while collecting nearly $20M a year?

Rizzo is having a good year and has been worth 2.6 wins so far.  Mountcastle is having an off year and is worth 1.2.  Mountcastle is essentially free, and his batted ball metrics point towards him having better seasons.  Rizzo will probably decline from here on out and cost nearly $20M a year.  

My opinion is that you're writing a check for $80M or so to maybe get a theoretical win or two over what's already here, with a decent chance Rizzo isn't any better than Mountcastle over the next 2, 3, 4 years.

This team is short on RH hitters. I would rather they go after Abreu and play him at DH. Of course he is old as well. 

[Natty]

On 9/18/2022 at 10:35 AM, OriolesMagic83 said:

  I'm not expecting a $200 million payroll

It's a simple mathematical equation. We spend that kind of money, like the best teams do, and we can compete. But only if we pick the best players for the money. But we are not even going to come close with the money part. 

[Morgan423]

Several people in this thread saying "trade Mateo", but for me, it's really hard to get rid of that speed and defense entirely. 

I still think we should convert him into our utility guy when we're ready to plug another option like Henderson in there to start.  I see Mateo as being able to start fairly often around the field, and he'll be able to give plenty of rest days to quite a few of our starters over the course of the season.

[RZNJ]

6 hours ago, eddie83 said:

This team is short on RH hitters. I would rather they go after Abreu and play him at DH. Of course he is old as well. 

How are we short on RH hitters?  The only LH only starters we have right now are Henderson and Mullins.   Next year, Stowers could be another.

Knowing that Rustchman is only going to catch a 110-120 games and DH another 40 kind of makes the idea of getting a full time DH a bad fit.   If they keep the current OF and mix Stowers and McKenna in, they can rotate some of those guys through the DH spot.   Having a full year of Henderson and Rutschman will help.   Replacing Odor with Ortiz or Westburg should be a improvement offensively.    Hays and Mountcastle are both good bets to improve at least a little next year.

[eddie83]

Just now, RZNJ said:

How are we short on RH hitters?  The only LH only starters we have right now are Henderson and Mullins.   Next year, Stowers could be another.

Knowing that Rustchman is only going to catch a 110-120 games and DH another 40 kind of makes the idea of getting a full time DH a bad fit.   If they keep the current OF and mix Stowers and McKenna in, they can rotate some of those guys through the DH spot.   Having a full year of Henderson and Rutschman will help.   Replacing Odor with Ortiz or Westburg should be a improvement offensively.    Hays and Mountcastle are both good bets to improve at least a little next year.

Good ones. 
 

I am a big fan of Hays but that is no sure bet. 
 

[DrungoHazewood]

19 hours ago, eddie83 said:

This team is short on RH hitters. I would rather they go after Abreu and play him at DH. Of course he is old as well. 

If you can get Abreu on a one- or two-year deal (because he's already 35) I'd think about it.  That's a lot more appealing to me than Rizzo on a longer contract.  There's really no such thing as a crippling one-year contract.

[Sports Guy]

13 hours ago, eddie83 said:

Good ones. 
 

I am a big fan of Hays but that is no sure bet. 
 

Yea I don’t see how Hays is a GOOD bet to improve.  Agree there is a chance but not sure how high that  chance is.

[emmett16]

On 9/20/2022 at 8:25 AM, DrungoHazewood said:

Gross is not how I'd phrase it, but I'm very, very wary of signing 33-year-old 1B/DH types to multi-year free agent deals. Especially when he's coming off a season as good as anything he's done since his mid 20s.  And he's missed 20-30 games.  He'll be looking for something like a 4/75 deal, I'd guess.  In 3-4 seasons do you really want a 36-year-old first baseman who's likely to be playing 100 games and hitting .215 while collecting nearly $20M a year?

Rizzo is having a good year and has been worth 2.6 wins so far.  Mountcastle is having an off year and is worth 1.2.  Mountcastle is essentially free, and his batted ball metrics point towards him having better seasons.  Rizzo will probably decline from here on out and cost nearly $20M a year.  

My opinion is that you're writing a check for $80M or so to maybe get a theoretical win or two over what's already here, with a decent chance Rizzo isn't any better than Mountcastle over the next 2, 3, 4 years.

And he put up those numbers this year playing 81 games in a Little League field made especially for LHBs.   Granted OPACY is a cozy place for LHBs, but it’s no yankee stadium.  

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If you can get Abreu on a one- or two-year deal (because he's already 35) I'd think about it.  That's a lot more appealing to me than Rizzo on a longer contract.  There's really no such thing as a crippling one-year contract.

Abreu would be my choice, also.  He’s a menacing figure in the box and puts up numbers every single year.