After Historic 2022 - Should The O's Play Prospects Next Year or Acquire Players Who Will "Block" Them?

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We definitely need to upgrade at back up C. Someone more offensive minded. What do we have in Vavra and Stowers?  Is Hays just a platoon LF?

Whatever Hays is, I don’t see him as a platoon player.  His splits vs. LHP vs. RHP are .781/.725.  This year he’s .709/.722.   He’s not strong enough vs. LHP to be a platoon player on that side, and not weak enough vs. RHP where you’d look to platoon him.   

By the way, AL left fielders are averaging .699 OPS this year, right fielders are .704.   So it’s not like Hays at .724 has been terrible.   It’s just that his second half of the season has been weak.  

[OriolesMagic83]

23 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

The pitching is rather obvious. The O's need at least 2  SPs and one of those needs to be Elite. I am less certain about a BP arm and would put it lower on the list.

Infield:

3B: If this is where Gunnar is best utilized then you are set. I'm convinced he can be elite defensively at 3B, not convinced he would be elite at SS.

SS: The easy answer is to leave Mateo here. SG would probably say that's a lazy answer though. I'd like to see Mateo traded. The free agent market next year is full of Elite SS. Trea Turner appeals to me for his flexibility. He'd be my primary target. If Ortiz is ready soon you can move Turner to CF or 2B. 

2B: If Westburg is ready, great. If not then Urias. 

Utility: See 2B, whichever guy you don't start at 2B plays here.

1B: Tough call on Mountcastle. I'd try to upgrade here. Might be a place to upgrade at the deadline if Mounty is not cutting it offensively.

Outfield:

RF: This is the off season to trade Sandander. I think you give Stowers a shot here in 2023.

CF: If you can get Turner as a FA then trading Mullins is easier. I think they missed the "trade high" opportunity last offseason. Cowser is heir apparent here.

LF: Need a LH bat to move Hayes to 4th OF status. 

DH: Upgrade here is needed when Adley is catching.

As far as 1B, I think Rizzo would be a good upgrade if he can be signed to a 2 or 3 year deal.  Any idea what it would take to sign him?

[OriolesMagic83]

The upper minors are a little thin in OF prospects.  Obviously Cowser is a standout, but there is little between Cowser and Fabian/Beavers in A ball.  Should some of the IF prospects/Urias/Vavra be tried in the OF?  Not sure who would be a good fit and has the necessary skills. 

[Absltgreek]

2 hours ago, DocJJ said:

I'd like to see us add Aaron Judge and Jacob DeGrom and maybe Carlos Rodon.

 

I was half jokingly/half seriously pondering something like this the last few days... Adding something like Judge (8/300 w/ opt out?) and Verlander (2/80 w/ vesting 3rd yr option). Combined with upcoming prospects and trades (Santander for Pitching) and having something like:

Catcher: Adley

1B: Mountcastle/Westburg

2B: Westburg/Vavra/Urias

SS: Ortiz/Mateo/Henderson

3B: Henderson/Urias

LF: Stowers

CF: Mullins

RF: Judge

DH: Urias/Judge/Whoever isn't playing/bench

Bench: Urias/Mateo/Hays/Backup C

SP: Verlander

SP: GROD

SP: Kremer

SP: Means

SP4/5: Bradish/Lyles/Voth

BP: Felix and the boys, etc.

 

Not super well thought out, probably not realistic, but boy would that be fun to watch...

Edited September 19, 2022 by Absltgreek

[Just Regular]

51 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The upper minors are a little thin in OF prospects.  Obviously Cowser is a standout, but there is little between Cowser and Fabian/Beavers in A ball.  Should some of the IF prospects/Urias/Vavra be tried in the OF?  Not sure who would be a good fit and has the necessary skills. 

Arizona and another half season of data will tell us more about a possible Heston Kjerstad answer there.    Elias chose Kjerstad and Cowser I feel sure with the hope of "set it and forget it" for about 6.75 seasons.

 

[MCO'sFan]

12 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Arizona and another half season of data will tell us more about a possible Heston Kjerstad answer there.    Elias chose Kjerstad and Cowser I feel sure with the hope of "set it and forget it" for about 6.75 seasons.

 

I hope Kjerstad moves fast next year.

[Jim'sKid26]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

As far as 1B, I think Rizzo would be a good upgrade if he can be signed to a 2 or 3 year deal.  Any idea what it would take to sign him?

So Rizzo will play the majority of 2023 as a 33 yo. He has earned about 2.6 WAR, likely to get to 2.8-3.0 when 2022 is done. He signed a 1/$16 M for 2022 with an option for 2023 that he will almost certainly decline. He just came off the IL.

Can you get him to sign a 3 year deal? Do you have to go 4? I don't think he signs another 1 year deal or even a 2 year deal. Ideal would be 2years and an option, maybe 2/$36 with a $15M option for year 3? That's a quick back of the napkin without using comps.

 

[Pickles]

15 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

So Rizzo will play the majority of 2023 as a 33 yo. He has earned about 2.6 WAR, likely to get to 2.8-3.0 when 2022 is done. He signed a 1/$16 M for 2022 with an option for 2023 that he will almost certainly decline. He just came off the IL.

Can you get him to sign a 3 year deal? Do you have to go 4? I don't think he signs another 1 year deal or even a 2 year deal. Ideal would be 2years and an option, maybe 2/$36 with a $15M option for year 3? That's a quick back of the napkin without using comps.

 

Rizzo on a three year deal.  Gross.

[Jim'sKid26]

9 hours ago, Pickles said:

Rizzo on a three year deal.  Gross.

If you are going to shoot me down, when I am responding to another poster's question, at least make an attempt at backing up your visceral response. Why is 3 years for Rizzo "Gross?" Is it his age, his injury history? The typical history of players who are well past their prime. Help me out.

[Jagwar]

On 9/18/2022 at 10:14 AM, Sports Guy said:

I wrote an article for ESR recently that discussed the idea that Elias and this ownership group can’t do what Duq, Buck and PA did after 2012 and 2014.  They did barely anything to add to those teams.  They seemingly made assumptions and they didn’t capitalize on those teams.

Sitting on your hands and doing very little this offseason will almost guarantee a similar outcome to this year.  Good season but not good enough.

You obviously don’t block your top young guys but you need a lot more talent on this team.

One huge difference between those years and this year is that Duq, Buck and PA did not have a top rated farm system to play with. 

But I'm with you. The O's are flirting with .500 with the lowest payroll in baseball by far, and excitement/anticipation is high among the fans. Add $100 million to the payroll in the offseason through trades/signings... strengthen the rotation, bolster the bullpen, add a MOO bat, add a 1B and an OF who get on base. Hopefully players will want to sign.  

[Jagwar]

On 9/18/2022 at 10:44 AM, Sports Guy said:

If it were up to me, our IF would be Mountcastle at first (assuming we don’t trade him) and some kind of combo of Ortiz, Westburg and Henderson.

The OF is very unclear to me as I would look to make a lot of moves out there. 
 

I would bring in 1-2 bats from outside the organization for DH and the OF.

Cowser’s struggles in AAA have made me more hesitant to want to start him in the majors on OD but he should still be up within a few months.  Otoh, if he goes to ST and looks ready because of what he did in the offseason, I’m ok with that too.

I think we need to add 2 legit starting pitchers and one upper echelon BP arm.

So, 4-5 players from outside the organization and elevating 3 or more top prospects.  

Would you want Ortiz, Westburg and Henderson from day 1? Seems a bit risky to give 50% of your starting infield to two guys who will not have proven they can handle major league pitching. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Jagwar said:

Would you want Ortiz, Westburg and Henderson from day 1? Seems a bit risky to give 50% of your starting infield to two guys who will not have proven they can handle major league pitching. 

Yea I’m ok with it.  Those guys are ready.  They should be very good defensively from the get go.  Offense could struggle some early but that’s not unusual anyway since pitching is usually ahead of hitting early on.

But I don’t see what good there is in sending Westburg to the minors next year.

Maybe you want to make sure Ortiz isn’t a fluke but can he really be any worse than Odor has been offensively?

[Jagwar]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea I’m ok with it.  Those guys are ready.  They should be very good defensively from the get go.  Offense could struggle some early but that’s not unusual anyway since pitching is usually ahead of hitting early on.

But I don’t see what good there is in sending Westburg to the minors next year.

Maybe you want to make sure Ortiz isn’t a fluke but can he really be any worse than Odor has been offensively?

No you're right, I wouldn't expect that Ortiz/Westburg would be worse than Mateo/Odor offenseively. But I'm thinking that for a team that has playoff aspirations, it's risky to hand starting jobs to two unproven prospects, with likely no plan B if they falter. Can't have reward without risk though. 

Heck, go acquire 2 proven bats for 1B/OH/DH and I'm not as concerned about Ortiz and Westburg being able to handle the job.  

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

No you're right, I wouldn't expect that Ortiz/Westburg would be worse than Mateo/Odor offenseively. But I'm thinking that for a team that has playoff aspirations, it's risky to hand starting jobs to two unproven prospects, with likely no plan B if they falter. Can't have reward without risk though. 

Heck, go acquire 2 proven bats for 1B/OH/DH and I'm not as concerned about Ortiz and Westburg being able to handle the job.  

Well I think 2 of Vavra, Mateo and Urias are on the team next year, so you have some fall back options.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Jagwar]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well I think 2 of Vavra, Mateo and Urias are on the team next year, so you have some fall back options.

Perhaps... but Vavra, Mateo and Urias don't seem to be a solid plan B. More like status quo. And with Elias saying the team is ready to take a big next step, I'm thinking he won't want to settle for status quo. 

Again... strengthen the lineup in 1B/OF/DH and it lessens the downside risk of Ortiz/Westburg falling flat.