Backup C Targets

[MarCakes21]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

+1, for those saying the backup with only play 35-40 games, I think that is being optimistic. Chirinos played in 67. Caleb Joseph played 49 in 2016. With a decent backup, Adley could contribute even more as DH. The only reason to grind Adley would be if we sign a full time DH. 

Okay, but manage your costs.  So you want to sign one of these guys to be a backup.  Vasquez and Navarez were each making ~$5mil last year.  You'll prorate them to 1/4 of the season, so you'd need to get 1 WAR out of them to make it worth your money.  On the alternative, you could spend $5 mil on a quality BP piece, or add $5mil/per year to another player which might get added returns.  So point being, if Chirinos (or insert other player of similar defensive quality) give you 0.5 WAR for league minimum-$1mil, I would focus there and spend my money elsewhere.

[wildcard]

All the more reason to protect Maverick Handley.   If he can do at AAA next  season what he did at AA last season, he will be in the majors by July.

https://www.milb.com/bowie/stats/?split=vl&playerPool=ALL

https://www.milb.com/player/maverick-handley-668974

Edited November 7, 2022 by wildcard

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Okay, but manage your costs.  So you want to sign one of these guys to be a backup.  Vasquez and Navarez were each making ~$5mil last year.  You'll prorate them to 1/4 of the season, so you'd need to get 1 WAR out of them to make it worth your money.  On the alternative, you could spend $5 mil on a quality BP piece, or add $5mil/per year to another player which might get added returns.  So point being, if Chirinos (or insert other player of similar defensive quality) give you 0.5 WAR for league minimum-$1mil, I would focus there and spend my money elsewhere.

That is reasonable, but then no complaining when our backup is hitting .600. If this is the case, then the majority of the board is going to be disappointed because most of the offseason posts seem to assume we are signing a backup C who can be an offensive upgrade, whereas someone Chirinos level would be unacceptable. 

[MarCakes21]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

That is reasonable, but then no complaining when our backup is hitting .600. If this is the case, then the majority of the board is going to be disappointed because most of the offseason posts seem to assume we are signing a backup C who can be an offensive upgrade, whereas someone Chirinos level would be unacceptable. 

I'd be thrilled if we got a backup to play 40 games, had positive dWAR and had an OPS of .600.  If there's a way to pull the info, I'd imagine majority of teams do not have a backup C that can do that.

[MarCakes21]

A quick scan of backup (my threshold was less than 80 games) who had positive WAR, and their associated OPS:

Zavala: 61 games/ 1.9 WAR/.729 OPS

Jansen: 72/2.6/.855

Jeffers: 0.9/67/648

Maile: 0.7/76/.627

Heineman: 0.6/62/.524

Serven: 0.5/62/.593

Casali: 0.4/57/.649

Wynns (a blast from the past): 0.4/66/.671

McCann and Garver (hurt) put up 0.4 WAR

Delay: 0.2/57/.536

And it tiers down from there.  Those guys below Jansen have negative oWAR and several wins positive in dWAR

So as you can see, if you can get the positive dWAR value, then you take what you can get from the oWAR side.  None of these guys are lighting it up.

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I'd be thrilled if we got a backup to play 40 games, had positive dWAR and had an OPS of .600.  If there's a way to pull the info, I'd imagine majority of teams do not have a backup C that can do that.

Agreed, part of my point with this thread is that it may be harder to find a good backup C than some might think, at least if it is required to hit the criteria that have been discussed. Maybe we were spoiled by Caleb Joseph? So maybe the lesson here is to lower our expectations and Elias's hoarding backup C's from the waiver wire may not be so crazy. 

[OriolesMagic83]

I would like to see the O's sign Narvaez.  Probably looking for a starting job.  O's will likely sign someone who will play for near the MLB minimum.  Can't wait for Handley to get to the majors.

[waroriole]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Vogt retired.

Cross him off, then. 

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

I'd be thrilled if we got a backup to play 40 games, had positive dWAR and had an OPS of .600.  If there's a way to pull the info, I'd imagine majority of teams do not have a backup C that can do that.

“Positive dWAR” is not really a criterion for a good defensive catcher.   dWAR has two components, one of which is a positive “positional adjustment” for being a catcher.  So, you can be a below average defensive catcher and still have a positive dWAR.

[Tony-OH]

9 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

Yes, outrage because he was costing the team by not hitting.  But per bref, he had positive 0.4 dWar and 0.0 oWar.  I'm no expert on those either.

oWAR needs to be relooked when a hitter slashes .179/.265/.287/.552 and does not get a negative WAR. Oh, as for his dWAR being 0.4, that needs to be looked at as well. His Rdrs/yr was -23, he threw out 25% (lg avg with 31%), 13th percentile pop times to 2B, and 1 percentile framing.

Might be time for them to recalibrate dWAR for catchers because Chirinos was bad in every aspect other than blocking really, and no way he made up all of that with his blocking.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1590005853943648257?s=46&t=gBerfOg6GOeev6THgPPpng
 

 

[Jim'sKid26]

It might be very reasonable to try and get another top catching prospect in a trade. 

"If you look at our Top Prospect Lists over the years, it’s hard not to notice the recent influx of catchers. Not only that, but many of the catchers who’ve made the cut have found their way into the top tier of our overall Top 100, representing some of the brightest future stars in their respective organizations. This year’s list includes 12 catchers (I’m including Tyler Soderstrom, though we project him as a first baseman long-term); six of those rank within our top 30, and three fall within the top 10. Those marks are all the best of any prior year’s pre-season report going back to 2017:"

Catchers ’22: The Changing Catcher Prospect Landscape | FanGraphs Baseball

Why not acquire a young controllable catcher and use the time Adley is not catching to break them into the MLB? Someone at AAA who is blocked but promising. Why go with the "known quantity" type of BU catcher?  

[yark14]

23 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

+1, for those saying the backup with only play 35-40 games, I think that is being optimistic. Chirinos played in 67. Caleb Joseph played 49 in 2016. With a decent backup, Adley could contribute even more as DH. The only reason to grind Adley would be if we sign a full time DH. 

That is why I want us to go all in on Willson Contreras.  We can DH Adley as much as we need to without worrying about a significant overall dropoff.  Plus, Contreras can DH on the days Adley catches (he's as good, if not a better hitter than Santander).  Plus, Contreras has played a bit of 1st.  Not a ton, but his stats there in small sample sizes are good.

With rotating between part-time DH, catcher, and 1B, there isn't any reason Contreras doesn't get the 400ish at-bats that he has typically gotten as a Cub.

[Aristotelian]

27 minutes ago, yark14 said:

That is why I want us to go all in on Willson Contreras.  We can DH Adley as much as we need to without worrying about a significant overall dropoff.  Plus, Contreras can DH on the days Adley catches (he's as good, if not a better hitter than Santander).  Plus, Contreras has played a bit of 1st.  Not a ton, but his stats there in small sample sizes are good.

With rotating between part-time DH, catcher, and 1B, there isn't any reason Contreras doesn't get the 400ish at-bats that he has typically gotten as a Cub.

I see no reason to pay Contreras as a starting C and then DH him 3/4 of the time. 

[CharmCityHokie]

40 minutes ago, yark14 said:

That is why I want us to go all in on Willson Contreras.  We can DH Adley as much as we need to without worrying about a significant overall dropoff.  Plus, Contreras can DH on the days Adley catches (he's as good, if not a better hitter than Santander).  Plus, Contreras has played a bit of 1st.  Not a ton, but his stats there in small sample sizes are good.

With rotating between part-time DH, catcher, and 1B, there isn't any reason Contreras doesn't get the 400ish at-bats that he has typically gotten as a Cub.

Contreras is the top FA catcher in this class, he's going to get $50-60mm+ and I cannot imagine he wants to come share the starting spotlight with Adley. I'd be beyond shocked if they even contacted his agent.