What will the Orioles’ payroll be in 2023?

[Frobby]

In theory, if the O’s signed absolutely nobody new for next year, their payroll could be as low as $34 mm.  Last year, BB-ref had them at $48 mm.  

I’ve seen various opinions on what the O’s payroll will be for 2023, but I thought I’d run a poll to pin it down.  What say you?  Obviously, this is total speculation.

To be clear about what’s on the books, Means is under contract for $3 mm, our seven Arb players are estimated to cost $18 mm, and in theory the other 18 spots could be filled at $700-750 k per spot by pre-Arb players.   
 

 

Edited November 18, 2022 by Frobby

[Sports Guy]

Looks like about 14.6 owed to Davis, Cobb and ODay as well.

[Sports Guy]

I would say 60-70M.

Means and the deferred players are 17.6.  Figure we will have 10-13M in pre arb players, at least.

Edited November 18, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Looks like about 14.6 owed to Davis, Cobb and ODay as well.

I conveniently forgot about that.  So, the under $40 mm option is probably off the table.   But anyway, how much of a one-year increase will we see?

Personally, whatever the max payroll for the O’s is over the next 5-7 years, I’m not expecting the O’s to get there in one offseason.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

I conveniently forgot about that.  So, the under $40 mm option is probably off the table.   But anyway, how much of a one-year increase will we see?

Personally, whatever the max payroll for the O’s is over the next 5-7 years, I’m not expecting the O’s to get there in one offseason.  

Of course not.  Their payroll won’t max out until they start to get these guys well into arbitration. 
 

This really depends on if they trade any of the vets and how many of the young kids start the year here.

[Frobby]

Just to add a little perspective, per BB-ref, the median payroll last year was about $126.5 mm.

Above $120 mm - 17 teams

$100 - 119.9 mm - 4 teams

$80 - 99.9 mm - 1 team

$60 - 79.9 mm - 5 teams

$40 - 59.9 mm - 2 teams

Under $40 mm - 1 team

Thats all by BB-ref’s methodology, which doesn’t appear to include deferred compensation.

 

[oriole]

I’ll go ahead and be hopelessly optimistic. Let’s say they recognize the years with Adley is a prime contention window and they decide to go all in. Verlander shouldn’t need any more than a 2 year commitment as long as the money is right. Go ahead and sign Correa and move Mateo to 2B where he can make up for the lost shift with his speed and range. Trade Holliday for a year of Ohtani because by the time the kid is ready, we’ll be nearing the end of this supposed magical window of competitive relevance. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, oriole said:

I’ll go ahead and be hopelessly optimistic. Let’s say they recognize the years with Adley is a prime contention window and they decide to go all in. Verlander shouldn’t need any more than a 2 year commitment as long as the money is right. Go ahead and sign Correa and move Mateo to 2B where he can make up for the lost shift with his speed and range. Trade Holliday for a year of Ohtani because by the time the kid is ready, we’ll be nearing the end of this supposed magical window of competitive relevance. 

The last sentence makes zero sense.  

[AnythingO's]

Elias has said "significantly escalate the payroll" and "alot of that is going to come through our own guys going into arbitration" back in mid-August. If Means, Arb, and pre-Arb is about $35 M, then I don't see the increase being more than that so $60-79.9 M. 

[oriole]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The last sentence makes zero sense.  

I was hoping the cowboy hat conveyed my detachment from reality 

[wildcard]

Somewhere around 80 give or take 5m.

[Going Underground]

It will definitely not be over $100 ,but low 83 or so million. Still see them in the top 10 lowest.Also if they think the costs are too high for the players they want ,knock it down to 69 or so million. 

[Aristotelian]

I will go with the 60-79 range. If I had to guess, closer to 60 than to 79. 

[emmett16]

65MM is my guess.  

[MurphDogg]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Somewhere around 80 give or take 5m.

Yeah, that is my guess as well. Went with $80M-$99.9M but would be more surprised by $95M than $65M.