How much better would Carlos Correa make the O's?

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

If we're going to spend $30M AAV, might as well just buy an Ace and roll with Gunnar/Holliday/Ortiz. 

Stupid post … Henderson is going to play 3B. Ortiz isn’t ready and won’t be Correa when he is. And Holiday is a high school player that’s likely at very least 4 years out.

[clapdiddy]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

Stupid post … Henderson is going to play 3B. Ortiz isn’t ready and won’t be Correa when he is. And Holiday is a high school player that’s likely at very least 4 years out.

I'd be shocked and disappointed if it took 4 years for Holliday to make it to the bigs.  

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, clapdiddy said:

But Mateo was a 3 WAR player...so he's probably right. 

So put Mateo at 2B and use the win adjustments versus Odor

[Camden Yards]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

He’s a 5+ WAR player but carry on

Correa 5.4 last year minus Mateo 3.4 last year. He makes us 2 better just based on last year. 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Stupid post … Henderson is going to play 3B. Ortiz isn’t ready and won’t be Correa when he is. And Holiday is a high school player that’s likely at very least 4 years out.

Yeah I mean, to suggest Correa isn't a fit for this team is nonsense. Unless Gunnar Henderson is their guy at SS, which he isn't, no one in the farm system should be stopping Elias from pursuing any of the top SS on the market.

My whole thing is just do I believe we're actually in on him, like for real? Ehhh. I'd love it tho! 

[maybenxtyr]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

He’s a 5+ WAR player but carry on

But you'd be replacing a 3.4 WAR player with him, so by basic math a win or 2. 

 

This may be my ignorance, but this is where I don't agree with advanced stats. I think the impact is different than just adding a win or so better player.

[interloper]

Folks, if we can improve 30+ wins with Rougned Odor and Chris Owings and Robinson Chirinos and a rotation that includes Voth and oh yeah we traded our closer and a middle of the order bat....

Imagine where we go with a full season of Gunnar and Adley, and tossing Correa into the middle of the lineup with Santander and Mounty. That's a fun ass lineup! It deepens the offense so much. And he's an excellent defender as well. Has performed in the playoffs. Big chunky veteran hitter. 

WAR doesn't really work like that where you win 2 more games because a guy is worth 2 more WAR than the guy he replaces. 

[Roll Tide]

6 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

I'd be shocked and disappointed if it took 4 years for Holliday to make it to the bigs.  

3.8 years for a HS 1st round player to reach the majors. Hoping and expecting are quite different things.

 

 

https://community.fangraphs.com/time-from-draft-until-majors/

[clapdiddy]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

3.8 years for a HS 1st round player to reach the majors. Hoping and expecting are quite different things.

 

 

https://community.fangraphs.com/time-from-draft-until-majors/

Good to know.   Thanks for this link.

[Roll Tide]

6 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

But you'd be replacing a 3.4 WAR player with him, so by basic math a win or 2. 

 

This may be my ignorance, but this is where I don't agree with advanced stats. I think the impact is different than just adding a win or so better player.

So … a couple of things. You’re replacing Odor at 2B. Maybe you move Mateo to 2B or he’s in a trade. 
 

but, WAR doesn’t take the strides in fixing our OBP problems and run differential. 

[owknows]

"Just wait 'til next year, Charlie Brown. You'll see! Next year at this same time, I'll find a pumpkin patch that is real sincere and I'll sit in that pumpkin patch until the Great Pumpkin appears. He'll rise out of that pumpkin patch and he'll fly through the air with his bag of toys."

[tntoriole]

55 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

The only Bat good enough to bypass Arms for with $$$ if Elias has $30-$40mm.     An infielder who makes all of Mateo, Urias, Westburg, Ortiz and Norby spare parts, and someone to protect Adley from full face of franchise responsibilities for a little while longer.

I wouldn't even complain as much about Spenser Watkins or Jordan Lyles returning to the bump.

Come 2025 either Correa or Holliday plays 2B, but two years to sort that out.

The basic Padres Machado scenario except the big league team is already better, and Adley feels safer than Tatis if lacking his upside.

Opt outs would certainly be part of the planning given our assets.  Unless you trade some assets to get the top tier pitcher

[Winter]

15 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Stupid post … Henderson is going to play 3B. Ortiz isn’t ready and won’t be Correa when he is. And Holiday is a high school player that’s likely at very least 4 years out.

 if anything a player like Correa assures Holliday isn't rushed and allows for full development.  -- If he shreds it and forces his way onto the team in 2-2.5 years then that isn't a bad thing. -- Also makes Urias easier to part ways with, Mateo goes to utility, Westburg/Ortiz/Vavra all 2B options for next 2-3 years. If one of them secure everyday 2B then GOOD. This is the point of a deep farm system. With that said I won't be bummed out if we don't sign Correa either knowing the young talent all get a chance to prove themselves. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, owknows said:

"Just wait 'til next year, Charlie Brown. You'll see! Next year at this same time, I'll find a pumpkin patch that is real sincere and I'll sit in that pumpkin patch until the Great Pumpkin appears. He'll rise out of that pumpkin patch and he'll fly through the air with his bag of toys."

I'd have gone with Lucy and the football.

But I can respect your choice.

[tntoriole]

13 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

3.8 years for a HS 1st round player to reach the majors. Hoping and expecting are quite different things.

 

 

https://community.fangraphs.com/time-from-draft-until-majors/

Although Gunnar just was  under 3 years .. 18 years old in 2019 and played 30 games after draft, no games in 2020, 2021 rocketed to Bowie, 2022 Bowie/Norfolk  till Aug promotion.. I would say that is 2 actual playing years.. sure he worked on stuff in 2020 but even if that year is included there he is 3 years max