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Orioles interested in Taillon per Melewski


Roll Tide

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Taillon talk: The Orioles’ interest in right-hander Jameson Taillon seems quite legit at this point as we await further updates to see if the club makes the free agent a contract offer. He was ranked by MLBTradeRumors.com as the sixth-best free agent pitcher available behind Carlos Rodon, Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander Kodai Senga and Chris Bassitt.

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/notes-on-expensive-pitching-hyde-honored-and-taillon-talk

Edited by Roll Tide
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  • Roll Tide changed the title to Orioles interested in Tallion per Melewski
  • Roll Tide changed the title to Orioles interested in Taillon per Melewski
4 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

106 ERA+ in 2019

100 ERA+ in 2021

100 ERA+ in 2022

Likely going to get something in the neighborhood of 4/$70 million.

Meh.

 

 

 

He’s better than anyone we have. You don’t want Rodon, is there anyone you do want that’s sure to be at an inflated price.

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5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

He’s better than anyone we have. You don’t want Rodon, is there anyone you do want that’s sure to be at an inflated price.

He's average, so I guess that's a step up from Gibson at least. Based on the other teams that have been reported to be involved in Taillon's market though, I doubt we are going to win the bidding war. 

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37 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

106 ERA+ in 2019

100 ERA+ in 2021

100 ERA+ in 2022

Likely going to get something in the neighborhood of 4/$70 million.

Meh.

 

 

 

I'm fairly confident Taillon can be had for three years. If he pushes for a fourth year I'd pass, but he's a perfectly serviceable above average MLB SP, which is better than who/what we have now. 

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2 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm fairly confident Taillon can be had for three years. If he pushes for a fourth year I'd pass, but he's a perfectly serviceable above average MLB SP, which is better than who/what we have now. 

I would be pretty surprised if he doesn't get 4 years based on how strong his market has been reported to be. deGrom getting a fifth guaranteed year really gave other sought after pitchers the ability to push hard for longer deals. 

He is not above average though, he has been exactly average for the past 2 years since his surgery with a 100 ERA+ in both years. Maybe he can be more than that but it remains to be seen.

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Let’s look into him:

K rate: 7.66 (went down about a full K in a down run environment)

FIP:  3.94 (ERA was 3.91)

xERA: 4.20

Swingstr%- 17.3% (was over 20% in 2021)

Str%- 65.5%
 
Statcast numbers are decent overall.

So, in 2022 the biggest thing that jumps out is the drop in K rate and the drop in missed bats.  That said, 2021 represented his high in Ks and swingstr%. That would be more of an outlier than a predictor at this point.

He has had TJ surgery twice but outside of 2019-2020, he has shown to be pretty durable.

He won’t walk batters. Career ERA is under 4.

He’s fine but he can’t be your best add this offseason imo. If you went Taillon and Lopez or went big with Rodon or something like that, so be it but hard to believe that’s happening and unless you are going with a 6 man rotation or Bradish or Kremer are being dealt, you aren’t adding 3 FA starters.

 

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