Poll: Do you like the Adam Frazier signing?

[eddie83]

6 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

playing 3b

Ok.  Where are Mateo and Gunnar?

[Jammer7]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I want to address the point about Frazier’s foot speed, which I believe could be a legitimate concern.  The drop was drastic enough (0.3 ft/sec after holding steady from 2020 to 2021) that it almost makes me wonder if Frazier was playing hurt part of the year.   But I haven’t heard that he was.  

Anyway, it made me wonder if it impacted Frazier’s ability to beat out ground balls.  The answer is yes, but beating out grounders wasn’t a big part of his game.  He had 10 infield hits in 2021, 5 in 2022.   That’s maybe 8 points on his BA.  So, it’s not the main cause of his drop in hitting performance in 2022, but certainly could have been a contributing factor. 
 

I thought the same thing about his loss of a step. I too have not heard or read about an injury, but not all all reported. Just like Hays, Mullins and Santander being dinged up most of the year. He was never a speedster, but if he has lost a step and cannot get it back, it causes issue for me on the defensive end. 

Fly ball rate went up by 5% since, and line drive rate went down the same 5%. Not really a huge thing. Hard hit % went down, and it seems to correspond to his change in mechanics that got rid of a step or toe tap in his swing. He widened out and lost his lower half in doing so. I would be trying to flatten him out more, no need for him to lift the ball unless it’s a middle-in FB waist high. 

[theobird]

I voted no. Because I am a big believer in the kids, not so much that i dislike Frazier. He has a lot of versatility, and he’s a decent player. I just want the prospects to play, have opportunity to play

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I have a huge problem with the thought process and the decision. That bothers me. It bothers me that this team has proven that they will stick to vets not performing well because of leadership, perceived good defense, etc..All of that is wrong. The whole thought process to making this decision is wrong.  

I agree this will be something to follow.

Odor was left in place I believe in part because the team wasn't meant to win.    The level of success was not in the expected range of outcomes.    It was almost like the reverse of the last few seconds in Miracle, when the US coach says of the Russian coach needing to pull his goalie because he was losing, "he doesn't know what to do".

The 2023 team won't be meant to lose like the 2022 team.    That should manifest in quicker job loss for ineffective players.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I agree this will be something to follow.

Odor was left in place I believe in part because the team wasn't meant to win.    The level of success was not in the expected range of outcomes.    It was almost like the reverse of the last few seconds in Miracle, when the US coach says of the Russian coach needing to pull his goalie because he was losing, "he doesn't know what to do".

The 2023 team won't be meant to lose like the 2022 team.    That should manifest in quicker job loss for ineffective players.

The problem with this is that the 2022 team became a winner and you kept playing the below replacement player anyway.  That is the worry with Frazier and its a valid concern.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I want to address the point about Frazier’s foot speed, which I believe could be a legitimate concern.  The drop was drastic enough (0.3 ft/sec after holding steady from 2020 to 2021) that it almost makes me wonder if Frazier was playing hurt part of the year.   But I haven’t heard that he was.  

Anyway, it made me wonder if it impacted Frazier’s ability to beat out ground balls.  The answer is yes, but beating out grounders wasn’t a big part of his game.  He had 10 infield hits in 2021, 5 in 2022.   That’s maybe 8 points on his BA.  So, it’s not the main cause of his drop in hitting performance in 2022, but certainly could have been a contributing factor. 
 

Its possible. Its also extremely logical that he is just getting slower as most human beings do as they approach their upper 20s/lower 30s.

[SilverRocket]

I voted no, though 1 year $8 million is just not an amount that I think is a big deal. I don't see the rationale for this deal given all the numbers I can see, but front offices have access to numbers we don't, so I'll hope for the best.

If it leads to a trade, then my opinion probably goes from Mildly Bad to Neutral, or possibly Mildly Good if the trade is great.

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

In his interviews, he has talked about the mechanics adjustments. I went and looked at video and saw what he was talking about. Take a look at his fly ball to ground ball ratios. That is maybe the biggest reason he has struggled. I don’t see the value in trying to make him hit 350 foot fly balls. Let him get back to a line drive approach. I know, gasp, such an old school thought. lol

I see what you're saying regarding GB/FB ratios and LD ratios.  His best years were lower than average FB% and higher than average LD%. 

In 2020, he hammered 4 seamers (.578 SLG vs the pitch).  Not too shabby considering his 2020 AEV was 85.5.  But it looks like he suffered against every other pitch.  I suspect he tooled up to put his best pull-side swing on that pitch.  That's why I tend to think it's his approach vs. his mechanics.  Whatever it is, I think there's upside room for 'regression to mean' even without a change.

Ultimately, I agree that his best hitting profile is that old school line drive/bat to ball approach.  Teams trying to "unlock" more EV can be a fool's errand that does more harm than good.

"I try to keep it real simple.  I try not to add a lot of frosting on what I'm doing.  Just take the swing and don't muscle the swing, because if you get in the hitting position and you take the swing, I generate a lot more bat speed, and that works for me."  -- Tony Gwynn

[Orioles0615]

3 hours ago, eddie83 said:

Ok.  Where are Mateo and Gunnar?

Mateo goes to then bench where he belongs as a utility guy 

[webbrick2010]

So the Angels signed Brandon Drury for a lower AAV than Frazier, this deal just looks worse

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

So the Angels signed Brandon Drury for a lower AAV than Frazier, this deal just looks worse

Brandon Drury was worth 2.6 WAR last year.  That brought his career WAR to a total of 2.2.  Just saying.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

So the Angels signed Brandon Drury for a lower AAV than Frazier, this deal just looks worse

I'm not sure why Elias makes fairly early moves for players such as Frazier or Lyles.   I would think that there wouldn't be much demand for them and that they could be signed closer to spring training for less.

 

[Ripken]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not sure why Elias makes fairly early moves for players such as Frazier or Lyles.   I would think that there wouldn't be much demand for them and that they could be signed closer to spring training for less.

It's not like he's focused on adding talented FAs or otherwise improving the roster.

[btdart20]

15 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

So the Angels signed Brandon Drury for a lower AAV than Frazier, this deal just looks worse

I'm in the exact opposite camp when comparing the two players and contracts. 

Regarding the player - Drury is a career .302 OBP guy.  His breakout year in 2022 is the same ballpark that has an expected HR for Mountcastle at 40.  Drury hit 29 HR last year, in OPACY his xHR was 18.  On defense, it's like Cincy and SD tried to hide him as he half as many attempts as Frazier did in Seattle.

Regarding the contract - We're already upset that Frazier will block prospects while using resources that could go toward an SP.  I don't want to double down on that decision just to get a lower AAV. 

IMO - Frazier's deal is better than Drury's.

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not sure why Elias makes fairly early moves for players such as Frazier or Lyles.   I would think that there wouldn't be much demand for them and that they could be signed closer to spring training for less.

 

Agreed.  It's like he's got an idea of who he wants and is aggressive for whatever reason.  I doubt there was much competition for Lyles last year, that one still is a mystery to me (but it worked out).  Frazier coming early can make some sense if he's got more plans for the off-season.  

[George Zuverink]

The voting on this poll reminded me of the voting in the 2020 and 2022 elections  with distinct differences between early and late in the day voting. When I voted early in the day, it was almost 80% “not good” and 20% “good.” I was part of that almost silent minority. Now it’s about 68%/32%.