Poll: Do you like the Adam Frazier signing?

[Tony-OH]

12 hours ago, George Zuverink said:

The voting on this poll reminded me of the voting in the 2020 and 2022 elections  with distinct differences between early and late in the day voting. When I voted early in the day, it was almost 80% “not good” and 20% “good.” I was part of that almost silent minority. Now it’s about 68%/32%. 

I don't ever remember it being 80/20, but either way, I think were starting to see the people who just want it to be good coming on and voting for, vs informed decisions posters in the against. I could be wrong, but I don't know a lot of the names in the for, vs knowing almost all of the names in the against.

Either way, everyone is allowed their opinion and I respect all the posters willing to make a call and go on record. At this point, we just have to wait and see.

I'll be honest though, I'd rather be wrong on this then right because I don't root for any Oriole to fail.

[Too Tall]

You are right Tony, my decision to vote FOR in this poll may not be "an informed decision" but it's my decision because I'm going to lean toward rooting for any signing until that player proves On The Field they were a bad decision. I got to say, I also resent being labeled Uninformed. I think it's time to stop the name calling and labeling.

I"ve been around this site for over 15 years and a plus member on and off. I would dare say there are a number of Oriole Fans that are uninformed or FAN BOYS if you would. I started to ignor this and just take a break but this really ticks off an Old Oriole Fan Boy that is going into his 70th season. So now we know who the "informed" and "uninformed" Oriole fans are at least on this site. I'll wear my badge with honor! All you informed fans put me on ignor cause heck I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.

 

[eddie83]

 

[Tony-OH]

21 hours ago, Too Tall said:

You are right Tony, my decision to vote FOR in this poll may not be "an informed decision" but it's my decision because I'm going to lean toward rooting for any signing until that player proves On The Field they were a bad decision. I got to say, I also resent being labeled Uninformed. I think it's time to stop the name calling and labeling.

I"ve been around this site for over 15 years and a plus member on and off. I would dare say there are a number of Oriole Fans that are uninformed or FAN BOYS if you would. I started to ignor this and just take a break but this really ticks off an Old Oriole Fan Boy that is going into his 70th season. So now we know who the "informed" and "uninformed" Oriole fans are at least on this site. I'll wear my badge with honor! All you informed fans put me on ignor cause heck I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.

 

Too Tall, I didn't say everyone who voted that way was uninformed, but you proved my point in that you say you are for this based on wanting him to be good, not because the value of the deal or stats that say it's a good signing.

While you and everyone else are certainly welcome and to mix it up, we go into very deep detail using all the metrics available to us. Not everyone has the time or desire to get into that detail, and I respect that, but if you seriously are just voting yes because you hope he does well (which 99% of us do), then you kind of prove my point towards the voters that are now voting yes.

I think some of you need to stop saying I'm name calling when I never called you personally anything. You labelled yourself a fanboy and uniformed, not me. 

Now I appreciate your support and everyone else, and we're happy to have all opinions, but the Hangout has always been the big leagues of message boards when it comes to discussion. This has never been the rah-rah never say anything bad about our beloved Orioles site.

So if you say you agree with the folks who like the Frazier signing because you think he'll bounce back, great, but if you vote that way just because you want to like the player or because you just think any move Elias makes is right until proven wrong, well, then you have to take whatever "label" you think fits. At the same time, unless I called you an uniformed fanboy personally, then stop saying I'm calling you names. You are the one taking on those labels, not me giving them to you.

 

 

[Too Tall]

Tony, I get your response and nothing in it surprises. I stand by mine. Moving on...............................

[DrinkinWithFermi]

On 12/21/2022 at 11:43 AM, LTO's said:

Why would it be miraculous for him to bounce back? He was an all star a season ago and was solid for basically his entire time with Pittsburgh before that.  Many of the Padres recent acquisitions have struggled initially for whatever reason but it's not even like he was bad there. He had a somewhat crappy year last year but that's more of the outlier than anything. Also, the metrics that are his carrying tools aren't declining.  

His big first half with PIT in 2021 was entirely a BABIP-driven outlier.

[Number5]

11 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

His big first half with PIT in 2021 was entirely a BABIP-driven outlier.

And last year wasn't?

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

His big first half with PIT in 2021 was entirely a BABIP-driven outlier.

Don't forget September when his BABIP was .338 and his OPS was .802.      Basically, he had 4 really good months and you will say that they don't mean anything because his BABIP was over his career average in all 4 months.    Of course, we can all see that for the whole season he had a +114 OPS and 3.4 Rwar.   

Spin it any way you want.   Even factoring luck in, he had a good season and finished strong in September.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Don't forget September when his BABIP was .338 and his OPS was .802.      Basically, he had 4 really good months and you will say that they don't mean anything because his BABIP was over his career average in all 4 months.    Of course, we can all see that for the whole season he had a +114 OPS and 3.4 Rwar.   

Spin it any way you want.   Even factoring luck in, he had a good season and finished strong in September.

His big run in PIT in 2021 was the result of a BABIP spike that exceeded his career average by 50+ points. That is not debatable, the only thing that is debatable is what can be expected from him going forward. Based on his 2022 metrics and bottom line numbers, my guess is not much but a bit more than Odor. 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

His big run in PIT in 2021 was the result of a BABIP spike that exceeded his career average by 50+ points. That is not debatable, the only thing that is debatable is what can be expected from him going forward. Based on his 2022 metrics and bottom line numbers, my guess is not much but a bit more than Odor. 

What kind of first half would he have had if his BABIP was his career average.   It still would have been good.   You ding him when his BABIP is above his career average but don't give him any ground when it's below.   Interesting.   Last year he had a horrid month when he put about 80 balls in play and had a .154 BABIP.   Unlucky?

Even last year when he was poor he had two full months in the low 700's.   He's had some terrible months for sure in the last 1 1/2 years but he's had other months which suggest he hasn't completely lost it.

Edited December 23, 2022 by RZNJ

[DrinkinWithFermi]

14 minutes ago, Number5 said:

And last year wasn't?

The metrics are not particularly encouraging, but maybe we'll get lucky and he'll have another outlier like his 2021 first half. 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

What kind of first half would he have had if his BABIP was his career average.   It still would have been good.   You ding him when his BABIP is above his career average but don't give him any ground when it's below.   Interesting.   Last year he had a horrid month when he put about 80 balls in play and had a .154 BABIP.   Unlucky?

Even last year when he was poor he had two full months in the low 700's.   He's had some terrible months for sure in the last 1 1/2 years but he's had other months which suggest he hasn't completely lost it.

I see a lot of people using "stats" like a drunk uses a lamppost.

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

I see a lot of people using "stats" like a drunk uses a lamppost.

To stagger into before crashing to the ground?

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The metrics are not particularly encouraging, but maybe we'll get lucky and he'll have another outlier like his 2021 first half. 

It's reasonable to look at his whole career and see that he's only had one BAD season.  That was 2022.    Even adjusting for luck, he had a good 2021 and finished with an .802 OPS in September that year.    So, you keep ignoring that fact because it doesn't fit your agenda.    He had a bad July and August in 2021.   That's more accurate but it doesn't really mean anything unless you ignore September and say he just got bad all of a sudden when he left Pittsburgh and it's magic waters.

[Pickles]

Just now, owknows said:

To stagger into before crashing to the ground?

For support not illumination.