Suggested Deal w/Marlins

[HakunaSakata]

3 minutes ago, Number5 said:

For it to devalue Mateo, it would have to help everyone else more than it helps Mateo, which makes no sense at all.  The players most helped will almost surely be the better base-stealers.  Guys that weren't really stolen base threats still aren't.  Those extra inches won't help them.  Those inches are big to guys like Mateo, though, as is the new pick-off rule.  Again, non-base-stealers aren't going to be getting bigger leads.  They just aren't.  As I said, I couldn't disagree more than I do with your take on this.  180 degrees apart.

I could see the MLB SB success rate bumping up into the 75-80% range this season, and that's not just because of the bag size, it's because of the two pick off attempt limit. Managers will send their players more (because it statistical makes more sense to take the risk) and encourage their players to take bigger leads (to entice throws) . Pitchers are also going to be much more conscious of when they do / don't throw to the base.

All that said, yes it will benefit everyone, but it will benefit players who 1) get on base and 2) have solid sprint speed the most. Mateo only checks one of those boxes, and if he didn't play such good defense he'd probably be looked upon as a Billy Hamilton / SB specialist type. I think the rule changes are going to make it harder for managers to justify playing and rostering players with that profile who don't hit or get on base with any regularity. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I could see the MLB SB success rate bumping up into the 75-80% range this season, and that's not just because of the bag size, it's because of the two pick off attempt limit. Managers will send their players more (because it statistical makes more sense to take the risk) and encourage their players to take bigger leads (to entice throws) . Pitchers are also going to be much more conscious of when they do / don't throw to the base.

All that said, yes it will benefit everyone, but it will benefit players who 1) get on base and 2) have solid sprint speed the most. Mateo only checks one of those boxes, and if he didn't play such good defense he'd probably be looked upon as a Billy Hamilton / SB specialist type. I think the rule changes are going to make it harder for managers to justify playing and rostering players with that profile who don't hit or get on base with any regularity. 

 

Did we see a bump like that in the minors?

[HakunaSakata]

35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Did totals go up that much in the minors?

 

They did, and more importantly so did the success rate. 

The is a fantasy baseball article, but the implications also apply to baseball. It's also an excellent well thought out analysis. https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/what-the-rule-changes-mean-for-fantasy-baseball-in-2023-from-banning-the-shift-to-limiting-pickoff-throws/

Get ready for more stolen bases

One effect of these changes that may not be obvious at first glance is that players are incentivized to run more -- like, much more. This is in small part due to the bigger bases reducing the distance between first and second by 4 1/2 inches but in larger part due to the limited number of pickoff attempts. Pitchers get two per plate appearances now -- less if they "disengage" the rubber for some other reason. What happens after the second? The runner takes an enormous lead, presumably, making a stolen base attempt seemingly a foregone conclusion.

Now, before you let your imagination run wild, note that there is a mitigating factor. A pitcher can throw over a third time, but he's ceding the base by way of a balk if that throw doesn't result in an out. So the runner can take an aggressive lead, yes, but he can't make himself a sitting duck by walking halfway to second base.

So how big of an effect could this have? Well, let's start with what we've seen in the minors, where stolen base attempts have risen from 2.23 per game in 2019, the last full year without the pickoff rule, to 2.83 per game in 2022. Success rate during that same time has also improved from 68 percent to 77 percent.

"If you impute this type of increase to the major-league level, what this would get us back to is sort of roughly where we were in the early 2000s," said MLB executive vice president Morgan Sword.

Edited January 12, 2023 by HakunaSakata

[orioles22]

7 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

If we're willing to trade players like Westberg, Cowser, etc. we can compete with any of those offers. We have to offer quality to get quality and we have to stop viewing mediocre players like Mateo and Urias through orange colored glasses and expecting them to land us any significant pieces. 

So, Westburg is worth more than a Gold Glove winner and one who played well enough to win it? Cowser would be the last of the four I would give up though.

[LTO's]

21 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

They did, and more importantly so did the success rate. 

The O's could very conceivably have three 25+ SB guys next year in Mullins, Mateo and Henderson. Mullins and Mateo could reach 40. 

[HakunaSakata]

16 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

So, Westburg is worth more than a Gold Glove winner and one who played well enough to win it? Cowser would be the last of the four I would give up though.

I think you may be over simplifying it a bit. Westburg is worth more because he's much younger and has a much higher ceiling.

[sportsfan8703]

20 minutes ago, LTO's said:

The O's could very conceivably have three 25+ SB guys next year in Mullins, Mateo and Henderson. Mullins and Mateo could reach 40. 

More stolen bases + no shift = more holes in the Infield. Adley is going to have some fun hitting 2nd. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

 

So how big of an effect could this have? Well, let's start with what we've seen in the minors, where stolen base attempts have risen from 2.23 per game in 2019, the last full year without the pickoff rule, to 2.83 per game in 2022. Success rate during that same time has also improved from 68 percent to 77 percent.

"If you impute this type of increase to the major-league level, what this would get us back to is sort of roughly where we were in the early 2000s," said MLB executive vice president Morgan Sword.

That will make the game a lot more fun.  Pitchers are going to hate it.  

[sportsfan8703]

It seems like the Marlins have overplayed their hand here Lopez. Arreaz appears out. Leaving only Kepler. The deal they talked about the Yankees and Red Sox seem dead. Santander or Mountcastle could be realistic trade chips at this point. Can our offense stand to lose Santander?  We’d need Cowser to really have a big ST. If we trade a Mountcastle, then Mancini makes since as a stop gap. I guess Profar could be a stop gap for Satander. 
 

One time can we just swoop in and win the offseason. Bauer, Lopez, GR, Bradish, Gibson. With an absolute monster BP and AAA depth. 

[MarCakes21]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It seems like the Marlins have overplayed their hand here Lopez. Arreaz appears out. Leaving only Kepler. The deal they talked about the Yankees and Red Sox seem dead. Santander or Mountcastle could be realistic trade chips at this point. Can our offense stand to lose Santander?  We’d need Cowser to really have a big ST. If we trade a Mountcastle, then Mancini makes since as a stop gap. I guess Profar could be a stop gap for Satander. 
 

One time can we just swoop in and win the offseason. Bauer, Lopez, GR, Bradish, Gibson. With an absolute monster BP and AAA depth. 

I still think we play our hand for two of these guys (Lopez, Luzardo, Cabrera), and they get to pick 3 of Westburg, Cowser, Mayo, Mateo.

And if you scale it to one, then we only give up two of those pieces.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I still think we play our hand for two of these guys (Lopez, Luzardo, Cabrera), and they get to pick 3 of Westburg, Cowser, Mayo, Mateo.

And if you scale it to one, then we only give up two of those pieces.

They don’t want prospects.

[MarCakes21]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They don’t want prospects.

They want ML ready prospects, like Casas.  Westburg and Cowser are there.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

They want ML ready prospects, like Casas.  Westburg and Cowser are there.

Casas is the only rumored non established MLer that has been mentioned. They are consistently linked to established players in terms of what they are asking.

Now, maybe reports aren’t the same as reality, we don’t know that. What we do know is that reportedly they are targeting established MLers.

The Os have 5 established ML options that make sense for Miami. 

[sportsfan8703]

I’ve come to peace with trading Santander. Let’s be honest, it’s selling high on him. We could then sign Mancini as a stop gap. Santander is better than Kepler. Our lineup would be,

vs RHP

Mullins L CF

Adley S C

Gunnar L SS

Mountcastle R 1B

Stowers L LF (Here’s your opportunity)

Mancini R DH

Hays R RF

Frazier L 2B (He better bounceback fast)

Urias R 3B

McKenna, McCann, Mateo, Vavra/Diaz/O’Hearn/Cordero 

It would be tough losing Santander, but Westburg is ready, and Cowser is right behind.  Profar could make more sense than Mancini.  Bottomline is that losing Santander sucks, but we have options.  We don’t have those on the pitching front.

 

[Sports Guy]

I would offer 2 of Santander, Mateo, Urias and Mountcastle for Cabrera and see if they bite.