2023 DT Projections

[Just Regular]

Looks like Clay Davenport has pushed his out.

http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

BAL 5 games or more behind every 6th place aspirant they are chasing.

I've only looked at a few but his player cards give Six-year mean projections, which I don't believe ZiPS or Steamer do over at Fangraphs.      They are very high on Cedric Mullins holding his value in the Adley/Gunnar neighborhood, but very low on Jordan Westburg, who they see as never attaining 2 WAR.       

For position player regulars it looks like they give a full complement of at-bats for as long as the player can stay above replacement, so guys mostly get measured on full-time scale.     But everybody knows if it takes you 550 PA to get your 1.6 WAR, you probably aren't helping your Club be in the Top 6 of its league.

[Spy Fox]

I’m not that surprised to see a projection system with the O’s at only 75 wins. 
 

I’m quite surprised to see a projection system with the Xanderless Red Sox at 88 wins. Or the Rays at a mere .500. 

[Frobby]

Every projection I’ve seen has Adley’s OPS lower than in 2022.   When you look at how his season progressed, I find that extremely unlikely.   

[yark14]

Clay Davenport should retire and move to Davenport, Iowa.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, yark14 said:

Clay Davenport should retire and move to Davenport, Iowa.

And you should retire and move to New Yark.  

[Tony-OH]

I've never been much of a believer in these projection systems. Every projection system had the Orioles as dreadful last year. 

 

[btdart20]

I wonder how models/projection systems consider the degree of prospect (or small sample size) success/failure?  Not only for these independent types, but for Elias/Sigs modeling as well?

13 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

I’m quite surprised to see a projection system with the Xanderless Red Sox at 88 wins. Or the Rays at a mere .500. 

Yup...

[yark14]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

And you should retire and move to New Yark.