The 2023 OPS Projections Thread

[Frobby]

As usual, I’ve started collecting various third-party projections for the Orioles’ players.   At some point I’ll put them on a spreadsheet, but for now, here’s a list, showing Steamer/Marcel/ZiPS/Davenport:

Rutschman .799/.781/.823/.761

Mountcastle .764/.763/.804/.742

Mateo .644/.658/.670/.627

Urias .721/.732/.748/.711

Henderson .790/.757/.812/.759

Hays .734/.732/.741/.713

Mullins .733/.766/.744/.742

Santander .760/.752/.790/.744

Stowers .750/.717/.729/.729

McKenna .635/.664/.645/.674

Vavra .708/.701/.697/.696

Frazier .693/.682/.689/.679

McCann .652/.652/.678/.610

Seems like generally, ZiPS likes us the best, Davenport the least.   But I haven’t looked to see how any of these projections see the offensive environment as a whole.

Rutschman, Mountcastle and McCann have the widest variances between their lowest and highest projections on this list.  Personally, I’m taking the “over” for Adley on even the highest projection here.

 

[eddie83]

Is there a way to convert these numbers to a RPG average? 
 

I guess you know what the league average .OPS is for each projection. 

[Spy Fox]

The projections seem to show more upside than downside compared to last year's performances. Mountcastle, Urias, Hays, Mullins, Stowers, McKenna, Vavra, Frazier, and McCann are all projected to improve by at least 3 of the 4. Only Rutschman and Santander are projected to decline by at least 3 of the 4. 

Of course those lists are basically inversions of who outperformed vs underperformed expectations last year, since projections generally expect players to regress to the mean. 

I also wonder what sort of run environment these systems are projecting overall for the league.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

I hope Frazier does better than his projection because $8M is a lot to pay for a .680 OPS player, when the O's have players in their system who can probably match or even exceed that production for a fraction of the price. 

With the shift rules changing, I'm thinking these OPS projections may be off to a higher degree than previous years. 

Edited January 7, 2023 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I hope Frazier does better than his projection because $8M is a lot to pay for a .680 OPS player, when the O's have players in their system who can probably match or even exceed that production for a fraction of the price. 

I agree with your point, but let’s remember that Frazier is superior defensively to Vavra or Westburg.  Last year, even at .612 OPS, he was worth 0.9 rWAR, 1.1 fWAR.  Steamer at .693 OPS projects him at 1.8 fWAR, ZiPS at .689 OPS also projects him at 1.8 WAR.

Szymborski previously wrote an article pointing out that the O’s probably could get similar production from its in-house options.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-makes-a-microscopic-ripple-by-signing-adam-frazier/

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I agree with your point, but let’s remember that Frazier is superior defensively to Vavra or Westburg.  Last year, even at .612 OPS, he was worth 0.9 rWAR, 1.1 fWAR.  Steamer at .693 OPS projects him at 1.8 fWAR, ZiPS at .689 OPS also projects him at 1.8 WAR.

Szymborski previously wrote an article pointing out that the O’s probably could get similar production from its in-house options.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-makes-a-microscopic-ripple-by-signing-adam-frazier/

It is again amazing to me that his .612 OPS last year (after new league and new city) COMPLETELY negates a  7 year average OPS of .728.  He had exactly 1 season below .700 and that was last year and at age 31 EVERYONE considers him a washed up nothing.  
I hope he duplicates his 2021 with Pittsburg for most of the season of .836 or his oversll OPS of .779 in 2021. 

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, tntoriole said:

It is again amazing to me that his .612 OPS last year (after new league and new city) COMPLETELY negates a  7 year average OPS of .728.  He had exactly 1 season below .700 and that was last year and at age 31 EVERYONE considers him a washed up nothing.  
I hope he duplicates his 2021 with Pittsburg for most of the season of .836 or his oversll OPS of .779 in 2021. 

Who says it completely negates anything?   Your wrong that it’s his first season under .700 - he was at .661 in the Covid-shortened season.  His 2020-22 seasons are .692.   So, at age 31, the projection that he’d be in the .680-690 range after a .612 season isn’t particularly pessimistic.  
 

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Who says it completely negates anything?   Your wrong that it’s his first season under .700 - he was at .661 in the Covid-shortened season.  His 2020-22 seasons are .692.   So, at age 31, the projection that he’d be in the .680-690 range after a .612 season isn’t particularly pessimistic.  
 

2016 - .767,  2017- . 743, 2018- .798,  2019- .753

Then he played 50 games in 2020 so yes he wa at .661- not a valid predictor of anything imho which he proved by hitting .779 in 2021.  
 

I think all the below .700 predictions are  not accurate and we will see.

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, tntoriole said:

2016 - .767,  2017- . 743, 2018- .798,  2019- .753

Then he played 50 games in 2020 so yes he wa at .661- not a valid predictor of anything imho which he proved by hitting .779 in 2021.  
 

I think all the below .700 predictions are  not accurate and we will see.

Obviously, I hope you are correct, and nobody should be shocked if Frazier comes in over .700 OPS.

ZiPS actually provides a range of projections for each player, which for the most part aren’t published.  For Frazier, his 80th percentile projection is .757.   His 20th percentile projection is .626.   Last year was .612.   So the good news is that ZiPS forecasts at least an 80% chance that Frazier hits somewhat better this year, and it’s mostly a matter of how much, with .689 being a sort of average result but better outcomes not far-fetched.   

[tntoriole]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Obviously, I hope you are correct, and nobody should be shocked if Frazier comes in over .700 OPS.

ZiPS actually provides a range of projections for each player, which for the most part aren’t published.  For Frazier, his 80th percentile projection is .757.   His 20th percentile projection is .626.   Last year was .612.   So the good news is that ZiPS forecasts at least an 80% chance that Frazier hits somewhat better this year, and it’s mostly a matter of how much, with .689 being a sort of average result but better outcomes not far-fetched.   

If I had a nickel for every time a ZIPS or other fantasy projection service turned out wrong for both individuals and Orioles as a whole, I could retire lol 

But fortunately the game still has to actually be played by often unpredictable humans and we shall see. 

[owknows]

7 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

If I had a nickel for every time a ZIPS or other fantasy projection service turned out wrong for both individuals and Orioles as a whole, I could retire lol 

But fortunately the game still has to actually be played by often unpredictable humans and we shall see. 

I think most rational people understand that these projections will be wrong.

The primary question is how wrong, and in which direction?

It is unlikely that Frazier will turn out to be 2011 J J Hardy

It is equally unlikely he will turn out to be 2022 Rougned Odor

He will likely be somewhere in between.

It's entirely possible that he's on the high side of that somewhere in between.

So that leaves the secondary question... which is... whatever his performance turns out to be... is it better than the team would have gotten from one of Urias, Vavra, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby?

And was it worth 8 million that could have been spent elsewhere to find that out, when you're going to have to do something with these guys soon?

 

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

If I had a nickel for every time a ZIPS or other fantasy projection service turned out wrong for both individuals and Orioles as a whole, I could retire lol 

But fortunately the game still has to actually be played by often unpredictable humans and we shall see. 

What’s “wrong?”

If ZiPS says the median projection for Frazier was .689 and he comes in at .719, was the projection wrong?   What about .659?   .702?  .676?

Players aren’t metronomes.   Their performance can vary a lot from one year to another.   Projections are just educated guesses of the midpoint for the possibilities.

[tntoriole]

14 minutes ago, owknows said:

I think most rational people understand that these projections will be wrong.

The primary question is how wrong, and in which direction?

It is unlikely that Frazier will turn out to be 2011 J J Hardy

It is equally unlikely he will turn out to be 2022 Rougned Odor

He will likely be somewhere in between.

It's entirely possible that he's on the high side of that somewhere in between.

So that leaves the secondary question... which is... whatever his performance turns out to be... is it better than the team would have gotten from one of Urias, Vavra, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby?

And was it worth 8 million that could have been spent elsewhere to find that out, when you're going to have to do something with these guys soon?

 

Yes 

[RZNJ]

Are these systems anything more than mathematical formulas with each system having a slightly different formula?     Is there any nuance in there?    

Edited January 8, 2023 by RZNJ

[Since1984]

Wonder how much these projections will be impacted by the MLB average in 2023 (i.e. the baseballs manufactured). 2022 was a down year and I expect Adley to exceed .800, cause his eye for the strike zone gets him through any bad streaks.