Ryan Mountcastle 2023

[Billy F-Face3]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I'm giving you data.

Actual data.

Not hyperbole. 

Nothing prideful in that.  I didn't create Statcast.  A 10 year old could find the data I provided for you.

I provided data too. Yet, you seem to be caught up with ignoring it because you feel you always gotta be right.

Humble yourself.

[joelala]

Great win today.

[Ohfan67]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

Sometimes I feel like the board is divided into two camps, those who ignore Mountcastle’s flaws and those who exagggerate them. 
 

To be honest, my view/opinion of Mountcastle is way more variable than for most other current and former Orioles. Part of it is the streakiness of his hitting, but a small part of it has something to do with his personality. He's kind of a goofball personality no matter how he's hitting, which sometimes I find admirable but sometimes I think I want him to look miserable and he doesn't! Regardless, it's pretty irrational on my part. 

[foxfield]

On 4/23/2023 at 11:59 AM, RZNJ said:

Hays and Mountcastle have each played 20 games.   Mountcastle has 3 walks and 22 strikeouts.   Hays has 5 walks and 22 strikeouts.  Yet Hays is hitting .311 with a .935 OPS while Mountcastle is .212 and .704.      No conclusions.  Just thought it was interesting.

These are two guys who are pretty good when healthy but are also streaky and vulnerable.  Two guys who should be hearing footsteps from Norfolk and below.  It's a good spot to be in.  Both of these guys can help us if healthy and playing well.  We simply need them to be more consistent and that has been the issue.  Hays because he has struggled to stay 100% healthy and Mountcastle because his plate discipline is not great.

 

On 4/23/2023 at 1:36 PM, jrobb21613 said:

Who would you suggest  replace him?

There are options maybe not great today, but coming in the future for sure.  I don't worry about it long term and if Mounty was injured I think O'hearn or Kjerstad would be deployed.  I just think both of these guys are just routinely misvalued (not a great word) here.  Like someone said earlier, they are either overlooking their issues or overstating them.

[Frobby]

Good analysis of Mountcastle here, concluding that he’s been as unlucky as his wOBA/xwOBA differential suggests.  But, the lack of walks is a self-inflicted wound.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ryan-mountcastle-is-having-a-weird-one/

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Good analysis of Mountcastle here, concluding that he’s been as unlucky as his wOBA/xwOBA differential suggests.  But, the lack of walks is a self-inflicted wound.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ryan-mountcastle-is-having-a-weird-one/

His teammate writing this about him comes of as an apology.

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Good analysis of Mountcastle here, concluding that he’s been as unlucky as his wOBA/xwOBA differential suggests.  But, the lack of walks is a self-inflicted wound.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ryan-mountcastle-is-having-a-weird-one/

Quote

Mountcastle is hitting plenty of balls in the air, but he’s only pulled three fly balls so far this season. Two of those, incidentally, became home runs. So he should hit more of those, I guess.

Maybe impacted by the wall?

[owknows]

Mountcastle....

monster hero of the first half of of the month...

frozen fish for the last half...

Isn't this who he's always been?

A streak machine?

If you can endure the valley weeks.. the peak weeks are amazing.

 

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, owknows said:

Mountcastle....

monster hero of the first half of of the month...

frozen fish for the last half...

Isn't this who he's always been?

A streak machine?

If you can endure the valley weeks.. the peak weeks are amazing.

 

What I care about is the bottom line after all the hot and cold spells are in.  I’ve been hoping the cold streaks would be shorter this year.  We’ll see if they are.  

[owknows]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What I care about is the bottom line after all the hot and cold spells are in.  I’ve been hoping the cold streaks would be shorter this year.  We’ll see if they are.  

For sure...  And he's earned enough latitude that I think we'll find out.

The most immediate other options are mostly AAAAish journeymen anyway.

Perhaps a clever manager could game his streakiness by shifting his position in the order in accordance with the prevailing pattern.

[Just Regular]

I checked xwOBA on the Savant glossary, and it is silent on the metric considering direction.

Getting to read the prior linked Michael Baumann feature a bit closer, it had the split that measured by Home Runs per Fly Ball, Pulled beats Oppo 30-4.    The centerfielder, on the warning track, with his glove.

One of the Fangraphs commenters grabbed this play as an example of one xwOBA loves, but is mostly harmless IRL.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=48dd1fa4-7309-49c0-a763-5c043270fb60

I think it is probably reasonable to expect without closer to league average pull proficiency, he's doubtful to get all the way to his xwOBA.

Definition

Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA) is formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed.

In the same way that each batted ball is assigned an expected batting average, every batted ball is given a single, double, triple and home run probability based on the results of comparable batted balls since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015. For the majority of batted balls, this is achieved using only exit velocity and launch angle. As of 2019, "topped" or "weakly hit" balls also incorporate a batter's seasonal Sprint Speed.

Edited April 28, 2023 by Just Regular

[Brooks The Great]

On 4/26/2023 at 2:21 PM, owknows said:

Mountcastle....

monster hero of the first half of of the month...

frozen fish for the last half...

Isn't this who he's always been?

A streak machine?

If you can endure the valley weeks.. the peak weeks are amazing.

 

Yeah, I think he still is who he's always been. Which is a .300-.320 OBP, .750-.775 OPS player. Which ultimately is totally replaceable given the prospects the organization has.

At the trade deadline, I'd be trading away Urias, Santander, Mountcastle, and Mateo in that order (and Frazier in a salary dump). The Orioles need to properly allocate resources and open up playing time for the multiple top shelf prospects the organization has close to the majors.

[Billy F-Face3]

3 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

Yeah, I think he still is who he's always been. Which is a .300-.320 OBP, .750-.775 OPS player. Which ultimately is totally replaceable given the prospects the organization has.

At the trade deadline, I'd be trading away Urias, Santander, Mountcastle, and Mateo in that order (and Frazier in a salary dump). The Orioles need to properly allocate resources and open up playing time for the multiple top shelf prospects the organization has close to the majors.

Mike Elias and staff have proven they value Major League experience above all else, so I do not see any scenario where the dump all their Major League players in favor of talented young prospects until all those prospects have proven they are Major League regulars and starters of equal or greater value themselves.

For all his faults, and all his successes/talents, Ryan Mountcastle is here to stay as part of this team for a given length of time. I'm still happily celebrating his walk in last night's game that turned into a run scored when Anthony Santander blasted that home run right afterwards. My hope is that Ryan will see the value in taking a walk when they give it to him from here on out.

I also don't think people give enough credit to Mountcastle for his glove. He digs alot of shorthops and bad throws out of the dirt for our infielders.

[Ridgway22]

On 4/26/2023 at 10:50 AM, Frobby said:

Good analysis of Mountcastle here, concluding that he’s been as unlucky as his wOBA/xwOBA differential suggests.  But, the lack of walks is a self-inflicted wound.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ryan-mountcastle-is-having-a-weird-one/

Anecdotally, my frustration with Mounty at-bats is very similar to my Adam Jones frustrations from bygone days. It's a tease / tantalizing hope and prayer that if they can just learn to just lay off the out-of-the-zone offerings pitchers are serving (because they have a track record of fishing for them), pitchers would be forced to give in and throw them something they could barrel up, or, walk them.

Instead, it's like me when I see a tall blonde playing beach volleyball, I have no known defenses, puppy chasing fire truck, and I get (justifiably) smacked in the nuts by the wife. Then you see, on my face, the exact same look you see on Mounty's when he flails at yet another strike three that is two zip codes distant from the strike zone.

Now, to bring this current, watching Adley, Gunnar, and even Vavra, work counts, take pitches, and lay off the non-competitive crap, the contrast with Mountcastle is even brighter and even clearer. If Heston Kjerstad has the AR, GH, TV strike zone discipline, I'd be more than willing to see what we've got there, when he's ready, of course, or next Tuesday, whichever comes first.

I've been a big Mountcastle fan since he came up, but we're no longer tankers, we're contenders. Having due notice thereof, you may govern yourself accordingly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2023 by Ridgway22

[Il BuonO]

7 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

Yeah, I think he still is who he's always been. Which is a .300-.320 OBP, .750-.775 OPS player. Which ultimately is totally replaceable given the prospects the organization has.

At the trade deadline, I'd be trading away Urias, Santander, Mountcastle, and Mateo in that order (and Frazier in a salary dump). The Orioles need to properly allocate resources and open up playing time for the multiple top shelf prospects the organization has close to the majors.

Exactly this. Mountcastle is utterly replaceable. And the others, including Mateo, are blocking guys who need to be on the ML team.