The biggest development of 2023 will be…

[Frobby]

Just now, emmett16 said:

Maybe.  But when you look at their physicality and then you couple that with their baseball skills/talent you see something extremely unique and special.  We are talking about two massive physical specimens who have next level athletic abilities and baseball talent.  It's not often you see players with their size have the skills they have.  That alone raises both their floor and their ceiling.  

Don’t get me wrong, they both have huge upside.   I just think the downside risk for just about any highly ranked prospect is higher than most people appreciate.  

[emmett16]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Don’t get me wrong, they both have huge upside.   I just think the downside risk for just about any highly ranked prospect is higher than most people appreciate.  

I agree and understand that prospects fail more often than they hit.  Those guys just look different than other players I've seen over the years.  And to hear comments from Basallo like (and i'm paraphrasing) "I don't want to just be the best player in Oriole's history, but the best player in baseball history" sends shivers down my spine.  (trying to locate where I found that quote)

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I agree and understand that prospects fail more often than they hit.  Those guys just look different than other players I've seen over the years.  And to hear comments from Basallo like (and i'm paraphrasing) "I don't want to just be the best player in Oriole's history, but the best player in baseball history" sends shivers down my spine.  (trying to locate where I found that quote)

Tony’s write-up on Basallo said that.  

[dystopia]

On 2/8/2023 at 5:47 PM, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Gunnar Henderson has a ROY season that blows away all expectations and it contributes to the Orioles winning 90 or more games.

Can I have your crystal ball?

[Just Regular]

I reviewed the Minors from 2014-2023 for players Age 21 and Under who posted 99 wRC (the counting stat) seasons....MLB-wide I saw 42 of them.     The 99 not 100 was a cherry-pick granted - it was precisely what Gunnar and Basallo did by Fangraphs numbers.

All 30 Clubs the last decade produced about 5 such player-seasons on average - Mayo, Holliday and Basallo all had them in 2023.

Coby Mayo's 124 wRC were the most in the sample; 2nd place was 2014 Matt Olson with 123.    That finding gives me a new detail to pin some best case Coby Mayo hopes on.

Samuel Basallo was the only player to post 99 wRC in his Age 18 season, though in 2017 Fernando Tatis and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr were other 18 year olds in the high 90's.

Today I'd bin the players who managed that accomplishment like:

Stars (10) - Matt Olson, Corey Seager, Ronald Acuna, Bo Bichette, Luis Robert, Riley Greene, Bobby Witt, Spencer Torkelson, Corbin Carroll, Gunnar Henderson

Solid (10) - Joey Gallo, Brandon Drury, Ryan McMahon, Ramon Laureano, Austin Hays, Alex Kirilloff, Gavin Lux, Dylan Carlson, Anthony Volpe, Alek Thomas

Busts (6) - Daniel Robertson, Brett Phillips (the only player to meet this filter twice), Clint Coulter, DJ Peters, Kevin Smith, Mason Martin

Too Early - Andy Pages, Miguel Vargas, Eddys Leonard, Edgar Quero, Grant McCray, Adael Amador, Thomas Saggese (one of the Jordan Montgomery trade guys), Cole Young, Colt Keith, Junior Caminero, Jett Williams, Owen Caissie

Our Guys - Coby Mayo, Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo

Anthony Santander was just a little short of the standard in 2016 before he became an Oriole.     

 

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

 

Busts (6) - Daniel Robertson, Brett Phillips (the only player to meet this filter twice), Clint Coulter, DJ Peters, Kevin Smith, Mason Martin

Apparently this age/stat combo didn’t fool evaluators much.  None of these six ever were ranked in the BA top 50, and three (Coulter, Smith and Martin) were never ranked at all.  Still, that’s a decent track record for the 26 “not too early” players.   

[LookinUp]

On 12/16/2023 at 12:46 PM, emmett16 said:

Maybe.  But when you look at their physicality and then you couple that with their baseball skills/talent you see something extremely unique and special.  We are talking about two massive physical specimens who have next level athletic abilities and baseball talent.  It's not often you see players with their size have the skills they have.  That alone raises both their floor and their ceiling.  I'll go out on a limb and say that Basallo's ceiling is higher than Adley's and, were it not for the defense and foot speed, Mayo's ceiling is higher than Gunnars.  I think offensively Mayo's ceiling is higher but Gunnar beats him out on defense.  

It’s their age that sets them apart. All 3 are very young for their level. That’s a sign.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 12/16/2023 at 1:16 PM, dystopia said:

Can I have your crystal ball?

Who's winning ROY in 2024.  Also what will be the score for the Super Bowl?  Winning lottery numbers for tomorrow?